1. Miss St
2. Florida St
3. Alabama
4. Baylor
5. TCU
6. Oregon
7. Arizona St
8. Auburn
9. Mississippi
10. Ohio St
11. Kansas St
12. Nebraska
13. Notre Dame
14. LSU
15. Michigan St
16. UCLA
17. Texas A&M
18. Wisconsin
19. Georgia
20. Clemson
21. Arizona
22. Utah
23. USC
24. Duke
25. Oklahoma
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Sunday, November 2, 2014
11/2 Poll
1). Miss St
2). Florida St
3). Auburn
4). Kansas St
5). Notre Dame
6). Alabama
7). Baylor
8). TCU
9). Oregon
10). Michigan St
11). LSU
12). Mississippi
13). Nebraska
14). Oklahoma
15) Arizona St
16). Utah
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Wisconsin
20). Georgia
21). Clemson
22). UCLA
23). Arizona
24). USC
25). Duke
2). Florida St
3). Auburn
4). Kansas St
5). Notre Dame
6). Alabama
7). Baylor
8). TCU
9). Oregon
10). Michigan St
11). LSU
12). Mississippi
13). Nebraska
14). Oklahoma
15) Arizona St
16). Utah
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Wisconsin
20). Georgia
21). Clemson
22). UCLA
23). Arizona
24). USC
25). Duke
Sunday, October 26, 2014
College Football notes 10/26
The 1st rankings for the College Football playoff are set to be released, and it is time as we enter November next weekend to look at who the Final 4 will be for the 2014 season. The main arguing points look to be whether or not to place conference champions in over non conference champions with better resumes.
As of now, the candidates appear to be:
The SEC West champ - I think the winner of this division will have 1 or fewer losses and should be in regardless of the result in the SEC Championship game.
The SEC East champ - If it's Georgia, they could lose to Auburn, win the East with 2 losses, and have a shot to get in by winning the SEC.
The SEC West runner up - If Miss State wins the SECW and the Auburn-Alabama winner has 1 loss, they should represent a second SEC bid.
One loss Big 10 champ - If it's Michigan St or Ohio St, there's definitely a chance the Big 10 gets a bid. Michigan State needs to win out, have Oregon lose again, and have the SEC West winner win the SEC.
One loss PAC 12 champ - This will probably have to be Oregon on the strength of their win over Michigan St. Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah all have 1 loss from the South, but have to play each other and Arizona St has Notre Dame as well.
Florida State - Should win out easily and will likely be #1 seed for the playoff.
Notre Dame - Will have the best loss of 1 loss teams if they win out, still have USC and Arizona St
The Big 12 Champ - A 1 loss Big 12 Champ would definitely be in the mix as well, but don't count on it being Kansas State as they still have trips to WVU, Baylor, and TCU. The Horned Frogs have a great shot at getting in position for the Final Four with a win over WVU next week.
So worst case scenario for Big 12/PAC 12/Big 10 fans is unbeaten Miss St wins SEC Champ game, 1 loss Auburn beats Alabama, and FSU/Notre Dame win out. I think that would put us with:
1). Miss St
2). FSU
3). Auburn
4). Notre Dame
I assume the committee will try and avoid rematches in the 1st round like 2 SECs or FSU/ND.
If there are no 0 or 1 loss SEC teams besides the champ and Notre Dame loses to say, Arizona St, that opens up spots for potential 1 loss champs from Big 10/PAC 12/Big 12. We could have this scenario:
1). FSU
2). Alabama
3). TCU
4). Oregon
This is where my "Michigan St needs Oregon to lose" comment comes into play. If they both have 1 loss, it's an easy choice for the committee to put Oregon in on the strength of their H2H win.Michigan St
Still lots of possibilities, I say there are still 17-18 teams that have a legitimate shot at the Final Four if they win out.
Heisman Poll 10/26
1). Dak Prescott
2). Melvin Gordon
3). Ameer Abdullah
4). Marcus Mariota
5). Nick Marshall
Top 25 10/26
1). Miss St
2). Florida St
3). Notre Dame
4). Auburn
5). Mississippi
6). Alabama
7). Kansas St
8). Baylor
9). TCU
10). Arizona
11). Oregon
12). Michigan St
13). Georgia
14). LSU
15) Nebraska
16). Oklahoma
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Clemson
20). Arizona St
21). Utah
22). Wisconsin
23). UCLA
24). USC
25). Stanford
As of now, the candidates appear to be:
The SEC West champ - I think the winner of this division will have 1 or fewer losses and should be in regardless of the result in the SEC Championship game.
The SEC East champ - If it's Georgia, they could lose to Auburn, win the East with 2 losses, and have a shot to get in by winning the SEC.
The SEC West runner up - If Miss State wins the SECW and the Auburn-Alabama winner has 1 loss, they should represent a second SEC bid.
One loss Big 10 champ - If it's Michigan St or Ohio St, there's definitely a chance the Big 10 gets a bid. Michigan State needs to win out, have Oregon lose again, and have the SEC West winner win the SEC.
One loss PAC 12 champ - This will probably have to be Oregon on the strength of their win over Michigan St. Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah all have 1 loss from the South, but have to play each other and Arizona St has Notre Dame as well.
Florida State - Should win out easily and will likely be #1 seed for the playoff.
Notre Dame - Will have the best loss of 1 loss teams if they win out, still have USC and Arizona St
The Big 12 Champ - A 1 loss Big 12 Champ would definitely be in the mix as well, but don't count on it being Kansas State as they still have trips to WVU, Baylor, and TCU. The Horned Frogs have a great shot at getting in position for the Final Four with a win over WVU next week.
So worst case scenario for Big 12/PAC 12/Big 10 fans is unbeaten Miss St wins SEC Champ game, 1 loss Auburn beats Alabama, and FSU/Notre Dame win out. I think that would put us with:
1). Miss St
2). FSU
3). Auburn
4). Notre Dame
I assume the committee will try and avoid rematches in the 1st round like 2 SECs or FSU/ND.
If there are no 0 or 1 loss SEC teams besides the champ and Notre Dame loses to say, Arizona St, that opens up spots for potential 1 loss champs from Big 10/PAC 12/Big 12. We could have this scenario:
1). FSU
2). Alabama
3). TCU
4). Oregon
This is where my "Michigan St needs Oregon to lose" comment comes into play. If they both have 1 loss, it's an easy choice for the committee to put Oregon in on the strength of their H2H win.Michigan St
Still lots of possibilities, I say there are still 17-18 teams that have a legitimate shot at the Final Four if they win out.
Heisman Poll 10/26
1). Dak Prescott
2). Melvin Gordon
3). Ameer Abdullah
4). Marcus Mariota
5). Nick Marshall
Top 25 10/26
1). Miss St
2). Florida St
3). Notre Dame
4). Auburn
5). Mississippi
6). Alabama
7). Kansas St
8). Baylor
9). TCU
10). Arizona
11). Oregon
12). Michigan St
13). Georgia
14). LSU
15) Nebraska
16). Oklahoma
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Clemson
20). Arizona St
21). Utah
22). Wisconsin
23). UCLA
24). USC
25). Stanford
Sunday, October 12, 2014
10/12 Poll and Heisman Ballot
Heisman Ballot:
1). Dak Prescott
2). Melvin Gordon
3). Marcus Mariota
4). Ameer Abdullah
5). Bryce Petty
Poll
1). Mississippi St
2). Mississippi
3). Baylor
4). Florida St
5). Notre Dame
6). Auburn
7). Alabama
8). TCU
9). Oklahoma
10) Texas A&M
11). Arizona
12). Oregon
13). Michigan St
14). Oklahoma St
15). Georgia
16). Kansas St
17). West Virginia
18). Minnesota
19). LSU
20). Clemson
21). Arizona St
22). USC
23). Stanford
24). Nebraska
25). Washington
Sunday, October 5, 2014
10/5 Poll
1. Auburn
2. Mississippi St
3. TCU
4. Florida St
5. Mississippi
6. Baylor
7. Notre Dame
8. Arizona
9. Oregon
10. Alabama
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma St
15. Michigan St
16. Kansas St
17. Nebraska
18. Clemson
19. Ohio St
20. Utah
21. LSU
22. UCLA
23. California
24. Arkansas
25. Missouri
2. Mississippi St
3. TCU
4. Florida St
5. Mississippi
6. Baylor
7. Notre Dame
8. Arizona
9. Oregon
10. Alabama
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma St
15. Michigan St
16. Kansas St
17. Nebraska
18. Clemson
19. Ohio St
20. Utah
21. LSU
22. UCLA
23. California
24. Arkansas
25. Missouri
Sunday, September 28, 2014
College Football Top 25
Now is the time to truly get a sense of our top 25 teams, and it's wide open as usual heading into October.
1. Oklahoma
2. Auburn
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. Florida St
6. Texas A&M
7. Baylor
8. UCLA
9. Mississippi St
10. Michigan St
11. Notre Dame
12. Mississippi
13. Oklahoma St
14. Georgia
15. BYU
16. LSU
17. Wisconsin
18. Nebraska
19. USC
20. Stanford
21. Kansas St
22. Clemson
23. Arizona
24. Arkansas
25. Ohio St
1. Oklahoma
2. Auburn
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. Florida St
6. Texas A&M
7. Baylor
8. UCLA
9. Mississippi St
10. Michigan St
11. Notre Dame
12. Mississippi
13. Oklahoma St
14. Georgia
15. BYU
16. LSU
17. Wisconsin
18. Nebraska
19. USC
20. Stanford
21. Kansas St
22. Clemson
23. Arizona
24. Arkansas
25. Ohio St
Sunday, September 7, 2014
The fall of the Big 10
The fall of the Big 10 is now complete. The once power conference, who had a run throughout much of college football history where you argue their supremacy over other conferences, has reached rock bottom. Once a threat to compete for the #1 final ranking year in and year out, the Big 10 is now no more than an afterthought.
The conference started winning national titles in the early 1900's and continued to churn out champs every few years until this recent stretch. The last title was the 2002 Ohio State team, and before them Michigan and Penn State claimed trophies in the 90's. We started to see the decline when mid-2000's Buckeye teams were manhandled by the likes of Florida and LSU in BCS Title games. The downward slide in quality of teams became more apparent the last couple of years with only 2 Rose Bowl wins since 2000. Michigan has been in decline for some time now, and the addition of former power Nebraska has done about as much to boost the conferences depth as Miami has in the ACC.
But after yesterday, we can comfortably say the league is nationally insignificant. Sure, Penn State-Ohio State and Nebraska-Wisconsin will have some meaning in the mid-west, but not much interest anywhere else. For those that missed it, a quick run-down of the Big 10's results from yesterday by category of disaster.
Group 1 - The "Top Tier" teams
1) Michigan State played well in Eugene and looked ready to make a statement, but Oregon outscored MSU 28-3 in the 2nd half and routed the Spartans.
2) Michigan failed to compete against Notre Dame, failing to score (after putting up 41 last year) and being humiliated by the Irish 31-0.
3) Pre-Season favorite Ohio State followed up their sluggish performance against Navy by getting rolled by Virginia Tech at home, 35-21.
4) Northwestern, a team thought to be on the rise, fell to 0-2 after losing at home to Northern Illinois.
5) Wisconsin rolled over FCS Western Illinois, but their collapse against LSU in Week 1 was magnified by the above results in week 2. The league really needed that win to point to after yesterdays results.
Group 2 - The "They've been good, maybe they are better this year" teams (spoiler alert: They aren't)
1) Nebraska needed a 58 yard TD with 20 seconds left to hold off FCS McNeese State.
2) Iowa scored with a minute to play to take their 1st lead of the game and beat Ball State 17-13
3) More MAC problems for Purdue, who were blitzed by Central Michigan 38-17
4) Maryland turned the ball over 6 times against USF (who beat FCS Western Carolina 36-31 in week 1) but came back to win 24-17.
Group 3 - The "there's no way they are that bad" teams
1) Rutgers followed up a decent win over Wazzu last week with an ugly 38-25 win over FCS Howard, who were beaten by Akron 41-0 in week 1.
2) Minnesota looks OK from the outside at 2-0, but an 11 point win over MTSU when your QB completes 6 passes (1 to the Blue Raiders) for 67 yards is certainly alarming.
Group 4 - The "Please God let them keep winning so we can have a team in the top 25" tea
1) Penn State is 2-0 with a quality win over UCF.
There's your good news, Big 10 fans...you are counting on Penn State.
There was a time when the Big 10 was a league of big, tough, fast studs that could go head to head with anybody, anywhere. But that time has come and gone.
The conference started winning national titles in the early 1900's and continued to churn out champs every few years until this recent stretch. The last title was the 2002 Ohio State team, and before them Michigan and Penn State claimed trophies in the 90's. We started to see the decline when mid-2000's Buckeye teams were manhandled by the likes of Florida and LSU in BCS Title games. The downward slide in quality of teams became more apparent the last couple of years with only 2 Rose Bowl wins since 2000. Michigan has been in decline for some time now, and the addition of former power Nebraska has done about as much to boost the conferences depth as Miami has in the ACC.
But after yesterday, we can comfortably say the league is nationally insignificant. Sure, Penn State-Ohio State and Nebraska-Wisconsin will have some meaning in the mid-west, but not much interest anywhere else. For those that missed it, a quick run-down of the Big 10's results from yesterday by category of disaster.
Group 1 - The "Top Tier" teams
1) Michigan State played well in Eugene and looked ready to make a statement, but Oregon outscored MSU 28-3 in the 2nd half and routed the Spartans.
2) Michigan failed to compete against Notre Dame, failing to score (after putting up 41 last year) and being humiliated by the Irish 31-0.
3) Pre-Season favorite Ohio State followed up their sluggish performance against Navy by getting rolled by Virginia Tech at home, 35-21.
4) Northwestern, a team thought to be on the rise, fell to 0-2 after losing at home to Northern Illinois.
5) Wisconsin rolled over FCS Western Illinois, but their collapse against LSU in Week 1 was magnified by the above results in week 2. The league really needed that win to point to after yesterdays results.
Group 2 - The "They've been good, maybe they are better this year" teams (spoiler alert: They aren't)
1) Nebraska needed a 58 yard TD with 20 seconds left to hold off FCS McNeese State.
2) Iowa scored with a minute to play to take their 1st lead of the game and beat Ball State 17-13
3) More MAC problems for Purdue, who were blitzed by Central Michigan 38-17
4) Maryland turned the ball over 6 times against USF (who beat FCS Western Carolina 36-31 in week 1) but came back to win 24-17.
Group 3 - The "there's no way they are that bad" teams
1) Rutgers followed up a decent win over Wazzu last week with an ugly 38-25 win over FCS Howard, who were beaten by Akron 41-0 in week 1.
2) Minnesota looks OK from the outside at 2-0, but an 11 point win over MTSU when your QB completes 6 passes (1 to the Blue Raiders) for 67 yards is certainly alarming.
Group 4 - The "Please God let them keep winning so we can have a team in the top 25" tea
1) Penn State is 2-0 with a quality win over UCF.
There's your good news, Big 10 fans...you are counting on Penn State.
There was a time when the Big 10 was a league of big, tough, fast studs that could go head to head with anybody, anywhere. But that time has come and gone.
You should all be ashamed of yourselves....
All of you. I don't know how many there are, but more than just a few voters clearly don't understand how to vote in the top 25. The USA Today poll came out today and Ohio State is ranked #18 and Virginia Tech is #19. Are you serious? They just played, and VT beat OSU handily. So, because in your pre-season poll where you had no idea how good any team actually was, you thought OSU was top 5 and VT was not a top 25 team means you can't drop OSU too far or move VT that far up?
Nonsense. Everyone who voted OSU ahead of VT clearly doesn't have a clue and should be stripped of their vote. You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
Nonsense. Everyone who voted OSU ahead of VT clearly doesn't have a clue and should be stripped of their vote. You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
Sunday, August 31, 2014
How to vote in a College Football Poll
There will always be preseason college football polls. As ridiculous as they are, they produce things that media outlets such as ESPN love: web clicks, debate topics, and reveal shows. The new committee that will decide the sports first "Final 4" later this year won't announce their 1st poll until late October, and that's really the only poll that matters. Nevertheless, if we are forced to see numbers next to a schools name in September, let's at least vote the correct way.
Here is the list of rules all voters should follow:
1) Watch multiple games each Saturday from multiple conferences
2) Don't give unwarranted credit to a team you picked high in the preseason
3) Don't ever rank a team behind a team it has beaten, especially if they have a better record (see rule 2)
4) Don't give unwarranted credit to a team because of how they performed last season
5) a. Give credit to those who beat quality opponents
b. Don't take credit away when losing while playing well to higher ranked (or unranked) team
So that brings us to Week 1, where the AP Poll heading into Wednesday's opener was:
1) FSU
2) Bama
3) Oregon
4) Oklahoma
5) Ohio St
6) Auburn
7) UCLA
8) Michigan St
9) South Carolina
10) Baylor
11) Stanford
12) Georgia
13) LSU
14) Wisconsin
15) USC
16) Clemson
17) Notre Dame
18) Ole Miss
19) Arizona St
20) Kansas St
21) Texas A&M
22) Nebraska
23) North Carolina
24) Missouri
25) Washington
Heading into Sunday, the only teams to lose in the top 25 were South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Clemson. South Carolina showed little in their game to deserve a spot for week 2, they will have to play their way back in after losing at home. Wisconsin (14th) had a 17 point 2nd half lead against the #13 and lost by 4 at a neutral site. No need to drop Wisconsin because of that performance (see rule 5b). Clemson lost on the road to a higher ranked team and the game was tied in the 2nd half. The Tigers are likely to be the toughest to rank this week, as they failed to compete in the 2nd half, giving up 31 straight points.
The others all won, some more impressively than others. Washington definitely will not return to the poll as they squeaked past Hawaii by a point. Missouri and North Carolina were very unimpressive in wins over FCS schools, and others dominated weak competition and we still don't know much about them.
As for unranked teams, Oklahoma State absolutely looked the part of a top 25 team in their loss to FSU, which was a one score game. West Virginia made a strong case too, playing Alabama tough and showing promise on both sides of the ball. Penn State looked to boast a top 5 QB in the country in their win overseas. Cal beat up on a good Northwestern team, and Texas/Michigan overwhelmed a couple of over-matched opponents. All of these unranked teams will receive consideration for the poll this week.
So, considering there are still 6 teams left to play this week, if I had to release a poll this morning, it would look like this:
1. Florida State
2. Texas A&M
3. Auburn
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Alabama
8. Michigan St
9. LSU
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. UCLA
13. Wisconsin
14. Oklahoma St
15. USC
16. Arizona St
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. Penn State
20. Clemson
21. California
22. Nebraska
23. West Virginia
24. Texas
25. Arizona
It's not that complicated - play well and move up, play poorly and drop.
What needs to stop is teams keeping their ranking just because they won, even if they looked bad in doing so, like UCLA and Ohio State. No need to place those teams anywhere near the top 5 after what we saw from them. No need to drop teams just because they lost if they did so to a higher ranked team. That's the idea of the poll, to rank the teams from best to 25th best, so if #14 loses to #1 by 6 points on a neutral site, why drop them from #14? Seems like that ranking was appropriate based on the results.
So rank them yourselves if you wish, and feel free to use the rules I posted above. If we are always going to have these August and September polls, we might as well do it right.
Here is the list of rules all voters should follow:
1) Watch multiple games each Saturday from multiple conferences
2) Don't give unwarranted credit to a team you picked high in the preseason
3) Don't ever rank a team behind a team it has beaten, especially if they have a better record (see rule 2)
4) Don't give unwarranted credit to a team because of how they performed last season
5) a. Give credit to those who beat quality opponents
b. Don't take credit away when losing while playing well to higher ranked (or unranked) team
So that brings us to Week 1, where the AP Poll heading into Wednesday's opener was:
1) FSU
2) Bama
3) Oregon
4) Oklahoma
5) Ohio St
6) Auburn
7) UCLA
8) Michigan St
9) South Carolina
10) Baylor
11) Stanford
12) Georgia
13) LSU
14) Wisconsin
15) USC
16) Clemson
17) Notre Dame
18) Ole Miss
19) Arizona St
20) Kansas St
21) Texas A&M
22) Nebraska
23) North Carolina
24) Missouri
25) Washington
Heading into Sunday, the only teams to lose in the top 25 were South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Clemson. South Carolina showed little in their game to deserve a spot for week 2, they will have to play their way back in after losing at home. Wisconsin (14th) had a 17 point 2nd half lead against the #13 and lost by 4 at a neutral site. No need to drop Wisconsin because of that performance (see rule 5b). Clemson lost on the road to a higher ranked team and the game was tied in the 2nd half. The Tigers are likely to be the toughest to rank this week, as they failed to compete in the 2nd half, giving up 31 straight points.
The others all won, some more impressively than others. Washington definitely will not return to the poll as they squeaked past Hawaii by a point. Missouri and North Carolina were very unimpressive in wins over FCS schools, and others dominated weak competition and we still don't know much about them.
As for unranked teams, Oklahoma State absolutely looked the part of a top 25 team in their loss to FSU, which was a one score game. West Virginia made a strong case too, playing Alabama tough and showing promise on both sides of the ball. Penn State looked to boast a top 5 QB in the country in their win overseas. Cal beat up on a good Northwestern team, and Texas/Michigan overwhelmed a couple of over-matched opponents. All of these unranked teams will receive consideration for the poll this week.
So, considering there are still 6 teams left to play this week, if I had to release a poll this morning, it would look like this:
1. Florida State
2. Texas A&M
3. Auburn
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Alabama
8. Michigan St
9. LSU
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. UCLA
13. Wisconsin
14. Oklahoma St
15. USC
16. Arizona St
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. Penn State
20. Clemson
21. California
22. Nebraska
23. West Virginia
24. Texas
25. Arizona
It's not that complicated - play well and move up, play poorly and drop.
What needs to stop is teams keeping their ranking just because they won, even if they looked bad in doing so, like UCLA and Ohio State. No need to place those teams anywhere near the top 5 after what we saw from them. No need to drop teams just because they lost if they did so to a higher ranked team. That's the idea of the poll, to rank the teams from best to 25th best, so if #14 loses to #1 by 6 points on a neutral site, why drop them from #14? Seems like that ranking was appropriate based on the results.
So rank them yourselves if you wish, and feel free to use the rules I posted above. If we are always going to have these August and September polls, we might as well do it right.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
College football thoughts
Well, we've seen 4 weeks worth of games and with October approaching next week, it's time to see what we've learned so far in 2013.
1). Of the 6 SEC teams that finished in the top 12 last year, only LSU and UGA appear to be as good as last years versions.
2). The Big 10 and Big 12 are still without any really good teams.
3). The PAC-12 is clearly the 2nd best league and Oregon may be the nations top team
4). The ACC is improved and their championship game may actually mean something this year.
5). Louisville will go unbeaten, but they won't deserve a spot in the title game.
Predictions
1). Melvin Gordon gets a Heisman invite - dude is legit threat to go for 2,000 yards this year
2). LSU-UGA next week is a SECCG preview
3). The game of the year will be FSU-Clemson
4). Stanford will give Oregon fits again, but the Ducks win this time
5). 2 of the top 3 jobs in the country will be open this off-season in USC/Texas. The 3rd (Florida) may be open soon as well
Top 25 Poll for 9/22
1). Oregon
2). Alabama
3). LSU
4). Stanford
5). Clemson
6). Florida St
7). Georgia
8). Texas A&M
9). Ohio State
10) Oklahoma St
11). Louisville
12). Miami
13). Oklahoma
14). South Carolina
15). Washington
16) Mississippi
17). Northwestern
18). UCLA
19). Florida
20). Maryland
21). Michigan
22). Baylor
23). Fresno St
24). Arizona
25). Missouri
1). Of the 6 SEC teams that finished in the top 12 last year, only LSU and UGA appear to be as good as last years versions.
2). The Big 10 and Big 12 are still without any really good teams.
3). The PAC-12 is clearly the 2nd best league and Oregon may be the nations top team
4). The ACC is improved and their championship game may actually mean something this year.
5). Louisville will go unbeaten, but they won't deserve a spot in the title game.
Predictions
1). Melvin Gordon gets a Heisman invite - dude is legit threat to go for 2,000 yards this year
2). LSU-UGA next week is a SECCG preview
3). The game of the year will be FSU-Clemson
4). Stanford will give Oregon fits again, but the Ducks win this time
5). 2 of the top 3 jobs in the country will be open this off-season in USC/Texas. The 3rd (Florida) may be open soon as well
Top 25 Poll for 9/22
1). Oregon
2). Alabama
3). LSU
4). Stanford
5). Clemson
6). Florida St
7). Georgia
8). Texas A&M
9). Ohio State
10) Oklahoma St
11). Louisville
12). Miami
13). Oklahoma
14). South Carolina
15). Washington
16) Mississippi
17). Northwestern
18). UCLA
19). Florida
20). Maryland
21). Michigan
22). Baylor
23). Fresno St
24). Arizona
25). Missouri
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Braves dropping like flies
The Braves list of injuries continued to mount today as Brandon Beachy received the call to visit Dr. James Andrews. With Jason Heyward going down yesterday with a broken jaw, Tim Hudson's ankle getting crushed, Tyler Pastornicky's ACL, and Dan Uggla's eyesight, the last several weeks haven't been kind. However, the team continues to win and is in little danger of missing the playoffs.
But this injury thing has just gotten silly. It was bad early with Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Christian Martinez, and Ramiro Pena going down with serious injuries. Then the injury bug calmed down a bit, but Paul Maholm, Evan Gattis, Jordan Schafer, and Reed Johnson still missed some time.
These latest injuries have been the worst of the bunch, but this Braves team seems has been good all year at picking each other up. The rotation still has Mike Minor and Julio Teheran at the top and rookie Alex Wood has been dominant in his August starts. The team really needs Maholm to regain his April form and team up with Kris Medlen to solidify the rotation.
The bats can overcome the Heyward loss for a while, and maybe he can return before the end of September since his jaw didn't need to be wired shut. If anything, these injuries will give guys like Schafer, Gattis, and others more playing time as the team prepares for the postseason.
This years version of the Braves has looked like a dangerous October team all year. Their overall depth and dominant bullpen still make them a threat in a series against anyone. Having a 15 game lead gives you options and time to rest.
The Braves won 12 postseason series from 1991-2001 but are 0-5 since plus last years Wild Card debacle. This needs to be the team to break the drought. Let's just hope there are enough healthy players to field a team this fall.
But this injury thing has just gotten silly. It was bad early with Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Christian Martinez, and Ramiro Pena going down with serious injuries. Then the injury bug calmed down a bit, but Paul Maholm, Evan Gattis, Jordan Schafer, and Reed Johnson still missed some time.
These latest injuries have been the worst of the bunch, but this Braves team seems has been good all year at picking each other up. The rotation still has Mike Minor and Julio Teheran at the top and rookie Alex Wood has been dominant in his August starts. The team really needs Maholm to regain his April form and team up with Kris Medlen to solidify the rotation.
The bats can overcome the Heyward loss for a while, and maybe he can return before the end of September since his jaw didn't need to be wired shut. If anything, these injuries will give guys like Schafer, Gattis, and others more playing time as the team prepares for the postseason.
This years version of the Braves has looked like a dangerous October team all year. Their overall depth and dominant bullpen still make them a threat in a series against anyone. Having a 15 game lead gives you options and time to rest.
The Braves won 12 postseason series from 1991-2001 but are 0-5 since plus last years Wild Card debacle. This needs to be the team to break the drought. Let's just hope there are enough healthy players to field a team this fall.
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
The Rise of Craig Kimbrel
Every MLB team wants a great closer. A guy the manager can call on in the 9th inning in a tight game and everyone in the parks knows the game is all but done.
When the Braves drafted Craig Kimbrel in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft out of Wallace State CC, his initial dominance was such that he quickly moved up in the Braves farm system. Assigned to Danville after signing, he posted a 0.47 ERA in 12 games and picked up 6 saves. After a brief stop in Rome with 10 more appearances with a sub 1 ERA and a ton of K's, Craig was already in Myrtle Beach.
The 2009 season saw Kimbrel end in AAA Gwinnett, but not before some trouble with control came up early in the 09 season in Myrtle Beach. He allowed 28 walks in 26 innings, leading to a career high 5.47 ERA, but straightened things out in time to complete 12 dominant innings in AA Mississippi before his AAA debut.
However, the 2010 season was when Kimbrel went from prospect to legend. His AAA numbers that year included a 1.62 ERA, 23 saves, and 83 K's in 55 innings. Kimbrel made his MLB debut on May 7th and although control was an issue at times, he still finished 4-0 with a 0.44 ERA.
Those numbers turned a few heads, but most scouts didn't think he could go through an entire MLB season with similar numbers. He was on the radar as an up and coming closer, but not many predicted the Rookie of the Year season Craig put together in 2011. He had ridiculous numbers - 127 K's, 46 saves, 64 games, and was one of the best closers in the game.
So after an All-Star rookie season, most Braves fans hoped he could stay healthy and maybe produce similar numbers the next year. Little did we know then, his 2011 season was just the beginning.
Craig Kimbrel in 2012 posted one of the best relief pitcher seasons of all-time. The legendary Dennis Eckersley posted 7-1/1.91/51S/93 K's in his 1992 MVP season. Eric Gagne in his 2003 Cy Young season put up 2-3/1.20/55S/137 K's.
Kimbrel's 2012 season was right up there with those 2 recent examples. Craig finished the year 3-1/1.01/42S/117 K's - and he did all this in 62 innings while the other 2 worked 80+ in their seasons.
Also in 2012, Kimbrel worked 17 straight scoreless innings and then finished the season on another 13.1 inning streak. An incredible year, one that certainly wouldn't be topped by Kimbrel, or anyone else, in the near future.
But then 2013 happened. After pitching his first 8.2 innings in '13 without giving up a run, it appeared Craig Kimbrel was human after all. A Dexter Fowler double led to the seasons first blown save and a David Wright home run gave Craig back-to-back blown saves. Just 4 days later, Devin Mesoraco and Shin-Soo Choo both left the park against the Braves closer and there was now some worry across Braves nation.
But not that much worry.
The only blemish on Kimbrel's last 31 appearances since the blown save in Cincinnati on May 7th is a Texas-Leaguer to right by Donovan Solano that tied the game in the game in Miami on July 4th.
Kimbrel has lowered his ERA from 3.38 to 1.22 in this current stretch and has picked up a save in his last 12 appearances, putting him on a 50 save pace at this point.
His 1.41 career ERA, 124 saves, 353 K's in 204 innings are too large of a sample size to dismiss as a guy the league hasn't "figured out.". Mariano Rivera is without a doubt the greates closer of all time, but Kimbrel's performance from 2011-13 is one that no reliever in MLB history can match.
Every MLB team wants a great closer, that reassurance that if it's close late, there is no worry. The Atlanta Braves don't just have a great closer - they have an all-timer at the closer position...and he's only 25 years old.
When the Braves drafted Craig Kimbrel in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft out of Wallace State CC, his initial dominance was such that he quickly moved up in the Braves farm system. Assigned to Danville after signing, he posted a 0.47 ERA in 12 games and picked up 6 saves. After a brief stop in Rome with 10 more appearances with a sub 1 ERA and a ton of K's, Craig was already in Myrtle Beach.
The 2009 season saw Kimbrel end in AAA Gwinnett, but not before some trouble with control came up early in the 09 season in Myrtle Beach. He allowed 28 walks in 26 innings, leading to a career high 5.47 ERA, but straightened things out in time to complete 12 dominant innings in AA Mississippi before his AAA debut.
However, the 2010 season was when Kimbrel went from prospect to legend. His AAA numbers that year included a 1.62 ERA, 23 saves, and 83 K's in 55 innings. Kimbrel made his MLB debut on May 7th and although control was an issue at times, he still finished 4-0 with a 0.44 ERA.
Those numbers turned a few heads, but most scouts didn't think he could go through an entire MLB season with similar numbers. He was on the radar as an up and coming closer, but not many predicted the Rookie of the Year season Craig put together in 2011. He had ridiculous numbers - 127 K's, 46 saves, 64 games, and was one of the best closers in the game.
So after an All-Star rookie season, most Braves fans hoped he could stay healthy and maybe produce similar numbers the next year. Little did we know then, his 2011 season was just the beginning.
Craig Kimbrel in 2012 posted one of the best relief pitcher seasons of all-time. The legendary Dennis Eckersley posted 7-1/1.91/51S/93 K's in his 1992 MVP season. Eric Gagne in his 2003 Cy Young season put up 2-3/1.20/55S/137 K's.
Kimbrel's 2012 season was right up there with those 2 recent examples. Craig finished the year 3-1/1.01/42S/117 K's - and he did all this in 62 innings while the other 2 worked 80+ in their seasons.
Also in 2012, Kimbrel worked 17 straight scoreless innings and then finished the season on another 13.1 inning streak. An incredible year, one that certainly wouldn't be topped by Kimbrel, or anyone else, in the near future.
But then 2013 happened. After pitching his first 8.2 innings in '13 without giving up a run, it appeared Craig Kimbrel was human after all. A Dexter Fowler double led to the seasons first blown save and a David Wright home run gave Craig back-to-back blown saves. Just 4 days later, Devin Mesoraco and Shin-Soo Choo both left the park against the Braves closer and there was now some worry across Braves nation.
But not that much worry.
The only blemish on Kimbrel's last 31 appearances since the blown save in Cincinnati on May 7th is a Texas-Leaguer to right by Donovan Solano that tied the game in the game in Miami on July 4th.
Kimbrel has lowered his ERA from 3.38 to 1.22 in this current stretch and has picked up a save in his last 12 appearances, putting him on a 50 save pace at this point.
His 1.41 career ERA, 124 saves, 353 K's in 204 innings are too large of a sample size to dismiss as a guy the league hasn't "figured out.". Mariano Rivera is without a doubt the greates closer of all time, but Kimbrel's performance from 2011-13 is one that no reliever in MLB history can match.
Every MLB team wants a great closer, that reassurance that if it's close late, there is no worry. The Atlanta Braves don't just have a great closer - they have an all-timer at the closer position...and he's only 25 years old.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
2013 Preseason College Football Poll
The coaches poll comes out today at noon, appropriate because it's August today and college football is right around the corner. Check back to some July posts on here for top returning players, sleeper Hesiman picks, and national title contenders.
As for today, I'll be listing who I think are the top 25 teams heading into the season. This is based on how good I think the are, not what I think the poll will look like today or at the end of the season.
1). Alabama
2). Stanford
3). Georgia
4). Oklahoma St
5). Ohio State
6). Florida
7). Clemson
8). LSU
9). Texas
10) Oregon
11) Nebraska
12) South Carolina
13) Florida St
14). Louisville
15) Notre Dame
16) Texas A&M
17). Virginia Tech
18). Michigan
19). Oklahoma
20) TCU
21). Oregon State
22). Miami
23). Vanderbilt
24) UCLA
25). Northwestern
This will not likely be the first or final poll as many teams will rank different from my prediction. Certain teams like Ohio State and Florida State play cupcake schedules while teams like LSU have quite a gauntlet.
It's also quite intriguing that week 1 features UGA-Clemson, TCU-LSU, and Virginia Tech-Alabama. These matchups will give us an instant snapshot at what some of these teams will look like in 2013.
I also think this is the year the SEC gets left out of the BCS title game. The SEC finished with 6 of the top 14 teams in the final AP Poll last year, and all these teams will be strong again. Throw in what should be much improved Auburn and Mississippi teams and it's unlikely any SEC team finished unbeaten.
One loss SEC teams (and 2) have made it before, but there's too many other talented teams in 2013 that only have a game or 2 to challenge them. I could easily see unbeaten teams in the ACC, Big 10, and PAC-12 title games. Also, Oklahoma State has a great shot at getting to at least mid-November without a loss.
If it happens, it will certainly be a good thing for college football that the new plus 1 system goes into place next season because there will be a lot of unhappy campers in this situation.
BCS Predictions
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma St vs Florida
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs Michigan
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs Texas
Orange Bowl - Louisville vs Florida St
BCS title game - Ohio State vs Stanford
As for today, I'll be listing who I think are the top 25 teams heading into the season. This is based on how good I think the are, not what I think the poll will look like today or at the end of the season.
1). Alabama
2). Stanford
3). Georgia
4). Oklahoma St
5). Ohio State
6). Florida
7). Clemson
8). LSU
9). Texas
10) Oregon
11) Nebraska
12) South Carolina
13) Florida St
14). Louisville
15) Notre Dame
16) Texas A&M
17). Virginia Tech
18). Michigan
19). Oklahoma
20) TCU
21). Oregon State
22). Miami
23). Vanderbilt
24) UCLA
25). Northwestern
This will not likely be the first or final poll as many teams will rank different from my prediction. Certain teams like Ohio State and Florida State play cupcake schedules while teams like LSU have quite a gauntlet.
It's also quite intriguing that week 1 features UGA-Clemson, TCU-LSU, and Virginia Tech-Alabama. These matchups will give us an instant snapshot at what some of these teams will look like in 2013.
I also think this is the year the SEC gets left out of the BCS title game. The SEC finished with 6 of the top 14 teams in the final AP Poll last year, and all these teams will be strong again. Throw in what should be much improved Auburn and Mississippi teams and it's unlikely any SEC team finished unbeaten.
One loss SEC teams (and 2) have made it before, but there's too many other talented teams in 2013 that only have a game or 2 to challenge them. I could easily see unbeaten teams in the ACC, Big 10, and PAC-12 title games. Also, Oklahoma State has a great shot at getting to at least mid-November without a loss.
If it happens, it will certainly be a good thing for college football that the new plus 1 system goes into place next season because there will be a lot of unhappy campers in this situation.
BCS Predictions
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma St vs Florida
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs Michigan
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs Texas
Orange Bowl - Louisville vs Florida St
BCS title game - Ohio State vs Stanford
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Analysis and breakdown of Orioles acquiring Bud Norris
For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Orioles are in the playoff hunt. In 2013, the team has relied on an offense that is 4th in the major leagues in runs scored. The pitching, however, has struggled and currently has a 4.30 team ERA - 26th in all of baseball.
So, upgrading the starting rotation was definitely a trade deadline target. Although Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez have been good, Jason Hammel has struggled, thus increasing the need for a veteran starter. The 28 year old Norris is 6-9 with a 3.93 ERA for Houston this year, while being their most successful starter.
Houston, after dealing outfielder Justin Maxwell just minutes earlier, acquire AAA outfielder LJ Hoes from Baltimore. The 24 year old is hitting .304/.406/.403 for the Norfolk Tides and has spent brief stints in Baltimore the last 2 seasons. He is most likely a 4th outfielder in the big leagues.
Baltimore gives up a solid prospect in Hoes, their compensatory pick, and young lefty Josh Hader, but if they are going to make a run at Tampa and Boston, they needed more quality starting pitching to match up with what those two teams are running out there.
Expect Hoes to fill the spot of Justin Maxwell in Houston as the Astros deal away another one of their regulars, this time their staff ace. Hader is only 19, and the 6'3 lefty is having a good season at Delmarva with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts but is several years away from the big leagues at best.
On pace for 54 wins coming into today, the 'Stros may not make 50 now. Besides the Baltimore rotation, the big winner here may be Texas, who still has 10 games remaining against what is now essentially a AAA Houston team.
So, upgrading the starting rotation was definitely a trade deadline target. Although Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez have been good, Jason Hammel has struggled, thus increasing the need for a veteran starter. The 28 year old Norris is 6-9 with a 3.93 ERA for Houston this year, while being their most successful starter.
Houston, after dealing outfielder Justin Maxwell just minutes earlier, acquire AAA outfielder LJ Hoes from Baltimore. The 24 year old is hitting .304/.406/.403 for the Norfolk Tides and has spent brief stints in Baltimore the last 2 seasons. He is most likely a 4th outfielder in the big leagues.
Baltimore gives up a solid prospect in Hoes, their compensatory pick, and young lefty Josh Hader, but if they are going to make a run at Tampa and Boston, they needed more quality starting pitching to match up with what those two teams are running out there.
Expect Hoes to fill the spot of Justin Maxwell in Houston as the Astros deal away another one of their regulars, this time their staff ace. Hader is only 19, and the 6'3 lefty is having a good season at Delmarva with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts but is several years away from the big leagues at best.
On pace for 54 wins coming into today, the 'Stros may not make 50 now. Besides the Baltimore rotation, the big winner here may be Texas, who still has 10 games remaining against what is now essentially a AAA Houston team.
Ian Kennedy to Padres trade breakdown and analysis
Two years ago it was hard to imagine Arizona giving up Ian Kennedy, who was enjoying a 21-4 season for the playoff bound D-Backs. At age 26 and under team control, he was an asset all MLB teams covet.
Fast forward to 2013, and Arizona is 7-14 in Kennedy's 21 starts and he has only 3 wins all year. Patrick Corbin is now the ace of the staff and Wade Miley is having a strong season as well. at 54-52 and 3.5 games behind LA, the D-Backs are at a point now where trading Kennedy makes sense.
With Corbin and Miley heading the rotation and injured starters Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill due to return to action very soon, Kennedy became expendable. He still has some value at age 28 and an affordable salary for a club needing a starter, but the D-Backs really needed a lefty reliever and are comfortable with young starters Tyler Skaggs and Randall Delgado filling the #5 starter role.
With lefty reliever Matt Reynolds injured since June and fellow lefty Tony Sipp giving up homers in two of his last 3 outings, getting a premier lefty like Joe Thatcher will help Arizona down the stretch. Trying to gun down the red hot Dodgers will take a strong lefty to get Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier out. Thatcher has a 2.10 ERA in 50 games this year, so the D-Backs get a lefty reliever to help out righties Brad Ziegler, Will Harris, Heath Bell, Josh Collmenter, and JJ Putz.
San Diego gets Kennedy to help out a rotation that has been underwhelming all year. Eric Stults has been a pleasant surprise and Andrew Cashner is a promising youg starter, but Edison Volquez and Jason Marquis have been inconsistent. Kennedy will give the Pads some needed depth and experience in their rotation.
The D-Backs are also getting a compensatory draft pick and San Diego's AA closer in Matt Stites. Stites has 14 saves and a 2.08 ERA for the San Antonio Missions and could be the D-Backs closer of the future.
Arizona has 2 quality starters coming back soon and 2 young capable starters to fill the rotations back -end, so dealing the struggling Kennedy made sense while he still has value. Plus, getting a premier lefty reliever was a necessity for Arizona as they make a run at the division this fall. The addition of Stites and the draft pick are a plus too.
San Diego sees a young starter just 2 years removed from finishing 4th in Cy Young voting as a future front line starter as Kennedy is still just 28. The Pads also traded from a strength as they have one of the leagues best bullpens and could afford to part with the 31 year old Thatcher.
Will it be enough for Arizona to make a legit run at LA? Stay tuned...
Fast forward to 2013, and Arizona is 7-14 in Kennedy's 21 starts and he has only 3 wins all year. Patrick Corbin is now the ace of the staff and Wade Miley is having a strong season as well. at 54-52 and 3.5 games behind LA, the D-Backs are at a point now where trading Kennedy makes sense.
With Corbin and Miley heading the rotation and injured starters Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill due to return to action very soon, Kennedy became expendable. He still has some value at age 28 and an affordable salary for a club needing a starter, but the D-Backs really needed a lefty reliever and are comfortable with young starters Tyler Skaggs and Randall Delgado filling the #5 starter role.
With lefty reliever Matt Reynolds injured since June and fellow lefty Tony Sipp giving up homers in two of his last 3 outings, getting a premier lefty like Joe Thatcher will help Arizona down the stretch. Trying to gun down the red hot Dodgers will take a strong lefty to get Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier out. Thatcher has a 2.10 ERA in 50 games this year, so the D-Backs get a lefty reliever to help out righties Brad Ziegler, Will Harris, Heath Bell, Josh Collmenter, and JJ Putz.
San Diego gets Kennedy to help out a rotation that has been underwhelming all year. Eric Stults has been a pleasant surprise and Andrew Cashner is a promising youg starter, but Edison Volquez and Jason Marquis have been inconsistent. Kennedy will give the Pads some needed depth and experience in their rotation.
The D-Backs are also getting a compensatory draft pick and San Diego's AA closer in Matt Stites. Stites has 14 saves and a 2.08 ERA for the San Antonio Missions and could be the D-Backs closer of the future.
Arizona has 2 quality starters coming back soon and 2 young capable starters to fill the rotations back -end, so dealing the struggling Kennedy made sense while he still has value. Plus, getting a premier lefty reliever was a necessity for Arizona as they make a run at the division this fall. The addition of Stites and the draft pick are a plus too.
San Diego sees a young starter just 2 years removed from finishing 4th in Cy Young voting as a future front line starter as Kennedy is still just 28. The Pads also traded from a strength as they have one of the leagues best bullpens and could afford to part with the 31 year old Thatcher.
Will it be enough for Arizona to make a legit run at LA? Stay tuned...
Jake Peavy to Boston trade breakdown
East coast fans that went to bed early woke up this morning with the news that Jake Peavy was dealt to the Red Sox. A 3-team deal, each had different motives in the trade and all 3 should be pleased with the results. Although, as chronicled here, trade deadline deals are certainly buyer beware.
The Red Sox acquired Peavy, who has a $15 million dollar player option next season, along with reliever Brayan Villarral from Detroit. Peavy will help fill the Clay Buchholz void as the Red Sox deemed Peavy healthy and worth the investment. The 32 year old Peavy is still effective, but no where near his 2007 Cy Young form. He made the All Star team last year, but has limped to a 4.28 ERA in 2013 and is #3 or #4 starter at this point, although his experience is valuable in the Boston rotation.
Villarreal had a very good 2012 season as well, posting a 2.63 ERA in 50 games, but has been sidelined with an injury for most of 2013. His loss was part of the overall issues with the Tigers bullpen, but when he returns can be a key guy in the Boston pen.
Detroit's need to get in this trade was to get shortstop Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox. It appears regular shortstop Jhonny Peralta will receive a heavy suspension for his role in the Biogenesis scandal and Iglesias will help fill that role. A .330 hitter this year in 215 at bats, Iglesias got off to a tremendous start for Boston playing a utility role. He's slumped back down a bit since, but as a career .257 minor league hitter, he's an asset more for his defense. The slick fielder was expendable because of the organizational depth at shortstop that Boston possesses. Xander Bogaerts is one of the games top prospects at short, and Will Middlebrooks will come back up to fill the Iglesias role.
The White Sox are in rebuilding mode and moved Peavy and Villareal to acquire some young talent. Their prize is a big right handed outfield bat in Avisail Garcia. Garcia hit .380/.460/.561 in 39 minor league games this season before Detroit called him up. Baseball America listed Garcia as the Tigers best minor league power hitter headed into 2013. At 6'4, 240 pounds, Garcia is a corner outfielder who has 2 home runs for Detroit in 2013 playing at age 22.
The White Sox also added 2 young pitchers from Boston in the deal. Francelis Montas is a 20 year old righty with 96 strikeouts in 85 innings in A ball. He features an upper 90's fastball and with improved command could turn into a big time prospect. JB Wendelken, out of South Effingham High and Middle Georgia College, is a reliever with a 2.77 ERA in 27 games this year in A ball.
The final piece Chicago received was Cleulius Rondon, an infield prospect hitting .276 in short season A ball.
Overall, this trade will be judged by Red Sox fans on how Peavy performs this year and next, but his first 7-8 starts will go a long way in determining how this trade panned out in the short term for Boston.
Detroit will love Iglesias's glove, just don't expect a .330 hitter or someone that will hit anywhere close to Peralta's level. But giving up Garcia was a fair price for the talent they are receiving.
As for Chicago, they project Garcia as a big time power hitting outfielder that will be a cornerstone of their current rebuilding situation. Montas could also turn out to be a big time contributor as well.
No way to determine the winner at this point, but the marquee name in Peavy was acquired by dealing a major league level player from a position of strength and 3 lower-level prospects. Pretty good deal for Boston considering Peavy's contract and injury situation as there are not a lot of starting pitchers available this trade deadline. No way they would give up a guy like Bogaerts for Peavy, so getting a veteran of his caliber for the pennant race seems like a necessary move.
The Red Sox acquired Peavy, who has a $15 million dollar player option next season, along with reliever Brayan Villarral from Detroit. Peavy will help fill the Clay Buchholz void as the Red Sox deemed Peavy healthy and worth the investment. The 32 year old Peavy is still effective, but no where near his 2007 Cy Young form. He made the All Star team last year, but has limped to a 4.28 ERA in 2013 and is #3 or #4 starter at this point, although his experience is valuable in the Boston rotation.
Villarreal had a very good 2012 season as well, posting a 2.63 ERA in 50 games, but has been sidelined with an injury for most of 2013. His loss was part of the overall issues with the Tigers bullpen, but when he returns can be a key guy in the Boston pen.
Detroit's need to get in this trade was to get shortstop Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox. It appears regular shortstop Jhonny Peralta will receive a heavy suspension for his role in the Biogenesis scandal and Iglesias will help fill that role. A .330 hitter this year in 215 at bats, Iglesias got off to a tremendous start for Boston playing a utility role. He's slumped back down a bit since, but as a career .257 minor league hitter, he's an asset more for his defense. The slick fielder was expendable because of the organizational depth at shortstop that Boston possesses. Xander Bogaerts is one of the games top prospects at short, and Will Middlebrooks will come back up to fill the Iglesias role.
The White Sox are in rebuilding mode and moved Peavy and Villareal to acquire some young talent. Their prize is a big right handed outfield bat in Avisail Garcia. Garcia hit .380/.460/.561 in 39 minor league games this season before Detroit called him up. Baseball America listed Garcia as the Tigers best minor league power hitter headed into 2013. At 6'4, 240 pounds, Garcia is a corner outfielder who has 2 home runs for Detroit in 2013 playing at age 22.
The White Sox also added 2 young pitchers from Boston in the deal. Francelis Montas is a 20 year old righty with 96 strikeouts in 85 innings in A ball. He features an upper 90's fastball and with improved command could turn into a big time prospect. JB Wendelken, out of South Effingham High and Middle Georgia College, is a reliever with a 2.77 ERA in 27 games this year in A ball.
The final piece Chicago received was Cleulius Rondon, an infield prospect hitting .276 in short season A ball.
Overall, this trade will be judged by Red Sox fans on how Peavy performs this year and next, but his first 7-8 starts will go a long way in determining how this trade panned out in the short term for Boston.
Detroit will love Iglesias's glove, just don't expect a .330 hitter or someone that will hit anywhere close to Peralta's level. But giving up Garcia was a fair price for the talent they are receiving.
As for Chicago, they project Garcia as a big time power hitting outfielder that will be a cornerstone of their current rebuilding situation. Montas could also turn out to be a big time contributor as well.
No way to determine the winner at this point, but the marquee name in Peavy was acquired by dealing a major league level player from a position of strength and 3 lower-level prospects. Pretty good deal for Boston considering Peavy's contract and injury situation as there are not a lot of starting pitchers available this trade deadline. No way they would give up a guy like Bogaerts for Peavy, so getting a veteran of his caliber for the pennant race seems like a necessary move.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Can Seahawks overcome loss of Harvin?
Bad news out of Seattle today as Percy Harvin's hip requires surgery and he will be out for a huge chunk of the 2013 season. So how big of a deal is this for the Seahawks? Well, with one of the leagues top defenses returning most of its core, the main offseason concern was to improve the offense. With QB and RB set, an upgrade at WR was an obvious target.
Acquiring Harvin cost a lot, with a 6 year 67 million dollar contract and a 1st round pick paid out by Seattle. The Seahawks made the playoffs last year as a wild card team, but hopes they will return to the postseason took a big hit today.
Sidney Rice and Golden Tate had around 50 catches last year, but there is still no game breaker at receiver. Marshawn Lynch will again be the feature back, but he has 600 carries the last 2 years. Russell Wilson is terrific, but how will he perform in his 2nd year?
Cliff Avril will bolster the pass rush and Antoine Winfield was a solid pick up for the secondary, but to dismiss the loss of Harvin is a mistake. There are no guarantees in the NFL and Seattle knew they needed more firepower at receiver and a replacement for Leon Washington at returner. Harvin was expected to excel at both those roles.
The Seahawks may stay in contention until Harvin returns, they may even be a playoff team without him. But the thinking that the defense will definitely be top 5 again and the offense will move the ball consistently with coordinators having tape on Wilson now is very optimistic.
This team knew they needed Percy Harvin. You could tell by the contract he signed and the premium pick Minnesota received. I can't see Seattle brushing off this injury and steamrolling through their schedule as fans in the pacific northwest are still predicting.
The NFL gives teams two main ways to improve their teams in the offseason...the draft and free agency. Losing an acquisition like this that costs a lot of cap space and a first round pick is not something you brush off - it's the type of acquisition that leaves you out of the postseason.
Acquiring Harvin cost a lot, with a 6 year 67 million dollar contract and a 1st round pick paid out by Seattle. The Seahawks made the playoffs last year as a wild card team, but hopes they will return to the postseason took a big hit today.
Sidney Rice and Golden Tate had around 50 catches last year, but there is still no game breaker at receiver. Marshawn Lynch will again be the feature back, but he has 600 carries the last 2 years. Russell Wilson is terrific, but how will he perform in his 2nd year?
Cliff Avril will bolster the pass rush and Antoine Winfield was a solid pick up for the secondary, but to dismiss the loss of Harvin is a mistake. There are no guarantees in the NFL and Seattle knew they needed more firepower at receiver and a replacement for Leon Washington at returner. Harvin was expected to excel at both those roles.
The Seahawks may stay in contention until Harvin returns, they may even be a playoff team without him. But the thinking that the defense will definitely be top 5 again and the offense will move the ball consistently with coordinators having tape on Wilson now is very optimistic.
This team knew they needed Percy Harvin. You could tell by the contract he signed and the premium pick Minnesota received. I can't see Seattle brushing off this injury and steamrolling through their schedule as fans in the pacific northwest are still predicting.
The NFL gives teams two main ways to improve their teams in the offseason...the draft and free agency. Losing an acquisition like this that costs a lot of cap space and a first round pick is not something you brush off - it's the type of acquisition that leaves you out of the postseason.
Tuesday quick hits
Trade deadline will be central here tomorrow, check in for analysis of all the moves and see who is set up for a strong run this fall.
But for today's quick hits...
1). I don't think Andre Johnson is getting his due as an all time elite receiver. Maybe because he's not the best "Johnson" WR of his era and doesn't play for NY/Dallas/NE. Anyway, he has 3 of the top 25 receiving yards seasons in history, more than the other Johnson, Rice, or anyone else. Pretty good. Another year like last, and he's in the top 15 all time for yards. If he was a Cowboy, we would hear about him constantly, too bad he plays for the wrong Texas team. His QB suffers from this too, as Schaub is almost identical to Romo in terms of stats.
2). Who I think are the top 5 best teams coming into the 2013 college football season... 5). Ohio State. 4). Oklahoma State 3). Georgia 2). Stanford. 1) Alabama
3). Story came out today that Adrian Peterson is predicting he will break Emmitt Smith's rushing record in 2017. I haven't read the article, but I'll make my own prediction based on what I know about RBs in the NFL. He's at 8,849 at age 27 and is about 9,500 shy of Emmitt. So...quick math, AP is expecting that in the next 5 years he will average right around 2,000 yards. Peterson is the leagues best back right now, but is on the wrong side of his prime and has only 1 season so far above 1,760 yards. Further, last year was his 1st time starting 16 games. I'll say that at the end of the 2017 season, AP will have 16,150 yards - ahead of Barry, but not quite up to Payton and Emmitt.
4). Top 5 Fantasy QBs for 2013 - 1). Rodgers 2). Brees 3). Ryan. 4). Newton 5). Griffin
5). A big congrats to Starr's Mill High grad and Royals prospect on his promotion to AAA on Monday. He responded in his 1st game as an Omaha Storm Chaser with a home run.
Looks like their is Bud Norris news, time to get set up for the trade deadline!
But for today's quick hits...
1). I don't think Andre Johnson is getting his due as an all time elite receiver. Maybe because he's not the best "Johnson" WR of his era and doesn't play for NY/Dallas/NE. Anyway, he has 3 of the top 25 receiving yards seasons in history, more than the other Johnson, Rice, or anyone else. Pretty good. Another year like last, and he's in the top 15 all time for yards. If he was a Cowboy, we would hear about him constantly, too bad he plays for the wrong Texas team. His QB suffers from this too, as Schaub is almost identical to Romo in terms of stats.
2). Who I think are the top 5 best teams coming into the 2013 college football season... 5). Ohio State. 4). Oklahoma State 3). Georgia 2). Stanford. 1) Alabama
3). Story came out today that Adrian Peterson is predicting he will break Emmitt Smith's rushing record in 2017. I haven't read the article, but I'll make my own prediction based on what I know about RBs in the NFL. He's at 8,849 at age 27 and is about 9,500 shy of Emmitt. So...quick math, AP is expecting that in the next 5 years he will average right around 2,000 yards. Peterson is the leagues best back right now, but is on the wrong side of his prime and has only 1 season so far above 1,760 yards. Further, last year was his 1st time starting 16 games. I'll say that at the end of the 2017 season, AP will have 16,150 yards - ahead of Barry, but not quite up to Payton and Emmitt.
4). Top 5 Fantasy QBs for 2013 - 1). Rodgers 2). Brees 3). Ryan. 4). Newton 5). Griffin
5). A big congrats to Starr's Mill High grad and Royals prospect on his promotion to AAA on Monday. He responded in his 1st game as an Omaha Storm Chaser with a home run.
Looks like their is Bud Norris news, time to get set up for the trade deadline!
Monday, July 29, 2013
Analysis of Braves trade for Scott Downs
Frank Wren and the Braves did not try to hide the fact that they wanted a left handed reliever before trade deadline. So, some 50 hours before the deadline, the Braves have the top available left handed reliever on their roster. You could see a deal happening soon, especially after Jose Veras was dealt to Detroit this morning and a Jesse Crain deal seems imminent as well.
So what does Atlanta get in Downs? He became a dominant lefty reliever in Toronto in 2007 after not being able to maintain a spot in the Jays rotation. He struggled in his last outing, taking the loss after giving up 2 runs to Oakland, but hadn't given up a run since May 1st before that. Now, Downs isn't a 7th/8th inning guy, but the Braves have those roles filled. He's a lefty specialist, rarely facing more than a batter or two. This way, Luis Avilan can maintain his role as the 7th inning guy, while Downs can be available to get out a lefty at any point in the 6th/7th/8th inning.
And with so many of the potential playoff teams featuring solid lefties, Downs can be used late in games to face these guys. The most notable team is Cincinnati, as the trio of Choo/Bruce/Votto has been tough on the Braves this season. The Dodgers feature Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier, the Cards have Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay, and the Pirates most dangerous hitter is lefty Pedro Alvarez.
What did Atlanta have to give up for a guy that will likely not top 25 innings pitched this regular season as a Brave? Cory Rasmus, a supplemental 1st round pick from 2006 out of Russell County High School in Alabama. He made his MLB debut this year for the Braves and has been dominant in Gwinnett as a reliever. The 25 year old is just about ready to be a big league reliever and can really run it up with his mid-90's fastball.
A good prospect, but that's necessary when acquiring a player the caliber of Scott Downs. Frank Wren was able to trade from a strength and improve that same strength at the same time.
This was a move that improved the Braves in the best way as no available starting pitcher was a good fit when it came to contract status. I see this team heading into August with excellent starting pitching, beginning with Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. Brandon Beachy returns tonight and Kris Medlen was sharp in his last outing.
Now, the bullpen is even better than before, when they were the best in the majors. And acquiring a reliever from the Angels worked last time with Jordan Walden, why not pluck another from them?
So what does Atlanta get in Downs? He became a dominant lefty reliever in Toronto in 2007 after not being able to maintain a spot in the Jays rotation. He struggled in his last outing, taking the loss after giving up 2 runs to Oakland, but hadn't given up a run since May 1st before that. Now, Downs isn't a 7th/8th inning guy, but the Braves have those roles filled. He's a lefty specialist, rarely facing more than a batter or two. This way, Luis Avilan can maintain his role as the 7th inning guy, while Downs can be available to get out a lefty at any point in the 6th/7th/8th inning.
And with so many of the potential playoff teams featuring solid lefties, Downs can be used late in games to face these guys. The most notable team is Cincinnati, as the trio of Choo/Bruce/Votto has been tough on the Braves this season. The Dodgers feature Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier, the Cards have Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay, and the Pirates most dangerous hitter is lefty Pedro Alvarez.
What did Atlanta have to give up for a guy that will likely not top 25 innings pitched this regular season as a Brave? Cory Rasmus, a supplemental 1st round pick from 2006 out of Russell County High School in Alabama. He made his MLB debut this year for the Braves and has been dominant in Gwinnett as a reliever. The 25 year old is just about ready to be a big league reliever and can really run it up with his mid-90's fastball.
A good prospect, but that's necessary when acquiring a player the caliber of Scott Downs. Frank Wren was able to trade from a strength and improve that same strength at the same time.
This was a move that improved the Braves in the best way as no available starting pitcher was a good fit when it came to contract status. I see this team heading into August with excellent starting pitching, beginning with Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. Brandon Beachy returns tonight and Kris Medlen was sharp in his last outing.
Now, the bullpen is even better than before, when they were the best in the majors. And acquiring a reliever from the Angels worked last time with Jordan Walden, why not pluck another from them?
Will the Cubs ever win again?
Here we go again. The Cubs dealt Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano last week, with closer Kevin Gregg probably next on the list to be shipped off this month. Once again the Cubbies are sellers in July and out of the playoff race. When, if ever, will we see the Cubs get to the playoffs and be a factor there? After missing the playoffs from 1945-1984, the Cubs have made it back just 6 times in the last 30 years. Granted, it is a lot easier in the Wildcard era to make the postseason, but only once in those 6 times did they win a series and never made a World Series (que Bartman joke).
But here they are again in late July, 7 games under .500 and not much hope for the immediate future. The 2013 Cubs are in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs scored, runs allowed, and run differential, but don't seem to have any type of aura around them to make you think they are close to becoming a contender. They have a lineup featuring a lot of utility players and 4th outfielders that doesn't scare many MLB pitchers. Anthony Rizzo is a good young player and Starlin Castro will be there for a while, but the lineup certainly needs more. The rotation has been pretty solid, with Jeff Samardzija running up high K totals and Travis Wood putting up great start after great start. But the rest of the staff has struggled, and it won't get any better now with Garza gone.
There have been some good Cubs teams over the years, most notably 1984 and 2003. The Kerry Wood/Mark Prior duo seemed ready to take the Cubbies to the next level, but both flamed out shortly after their run in 2003.
So what has been the problem? Ownership has given the team flexibility to spend, with a payroll in MLB's to half most seasons, including over 100 million in 2013. There have been free agent misses, most notably Alfonso Soriano, Todd Hundley, and Milton Bradley. They let Greg Maddux walk in free agency in 1993, and released Jamie Moyer 25 years before he stopped becoming an effective lefty starter, and let Luis Gonzalez go before he led Arizona to a World Series title.
But where the Cubs have missed the most is the MLB Draft. The draft is set up to help make the weaker teams stronger by giving them the chance to draft the top amateur players. And while the draft is certainly not an exact science in baseball, you have to hit on more first round picks than the Cubs have recently.
But what is interesting is that when you look at the Cubs 1st round picks over the years, you see a lot of names of players that turned out to be really good. Just not for the Cubs. Andrew Cashner (2008) is a very good starter for San Diego, Jon Garland has 136 wins in 13 seasons but 0 for the Cubs, and Josh Donaldson is starring for the 1st place A's this year.
While several other 1st rounders never made it to Wrigley, here is a list of the Cubs worst 1st round picks in the last 15 years.
5) Ben Christensen, 26th overall in 1999 - Known more for partially blinding an Evansville player while in college, Christensen was a character risk from the beginning. Then, after 6 highly ineffective minor league seasons, he was out of pro ball.
4). Lou Montanez, 3rd overall in 2000 - Not that the 2000 draft was anything spectacular, but Montanez has 68 career hits in the bigs, most notably a HR in his 1st at bat. Still hanging on, Montanez was signed last month by the Angels as he attempts to get back to the major leagues.
3). Hayden Simpson, 16th overall in 2010 - Simpson has had trouble getting pro hitters out ever since he signed with Chicago. He has a 15.95 ERA in 2013 for an Independent league team after being released by the Cubs not even 3 years after being picked in the 1st half of the 1st round out of Southern Arkansas University. Making things worse, other college pitchers taken in top half of the 1st in 2010 like Chris Sale and Matt Harvey are now MLB All Stars.
2). Matt Pawalek, 20th overall in 2005 - If there was a year not to whiff on your 1st rounder, it was 2005, where 37 of the 48 picks made the big leagues. But the Cubs missed badly on Pawalek, a 6'3 lefty who was out of baseball by 2010 and his career included just 18 appearances above low A ball. Looking for a starting pitcher with this pick, the Cubs could have taken Matt Garza, who was taken a few spots later by Minnesota.
1). Ryan Harvey, 6th overall in 2003 - Another good draft with 27 of the 37 1st rounders reaching the majors, the 6th overall pick played just 16 games above A ball with the Cubs. An outfielder with power, Harvey hit some home runs, but never hit for average and struck out at alarming rates. The next 2 picks in the draft were Nick Markakis and Paul Maholm, who have turned into longtime major
league starters.
Now don't get me wrong here, every team misses on draft picks. This is just a look at one team that has struggled over the years and an overview of what maybe led to some of their misfortunes.
On the bright side, it looks like the recent Cubs 1st rounders may produce some future stars. I love their most recent pick in Kris Bryant who was the best hitter in the 2013 draft. First rounder from 2012 Albert Almora is having a great year at Kane County and Javy Baez, the 9th pick in 2011 may be the clubs top prospect. Plus, there is still hope 2007 top pick Josh Vitters could still make an impact.
So even with several misses, the latest group of Cub prospects may be the group that gets them headed back to the playoffs. And maybe in a few years we can enjoy a trade deadline period where the beloved Cubbies are using a deep and talented farm system to be the ones acquiring a veteran star for a long awaited playoff run.
But here they are again in late July, 7 games under .500 and not much hope for the immediate future. The 2013 Cubs are in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs scored, runs allowed, and run differential, but don't seem to have any type of aura around them to make you think they are close to becoming a contender. They have a lineup featuring a lot of utility players and 4th outfielders that doesn't scare many MLB pitchers. Anthony Rizzo is a good young player and Starlin Castro will be there for a while, but the lineup certainly needs more. The rotation has been pretty solid, with Jeff Samardzija running up high K totals and Travis Wood putting up great start after great start. But the rest of the staff has struggled, and it won't get any better now with Garza gone.
There have been some good Cubs teams over the years, most notably 1984 and 2003. The Kerry Wood/Mark Prior duo seemed ready to take the Cubbies to the next level, but both flamed out shortly after their run in 2003.
So what has been the problem? Ownership has given the team flexibility to spend, with a payroll in MLB's to half most seasons, including over 100 million in 2013. There have been free agent misses, most notably Alfonso Soriano, Todd Hundley, and Milton Bradley. They let Greg Maddux walk in free agency in 1993, and released Jamie Moyer 25 years before he stopped becoming an effective lefty starter, and let Luis Gonzalez go before he led Arizona to a World Series title.
But where the Cubs have missed the most is the MLB Draft. The draft is set up to help make the weaker teams stronger by giving them the chance to draft the top amateur players. And while the draft is certainly not an exact science in baseball, you have to hit on more first round picks than the Cubs have recently.
But what is interesting is that when you look at the Cubs 1st round picks over the years, you see a lot of names of players that turned out to be really good. Just not for the Cubs. Andrew Cashner (2008) is a very good starter for San Diego, Jon Garland has 136 wins in 13 seasons but 0 for the Cubs, and Josh Donaldson is starring for the 1st place A's this year.
While several other 1st rounders never made it to Wrigley, here is a list of the Cubs worst 1st round picks in the last 15 years.
5) Ben Christensen, 26th overall in 1999 - Known more for partially blinding an Evansville player while in college, Christensen was a character risk from the beginning. Then, after 6 highly ineffective minor league seasons, he was out of pro ball.
4). Lou Montanez, 3rd overall in 2000 - Not that the 2000 draft was anything spectacular, but Montanez has 68 career hits in the bigs, most notably a HR in his 1st at bat. Still hanging on, Montanez was signed last month by the Angels as he attempts to get back to the major leagues.
3). Hayden Simpson, 16th overall in 2010 - Simpson has had trouble getting pro hitters out ever since he signed with Chicago. He has a 15.95 ERA in 2013 for an Independent league team after being released by the Cubs not even 3 years after being picked in the 1st half of the 1st round out of Southern Arkansas University. Making things worse, other college pitchers taken in top half of the 1st in 2010 like Chris Sale and Matt Harvey are now MLB All Stars.
2). Matt Pawalek, 20th overall in 2005 - If there was a year not to whiff on your 1st rounder, it was 2005, where 37 of the 48 picks made the big leagues. But the Cubs missed badly on Pawalek, a 6'3 lefty who was out of baseball by 2010 and his career included just 18 appearances above low A ball. Looking for a starting pitcher with this pick, the Cubs could have taken Matt Garza, who was taken a few spots later by Minnesota.
1). Ryan Harvey, 6th overall in 2003 - Another good draft with 27 of the 37 1st rounders reaching the majors, the 6th overall pick played just 16 games above A ball with the Cubs. An outfielder with power, Harvey hit some home runs, but never hit for average and struck out at alarming rates. The next 2 picks in the draft were Nick Markakis and Paul Maholm, who have turned into longtime major
league starters.
Now don't get me wrong here, every team misses on draft picks. This is just a look at one team that has struggled over the years and an overview of what maybe led to some of their misfortunes.
On the bright side, it looks like the recent Cubs 1st rounders may produce some future stars. I love their most recent pick in Kris Bryant who was the best hitter in the 2013 draft. First rounder from 2012 Albert Almora is having a great year at Kane County and Javy Baez, the 9th pick in 2011 may be the clubs top prospect. Plus, there is still hope 2007 top pick Josh Vitters could still make an impact.
So even with several misses, the latest group of Cub prospects may be the group that gets them headed back to the playoffs. And maybe in a few years we can enjoy a trade deadline period where the beloved Cubbies are using a deep and talented farm system to be the ones acquiring a veteran star for a long awaited playoff run.
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