Some Draft talk...

Those that read this blog last summer know how much I enjoy the MLB Draft. While over half of the 1st round picks that are going to be made this June will never sniff the Big Leagues, the strategies and local flavor always get me excited about this event.

This year is no different. Actually, there is one big difference in the draft order. The Braves hold the 7th pick this year after a horrendous 72-90 season last year. No more “hold your breath and pray Jason Hayword drops to us” moments. The Braves can take just about anyone they want that is not named Steven Strausburg. Plus, there is a local high school product that would make perfect sense with this 7th pick, Donovan Tate.

Donovan is the son of Lars Tate, former UGA and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back. He is an elite football player, signing a scholarship to play both football and baseball at UNC-Chapel Hill. But he will never become a Tar Heel. His baseball gifts remind scouts of B.J. Upton, a former #2 overall pick. He is an athletic outfielder with a good arm and powerful stick - probably too good of a prospect for Atlanta to pass on.

The draft also has a local flavor with UGA’s Rich Poythress a possible top 15 pick. Poythress, out of Augusta , has been among the top 1-2 in the SEC this season in AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, OBP, SLG, and Walks. He compares favorably to last seasons first basemen that went in the top 10, Yonder Alonso and Justin Smoak. Also at the collegiate level, Kyle Heckathorn (6’6 RHP from Kennesaw St ) is a probably 1st round pick.

At the high school level, talents Luke Bailey and Zach Wheeler are likely to join Tate as 1st round picks. Bailey, out of Troup High in Lagrange, has a 1.78 pop time behind the plate and hits for ton of power (Auburn signee). Wheeler, from East Paulding, is a right-handed pitcher who throws 93-94 with a devastating slider.

Lets get it cranking again!

Its been a while, so lets start with some musings...

Loved the draft for the Falcons, got a DT starter in the 1st and a freak athlete safety in the 2nd. Looks like Owens and Sidbury will be at least backups as rookies. The Draft is the key to the NFL, because if you don't draft backups and special teams guys along with your 1st day picks, you end up killing your salary cap signing veterans to fill those roles...

Glad to see Jeff Francoeur get off to a good start...even his outs look good some of the time. Everything I read about Jason Heyward says he will be a complete stud. Off to an OK start this year in Myrtle Beach - .277-3-10 through Sunday. He went 1-4 in the game yesterday, a loss to Salem, where the Myrtle Beach Braves were beaten by Jose Capellan (of Dan Kolb fame). Have all of the Braves so-called "Aces of the future" since Smoltz/Avery/Glavine came along ever turned into All-Stars? Jason Schmidt maybe? There have been way too many Bruce Chen/Jose Capellan/Anthony Lerew's. Trade Tommy Hanson now!

Hawks on to Round 2 tomorrow night. Unless they sweep the 2 at home, this looks like a 5 game series at best. I just don't see LeBron letting up in any game as he seems to be on a mission this year. Big Z also gives us all sorts of problems inside that Miami couldn't...Draft a young PG and an atheltic big and lets keep moving in the right direction after this.

It's only Monday, but these funny stories are already in the headlines...

1) Super-recruit John Wall breaking and entering before signing a letter-of-intent.

2) Oliver Perez siging a huge deal and then being sent to the bullpen after developing Mark Wohlers disease.

3) Biren Ealy and Kolomona Kapanui of the New Orleans Saints getting drunk and then showing their junk to 2 random women at an apartment complex.

4) Joba Chamberlain's Mother is a Meth addict. At least she will be easy to buy for with Mother's Day coming up this weekend.

5) A Mexican soccer player spit and snotted on an opponent and told him he had Swine Flu in the 90th minute of a match.

Tourney thoughts and MLB Picks...

The Elite 8 games today and tomorrow certainly set up to be pretty dang good. The 4 matchups in the regional finals feature all 4 #1 seeds against 2 #2's and 2 #3's. Should be fun to watch. The matchup of Griffin-Hansbrough will be very fun to watch as will Nova-Pitt. A year after all #1 seeds made it to the Final 4 for the 1st time, we may have repeat the very next year. Villanova and Oklahoma have the best chance to spoil the party.

Next week opens up the MLB season and I have a few predictions to make. There doesn't seem to be a clear-cut favorite, and I think there are 12-15 teams that believe they have a legitimate shot of winning it all. I really like what the D-Backs have done this off-season mixing with their young players. They signed Garland to solidify their rotation after aces Haren and Webb. Hard-throwing Max Scherzer will also provide depth. Their young outfielders Chris Young and Justin Upton are on the verge of becoming stars and Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy are solid hitters in the middle of their lineup. Throw in Stephen Drew, who I think will make the All-Star game this year, and you have a pretty good team. The bullpen just needs to hold up.

NL East - Philly
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - D-Backs
Wild Card - Braves

AL East - Boston
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Angels
WIld Card - Rays

NL MVP - H. Ramirez
AL MVP - M. Cabrera

NL CY Young - Lincecum
AL CY Young - Halladay

NL ROY - C. Maybin
AL ROY - E. Andrus

NLCS - D-Backs over Cubs
ALCS - Angels over Red Sox

WS - Angels over D-Backs

Anyone else want to go on record???

Tourney Thoughts...

While the 1st 2 days of the NCAA tournament did not produce any monumental upsets, there were still a few surprises in my eyes. The most surprising results were the four ACC schools that decided not to show up for a large portion of their games (BC, FSU, Clemson, Wake) and West Virginia. It has got to be frustrating to be a Wake fan, gutting out the post-Chris Paul years of bad basketball only to think you were back on the map this year. Then, after a #1 ranking in January, you lose in the 1st round of the NCAA tourney and will possibly lose 3 underclassman to the NBA Draft.

Teams that have looked the best? Memphis against MD, Nova vs UCLA, and UConn vs Texas A&M. Everytime I see Memphis, I think about how ridiculous they might be next year. They are in their 4th straight year with 30+ wins now, and could add the top 3 HS players in the nation. Taggert is a junior and will probably stay one more year, but Evans is likely gone to the NBA.

What kind of players have been in the top 3 in recent years? Think about a college team last year with Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon? Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, and Brendan Wright? Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Al Jefferson? Or Lebron, Luol Deng, and Shannon Brown? Just goes to show you the type of players that make the top 3 of the recruiting rankings.

But, for this year, UNC with Lawson probably has the easist path to Detroit, but the 3 #1 seeds from the Big East can beat anybody. After seeing Memphis yesterday, they could be there as well. Should be fun next weekend.

Roy Oswalt against Japan tonight in the WBC semi-finals. Evan Longoria was just added to the USA roster, why wasn't he there all along?

More Madness...

The field is becoming more clear after more madness yesterday. Bubble teams like Penn State and Creighton cringed when USC beat Arizona St and are rooting hard for Tennessee this afternoon. Maryland played their way in - the UNC, Wake, and Michigan State wins will put them in the field. I think Auburn should be in - you can't always just look at RPI, this team is playing well now and finished very strong. The interesting part will be what the committee does with the Big 10. I would leave out Minnesota, Wisonsin, and Penn State. Minnesota beat Louisville early, but finished 4-6 and lost their last 6 road games including the conference tourney. Wisconsin has a decent non-conference win in Virginia Tech, but UGA also beat them in December. They were a pretty good home team this year, but no NCAA games are on their court. Losing in the 1st round of the Big 10 tourney sealed it for the Badgers.

Here is how I would seed the tourney:

#1 - UNC, Pitt, Memphis, Louisville
#2 - UConn, Oklahoma, Kansas, Duke
#3 - Gonzaga, Michigan St, Missouri, Villanova
#4 - Washington, Missouri, Wake Forest, Florida St
#5 - Purdue, West Virginia, UCLA, Syracuse
#6 - LSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Illinois
#7 - Xavier, Marquette, BYU, Ohio State
#8 - Oklahoma St, Butler, Texas, Utah
#9 - Cal, Texas A&M, Dayton, BYU
#10 - Utah St, BC, South Carolina, St Marys
#11 - Maryland, Temple, Auburn, Michigan
#12 - USC, Creighton, VCU, Siena
#13 - N. Iowa, Cleveland St, Akron, WKU
#14 - SF Austin, NDSU, ETSU, Binghamton
#15 - Radford, Portland St, CS-Northridge, Cornell
#16 - American, Morehead St, Robert Morris, Morgan St-Alabama St

Butler and Xavier losing in their conference tournaments really hurt the bubble teams. Creighton is on the outs if Mississippi State beats Tennessee today. I think St Mary's is in easy and Michigan has the best resume of the Big 10 teams trying to get in.

Last 6 in - Creighton, Auburn, Michigan, Maryland, South Carolina, BC
First 6 out - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Providence, Arizona, SDSU, New Mexico

Who is in?

Who is in right now? I would take...

A&M
American
Arizona
ASU
BC
Binghamton
Butler
BYU
Cal
Chattanooga
Clemson
Cleveland St
Cornell
CS-Northridge
Cuse
Dayton
Duke
ETSU
FSU
Illinois
Kansas
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Memphis
Miami (OH)
Michigan
Mizzou
Morgan St
MSU
NDSU
New Mexico
Nova
Ohio St
Ok St
Oklahoma
Pitt
Providence
Purdue
Radford
Robert Morris
SDSU
SFA
Siena
South Carolina
St Marys
Texas
UCLA
Uconn
UNC
UNI
UNLV
UT
Utah
Utah St
UTM
VCU
Wake
Washington
Weber St
Wisconsin
WKU
WVU
Xavier
Zaga

I think Creighton and Davidson are on the outs right now. Not enough big wins and lost before Conference Champ Games. St Marys played their way in after Mills came back - even though they were blown out, the Zags are legit.

The teams that need to win a few this weekend are VT, Auburn, Minnesota and Penn State. Penn State and Minnesota just aren't tournament teams in my eyes right now. They need strong performances in the Big 10 Tourney. Miami and Maryland can earn a birth by getting to the ACCCG. Lunardi doesn't like Providence, but after today they have 11 Big East wins and that is good enough for me.

Lots more to come the next few days, stay tuned.

March means hoops...

It is March on the calendar, so lets start talking NCAA tournament. The breakdown today will be a recurring blog, looking at teams that can win the tourney and who should be in/out. To kick off, here are the four teams I think are most likely to win the tournament...

UNC
UConn
Louisville
Pitt

I don't like Oklahoma but think they can make the Elite 8. Duke still has a glaring weakness inside that all of the above teams can take advantage of, and Marquette fell off the title picture when Dominic James went down for the season. Gonzaga is intriguing with their size and defensive prowess, but I don't know if they can win 6 straight in the tourney. Kansas is playing well now, but the Big 12 is not as good as it has been.

Memphis will be a trendy pick because they almost won it all last year, but this years team is not close to last seasons. I don't think the Big 10 or Pac 10 is very good either, so mark off Michigan State and UCLA.

I don't see any way I don't have UNC in my bracket. They are the most talented team and have legit scoring threats all over the place. Until Jerome Dyson went down, I was unsure if UConn might be my choice, but that injury just made it more clear.

As for the bubble teams, they all need to root for teams like Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga, Utah State, Xavier, Davidson, etc to win their conference tourneys to make sure those leagues don't get 2 bids. I think Maryland is in after winning at NCSU last night, and are a lock if they beat Wake tomorrow. Also in the ACC, BC is safe for now and Va Tech and Miami have work to do.

The Big East bubble teams are interesting. Providence should be good with 10 conference wins, but Cincy, ND, and G-town have to win out and perform well in the Big East tourney. I think the SEC will get 5 bids, but Florida has to make a late push after yesterdays loss.

Minnesota needs at least 3 more wins and Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State all need to finish strong. The Pac-10 seems set with its 5 teams (UCLA, Cal, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State)- if Zona beats Cal and Stanford at home this week they become a lock. Dayton should be in with wins over Marquette and Auburn, but Rhode Island needs to win the A-10 tourney. If BYU wins their last 2 they are in, but New Mexico has to get the automatic birth.

It looks like the Big 12 will get 5 bids with only KU, Oklahoma, and Mizzou being locks for now. Texas looks to be good with a win over Baylor tonight and the Oklahoma State-Kansas State winner tomorrow is probably safe. Texas A&M can get in by beating Missouri on their Senior Night this weekend.

Some early predictions at some sleeper teams? Teams that are probably going to be seeded 10+ that have a good shot at advancing...

Arizona
Western Kentucky
Siena

Zona has 2 lottery picks and Nic Wise and seems to be peaking at the right time. WKU owns a win over Louisville and has 3 legit players that, when healthy, make them very dangerous. Siena is a solid and very deep team that played Kansas and Pitt very tough on the road.

What about teams seeded 6-9 that have a good chance to win 3-4 games?? Depending on how the brackets turn out, look out for these teams...

Florida State
Arizona State
West Virginia
South Carolina

Florida State, while not very deep, has a big-time senior stud at point guard that can carry his team. Arizona State has 2 lottery picks that make a very good inside-out tandem. West Virginia has been under the radar, but can beat almost anyone and have an experienced tournament coach. South Carolina is mega-athletic and will give a lot of teams match-up problems.

That's a quick look at where we stand now, but 2 weeks can change a lot. Stay tuned.