Welcome to the 5th annual edition of the top 10 Braves prospects, an annual summer blog that looks at current minor league players for the Braves and ranks them based on potential and success so far in 2012. Side note for the 2012 edition is that Aroyds Vizcaino will not be included, as he was a lock for the big league bullpen before the season and even though he is not with the team now and recovering from Tommy John surgery, he won't be on the list. Here is your 2012 edition, with players 2011 ranking in parentheses.
1) Julio Teheran (1)- Even with his recent struggles and questions about attitude, Julio still tops the list and is currently boasting a 6-5 record and a 4.92 ERA at AAA Gwinnett. Teheran still has the stuff and make up to be a front line starter as early as 2013.
2) Christian Bethancourt (5) - Up 3 places from last year is catching phenom Christian Bethancourt. His defensive skills have been wow-ing scouts for years, and he is close to becoming the next big thing in the big leagues. Bethancourt boasts a sub 1.8 pop time to 2nd base and has an elite arm to go along with elite quickness, the likes most haven't seen since early 90's Ivan Rodriguez. His offense still has room to grow, but he projects quite well there as well, he is currently hitting .254 with just 4 extra base hits in 52 games in Mississippi.
3) Edward Salcedo (4) - Playing in Advanced-A Lynchburg, the 21 year old third baseman is hitting .273-9-38 as he is likely the long-term 3B replacement for Chipper Jones. Salcedo still needs some time, at least 1 full season above Advanced-A before he gets a shot, but look for his in the Atlanta lineup in 2014 if he continues to progress.
4) Sean Gilmartin (NR) - Gilmartin was the Braves 1st round pick in the 2011 draft out of FSU, and he has been extremely effective at AA Mississippi. Through 17 starts in 2012, Sean is 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA and he is getting better each time out. Seven of his last 10 outings have been 6+ innings with 3 or fewer runs allowed, topped off with a complete game 4 hitter his last time out. A lefty that knows how to pitch, Gilmartin has a chance at cracking the big league rotation in 2014.
5) JR Graham (NR) - Graham, another 2011 draft pick, was a 4th rounder out of Santa Clara. Pitching at Lynchburg, Graham is currently 8-1 with a 2.76 ERA and is showing tremendous ability to throw strikes and get people out. Look for this righty to continue to improve with a possibility of moving to the bullpen in order to make the MLB club.
6) Evan Gattis (NR) - The fact that Gattis is playing pro ball, let alone on a list like this is quite remarkable. If you don't know his story, click here to read all about it. Gattis, a catcher, hasn't played in over 6 weeks with an injury, but was hitting .336-13-43 in just 37 minor league games before getting hurt. He is still improving as a receiver, but his power is what makes him such an intriguing prospect.
7) Joey Terdoslavich (NR) - Terdo had a rough start to 2011, hitting .180-4-20 in 53 games at AAA Gwinnett before his demotion. Clearly, the 23 year old switch hitting corner infielder has a ton of talent, but wasn't quite AAA ready yet. Joey has rebounded nicely in AA, hitting .287 with 12 extra base hits in 28 games and still projects as an excellent prospect.
8) Lucas Sims (NR) - Sims, the Braves top pick last month, has gotten off to a quick start in the GCL, striking out 10 in his 1st 7 innings, while giving up only 2 hits. He has a power fastball and good command, but it will be a while before you see him anywhere near Atlanta.
9) Matt Lipka (8) - Matt has moved to CF where he can use his speed a little more, and his bat is coming around nicely as well. Matt was hitting .271-2-13 with 12 SB's hitting leadoff for Lynchburg, before being sidelined with an injury a few weeks ago.
10) Todd Cunningham (NR) - I am very pleased to put Todd on this list in 2012, as I first met Todd when he was still a collegiate player at Jacksonville State. Following his career since being the Braves 2nd round pick in 2010, he is really putting things together this year in Lynchburg, making the All-Star team and leading the league in hitting for most of the season. Todd is currently hitting .307 with 15 doubles and 31 RBI in 74 games and providing the organization with the type of athlete and character they hope to develop each draft.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Monday, July 2, 2012
Atlanta teams talking trade...
The Braves and Hawks, according to reports, have been in deep talks with many different teams as they try to accomplish 2 different things. The Braves are looking for a veteran arm to put into their top 3, along with Hudson/Hanson, and put Jurrjens and Minor/Delgado/Teheran as the #5 starter. Although one of the young guys would likely be the piece moved to acquire this veteran arm.
I would be fine with a deal centered around Delgado and a 2 top offensive prospects like Salcedo/Drury/Terdoslavich for Zach Greinke, but not for Dempster/Vargas/Garza as long as Greinke is signed to an extension when the trade is made. Payroll is available for a starter as Chipper comes off the payroll and Greinke is the age and has the stuff of a guy I'd be comfortable locking up to a 5/85 type contract. The team can't move Bethancourt as the McCann issue becomes more iffy. Brian is a heck of a player and is having a tough season, but I still don't think his market value will be a good investment for the club, especially with a top prospect in the minors.
The other option is to move Medlen into the rotation, but I still believe he will be a key 7th/8th inning guy down the stretch, especially if Venters can't work out his erratic outings. The key to making a big move here though is you get the right guy (Greinke) and lock him up long-term. As we all know, the Teixeira deal has a lot of fans scared at pulling the trigger on a deal like this as Andrus/Feliz/Harrison have all made All-Star teams and Salty came dang close this year...
The Hawks on the other hand aren't interested in dealing players for the purpose of getting better, but clearing future payroll obligations to help re-build the team. New GM Danny Ferry seems to have the mindset that he will build the team and he needs to shed some players in order to have the financial flexibility to do so. The speculated Joe Johnson deal, which would net Atlanta Petro/J.Williams/Farmar/Morrow would likely decrease the teams expected win total for 12/13, but give them just Teague/Horford/Jenkins and Marvin's player option as their obligations for 13/14. That would give Ferry 35+ million to work with to re-sign Josh and explore other free agents.
However, this is all based on moving Joe and his awful contract. What makes the contract bad wasn't year 1 or 2, or even this year or next. It's 13/14 and 14/15 when he will be making 23-25 million per year in his mid-30's with bad knees. If they can get out of these years, they have to do it.
But know that the only way Brooklyn does this deal is if they believe they can use the "Big 3" model and acquire Dwight/Joe along with bringing back Deron Williams. The Hawks can't get Marshon Brooks, as it is reported they do, because he is part of the Lopez/Brooks/1sts that are going to Orlando for Dwight. If Brooklyn believes they can get Deron/Dwight, they will gladly take on Joe for their 3rd star and take their chances the next few years with those 3 guys and veterans/ring chasers.
That would give you this team for the 12/13 Hawks
Teague/Farmar
Morrow/Jenkins
Williams/Free Agent
Smith/ZaZa/Ivan
Horford/Petro/JWilliams
Not sure what is going on with Hinrich, but this could be the team...likely a 41-41 team, in my opinion...
I would be fine with a deal centered around Delgado and a 2 top offensive prospects like Salcedo/Drury/Terdoslavich for Zach Greinke, but not for Dempster/Vargas/Garza as long as Greinke is signed to an extension when the trade is made. Payroll is available for a starter as Chipper comes off the payroll and Greinke is the age and has the stuff of a guy I'd be comfortable locking up to a 5/85 type contract. The team can't move Bethancourt as the McCann issue becomes more iffy. Brian is a heck of a player and is having a tough season, but I still don't think his market value will be a good investment for the club, especially with a top prospect in the minors.
The other option is to move Medlen into the rotation, but I still believe he will be a key 7th/8th inning guy down the stretch, especially if Venters can't work out his erratic outings. The key to making a big move here though is you get the right guy (Greinke) and lock him up long-term. As we all know, the Teixeira deal has a lot of fans scared at pulling the trigger on a deal like this as Andrus/Feliz/Harrison have all made All-Star teams and Salty came dang close this year...
The Hawks on the other hand aren't interested in dealing players for the purpose of getting better, but clearing future payroll obligations to help re-build the team. New GM Danny Ferry seems to have the mindset that he will build the team and he needs to shed some players in order to have the financial flexibility to do so. The speculated Joe Johnson deal, which would net Atlanta Petro/J.Williams/Farmar/Morrow would likely decrease the teams expected win total for 12/13, but give them just Teague/Horford/Jenkins and Marvin's player option as their obligations for 13/14. That would give Ferry 35+ million to work with to re-sign Josh and explore other free agents.
However, this is all based on moving Joe and his awful contract. What makes the contract bad wasn't year 1 or 2, or even this year or next. It's 13/14 and 14/15 when he will be making 23-25 million per year in his mid-30's with bad knees. If they can get out of these years, they have to do it.
But know that the only way Brooklyn does this deal is if they believe they can use the "Big 3" model and acquire Dwight/Joe along with bringing back Deron Williams. The Hawks can't get Marshon Brooks, as it is reported they do, because he is part of the Lopez/Brooks/1sts that are going to Orlando for Dwight. If Brooklyn believes they can get Deron/Dwight, they will gladly take on Joe for their 3rd star and take their chances the next few years with those 3 guys and veterans/ring chasers.
That would give you this team for the 12/13 Hawks
Teague/Farmar
Morrow/Jenkins
Williams/Free Agent
Smith/ZaZa/Ivan
Horford/Petro/JWilliams
Not sure what is going on with Hinrich, but this could be the team...likely a 41-41 team, in my opinion...
Friday, June 1, 2012
How good/bad is Jason Heyward?
Comments on yesterday's blog sparked many thoughts, so an analysis of how good or bad Jason Heyward is will be performed along with some case studies to see if things may get back on the right track sooner rather than later.
First, what earned Heyward the hype of the #1 prospect in all of baseball in 2009 had a lot to do with his OPS ability. He is above average but not great in the categories of defense, throwing arm, and hitting for power. What impressed scouts was his knowledge of the strike zone, ability to hit to all fields, and overall abilities as a hitter. In 240 career minor league games and 882 at bats, Heyward posted a line of .317/29/125/.897. So less than 30 HRs in about a season and a half of big league ball, but that .897 is a top 20 MLB mark year in and year out. The progression of that OPS number to the major league level earned Heyard his accolades.
Then, in 2010, Heyward goes out from Day 1 and impresses, going .277/18/72/.849 and everyone agrees that the sky is the limit for good ole Jason. Well, those numbers dipped in an injury plagued 2011 with a line of .227/14/42/.708 and to .233/6/23/.739 so far in 2012. An OPS in the high 800's represents a season like Mike Stanton/Justin Upton in 2011, one in the low 700's is more like Kelly Johnson - not what you want out of your right fielder.
There have been several reasons for Heyward's demise, one of which was brought up by Rob in yesterday's blog about having a "sophomore slump." Those do exist in the big leagues, mostly due to advanced scouting reports and pitchers gaining a better understanding on how to pitch you. There has also been some mental issues which are expected with someone who hasn't experienced failure in this game to the level Heyward did in 2011 and this year. Also, there have been nagging injuries and, what I think has led to his drop in production, an increased number of bad strikeouts.
In Heyward's minor league career, he struck out 13.7% of the time he came to the plate and walked 10.4% of the time. In his rookie season, the strikeout percentage jumped to 20.5% but the walk percentage went up as well to 14.6%. A lot of strikeouts, but also quite a bit of walks.
Last year, the strikeout number was about the same at 20.4%, but the walk percentage dropped to 11.1%. This year, the strikeout percentage has gone up again to 25.3% and the walk percentage has remained the same at 11.1%.
So, while Heyward is still striking out a lot, his walks are down from his impressive rookie campaign. A lot of those at bats where in the minor leagues and in his rookie season were walks have turned into Jason waving at balls out of the strike zone for K's.
And while his OPS numbers would be increased north of .750 if this walk rate had stayed the same, the fact that the strikeouts continue to go up raises a huge concern. If Heyward isn't a .300 hitter or a 30 HR guy, he can't be a huge strikeout guy.
I still think a healthy Heyward will be productive, as Beez pointed out, he is still 22 and could be playing his 1st year of A ball out of college.
Lets take a quick look at some other young outfielders and how they have progressed their 1st few years when compared to Heyward.
Jeff Francoeur
2005 - .300/14/45/.884
2006 - .260/29/103/.742
2007 - .293/19/105/.782
2008 - .239/11/71/.653
2009 - .280/15/76/.732
2010 - .249/13/65/.683
2011 - .285/20/87/.805
Started hot, cooled down a bit, went ice cold, but now is productive again.
BJ Upton
2007 - .300/24/82/.894
2008 - .273/9/67/.783
2009 - .241/11/65/.686
2010 - .237/18/62//745
2011 - .243/23/81/.759
Also up and down, but has remained (outside of 09) a solid OPS guy despite his low averages the last 3 years.
Ben Grieve
1998 - .288/18/89/.844
1999 - .265/28/86/.840
2000 - .279/27/104/.845
2001 - 264/11/72/.760
2002 - .251/19/64/.781
Entered 2003 at age 26 and played 201 more career games before retiring
Some fast starts, hiccups, and in some cases it comes back and in others it just putters along or goes in the tank completely. Having the expectation of being the #1 rated prospect had fans looking for another Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Pujols. Fact is, there aren't many players like that out there, and being a top prospect doesn't guarantee anything, just ask Andy Marte.
I see Heyward getting better at hitting lefties and gaining more confidence at the plate the remainder of this season. I think in his prime he is a .275/25/100/.850 guy and his development will require patience from the fan base.
Remember, he is only 22.
First, what earned Heyward the hype of the #1 prospect in all of baseball in 2009 had a lot to do with his OPS ability. He is above average but not great in the categories of defense, throwing arm, and hitting for power. What impressed scouts was his knowledge of the strike zone, ability to hit to all fields, and overall abilities as a hitter. In 240 career minor league games and 882 at bats, Heyward posted a line of .317/29/125/.897. So less than 30 HRs in about a season and a half of big league ball, but that .897 is a top 20 MLB mark year in and year out. The progression of that OPS number to the major league level earned Heyard his accolades.
Then, in 2010, Heyward goes out from Day 1 and impresses, going .277/18/72/.849 and everyone agrees that the sky is the limit for good ole Jason. Well, those numbers dipped in an injury plagued 2011 with a line of .227/14/42/.708 and to .233/6/23/.739 so far in 2012. An OPS in the high 800's represents a season like Mike Stanton/Justin Upton in 2011, one in the low 700's is more like Kelly Johnson - not what you want out of your right fielder.
There have been several reasons for Heyward's demise, one of which was brought up by Rob in yesterday's blog about having a "sophomore slump." Those do exist in the big leagues, mostly due to advanced scouting reports and pitchers gaining a better understanding on how to pitch you. There has also been some mental issues which are expected with someone who hasn't experienced failure in this game to the level Heyward did in 2011 and this year. Also, there have been nagging injuries and, what I think has led to his drop in production, an increased number of bad strikeouts.
In Heyward's minor league career, he struck out 13.7% of the time he came to the plate and walked 10.4% of the time. In his rookie season, the strikeout percentage jumped to 20.5% but the walk percentage went up as well to 14.6%. A lot of strikeouts, but also quite a bit of walks.
Last year, the strikeout number was about the same at 20.4%, but the walk percentage dropped to 11.1%. This year, the strikeout percentage has gone up again to 25.3% and the walk percentage has remained the same at 11.1%.
So, while Heyward is still striking out a lot, his walks are down from his impressive rookie campaign. A lot of those at bats where in the minor leagues and in his rookie season were walks have turned into Jason waving at balls out of the strike zone for K's.
And while his OPS numbers would be increased north of .750 if this walk rate had stayed the same, the fact that the strikeouts continue to go up raises a huge concern. If Heyward isn't a .300 hitter or a 30 HR guy, he can't be a huge strikeout guy.
I still think a healthy Heyward will be productive, as Beez pointed out, he is still 22 and could be playing his 1st year of A ball out of college.
Lets take a quick look at some other young outfielders and how they have progressed their 1st few years when compared to Heyward.
Jeff Francoeur
2005 - .300/14/45/.884
2006 - .260/29/103/.742
2007 - .293/19/105/.782
2008 - .239/11/71/.653
2009 - .280/15/76/.732
2010 - .249/13/65/.683
2011 - .285/20/87/.805
Started hot, cooled down a bit, went ice cold, but now is productive again.
BJ Upton
2007 - .300/24/82/.894
2008 - .273/9/67/.783
2009 - .241/11/65/.686
2010 - .237/18/62//745
2011 - .243/23/81/.759
Also up and down, but has remained (outside of 09) a solid OPS guy despite his low averages the last 3 years.
Ben Grieve
1998 - .288/18/89/.844
1999 - .265/28/86/.840
2000 - .279/27/104/.845
2001 - 264/11/72/.760
2002 - .251/19/64/.781
Entered 2003 at age 26 and played 201 more career games before retiring
Some fast starts, hiccups, and in some cases it comes back and in others it just putters along or goes in the tank completely. Having the expectation of being the #1 rated prospect had fans looking for another Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Pujols. Fact is, there aren't many players like that out there, and being a top prospect doesn't guarantee anything, just ask Andy Marte.
I see Heyward getting better at hitting lefties and gaining more confidence at the plate the remainder of this season. I think in his prime he is a .275/25/100/.850 guy and his development will require patience from the fan base.
Remember, he is only 22.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
MLB Draft Monday
I know most people don't follow the MLB Draft too much, being that there are so many collegiate and high school players in the player pool and they are not the easiest to see actually play, but it is always an intriguing event, more so now that each team has a dollar limit to spend.
The consensus #1 pick is GA's own Bryan Buxton out of Appling County High School. He is viewed as the essential MLB draft guy - tall, cannon for an arm, hits for power/average, runs like the wind. He is being drafted as an outfielder, with lots of comparisons to the Upton brothers.
There is a big difference in some franchises philosophies, with some preferring collegiate players over high school "projects," but in my opinion, you need to draft more on results than projections, for example Tim Beckham over Buster Posey.
Buxton may be the next Justin Upton, but how accurate have the scouts been on the past few HS outfielders taken at the top of the draft?
2011 - #5 Bubba Starling (too early to tell, hasn't appeared in Minor League game)
2010 - #15 Jake Skole - .253/14/100 in 800 career AB's, just got to Advanced A Ball
2009 - #3 Donovan Tate - .248/48 RBI/33 SB in 98 career games, all in low A Ball
2008 - #14 Aaron Hicks - .263/27/170 in 400 career games, in AA
2007 - #14 Jason Heyward - Runner up ROY, every day RF for Braves
2006 - #14 Travis Snider - 28 career HR's for Blue Jays, viewed still as good prospect
2005 - #1 Justin Upton - Exactly what scouts see in Buxton, elite level major leaguer
2004 - #21 Greg Golson - In AAA, career .260 minor league hitter
2003 - #1 Delmon Young - Career .286 hitter with 74 HR's in big leagues
2002 - #2 BJ Upton - Everyday CF on top-tier team
Certainly some really good players here, but also some guys that haven't panned out. Lots of scouts really like Buxton, I see him more of a Dexter Fowler than Justin Upton.
If I am picking #1, these are the guys I would consider...
Mark Appel RHP Stanford - 6'5 starting pitcher that throws 96-98 with good mechanics. He isn't quite as big a prospect as Justin Verlander, but has the size, stuff, and make-up to warrant the #1 pick. Would also be quite a story for the Cardinal to have Andrew Luck, Appel, and Nnemkadi Ogwumike all go #1 in 3 different drafts.
Mike Zunino C Florida - Power hitting catcher that is an above average receiver/thrower and captain of #1 team in Division 1. Projects as a 5-6 hitter and run producer that is certainly All-Star calibur.
Michael Wacha - RHP Texas A&M - Future front-line starter that pounds the strike zone with 3 really good pitches, the best of which is his change-up. Can run the fastball up to 96 when needed, and spots his pitches really well.
As for last years draft, several names have gotten off to pretty good starts in 2012, most notably RHP Dylan Bundy, who since your last update here has been promoted to Advanced A, which may produce less X-Box like results for Dylan. He finally gave up a run in 1st start, but still holds a 0.51 ERA in 10 professional starts.
The 3 collegiate pitchers taken ahead of Bundy, Danny Hultzen/Gerrit Cole/Trevor Bauer all have gotten off to fast starts, with Hultzen (1.59 ERA in 10 starts) and Bauer (1.74 ERA in 9 starts) putting up the best numbers.
Lots of HS players are still in extended spring training, but some of you may remember CF Jackie Bradley, Jr from USC, who dropped to pick #40 after an injury-filled 2011 in Columbia. Well, Jackie is leading the Carolina league in hitting at .358 and is showing why he was a projected top 10 pick before his injuries pushed him down draft boards.
Braves 1st rounder Sean Gilmartin has been very steady at Mississippi (AA), putting up several quality starts. Utah 1B CJ Cron has also been hot, hitting .286/7/38 in advanced A, giving him career minor league totals already through 86 games of .295/20/79.
Some local names to look for in Round 1 Monday after Buxton include Georgia Southern teammates Victor Roache and Chris Beck, Brookwood HS RHP Lucas Sims, UGA LHP Alex Wood, and possibly Parkview 1B Matt Olsen...
The consensus #1 pick is GA's own Bryan Buxton out of Appling County High School. He is viewed as the essential MLB draft guy - tall, cannon for an arm, hits for power/average, runs like the wind. He is being drafted as an outfielder, with lots of comparisons to the Upton brothers.
There is a big difference in some franchises philosophies, with some preferring collegiate players over high school "projects," but in my opinion, you need to draft more on results than projections, for example Tim Beckham over Buster Posey.
Buxton may be the next Justin Upton, but how accurate have the scouts been on the past few HS outfielders taken at the top of the draft?
2011 - #5 Bubba Starling (too early to tell, hasn't appeared in Minor League game)
2010 - #15 Jake Skole - .253/14/100 in 800 career AB's, just got to Advanced A Ball
2009 - #3 Donovan Tate - .248/48 RBI/33 SB in 98 career games, all in low A Ball
2008 - #14 Aaron Hicks - .263/27/170 in 400 career games, in AA
2007 - #14 Jason Heyward - Runner up ROY, every day RF for Braves
2006 - #14 Travis Snider - 28 career HR's for Blue Jays, viewed still as good prospect
2005 - #1 Justin Upton - Exactly what scouts see in Buxton, elite level major leaguer
2004 - #21 Greg Golson - In AAA, career .260 minor league hitter
2003 - #1 Delmon Young - Career .286 hitter with 74 HR's in big leagues
2002 - #2 BJ Upton - Everyday CF on top-tier team
Certainly some really good players here, but also some guys that haven't panned out. Lots of scouts really like Buxton, I see him more of a Dexter Fowler than Justin Upton.
If I am picking #1, these are the guys I would consider...
Mark Appel RHP Stanford - 6'5 starting pitcher that throws 96-98 with good mechanics. He isn't quite as big a prospect as Justin Verlander, but has the size, stuff, and make-up to warrant the #1 pick. Would also be quite a story for the Cardinal to have Andrew Luck, Appel, and Nnemkadi Ogwumike all go #1 in 3 different drafts.
Mike Zunino C Florida - Power hitting catcher that is an above average receiver/thrower and captain of #1 team in Division 1. Projects as a 5-6 hitter and run producer that is certainly All-Star calibur.
Michael Wacha - RHP Texas A&M - Future front-line starter that pounds the strike zone with 3 really good pitches, the best of which is his change-up. Can run the fastball up to 96 when needed, and spots his pitches really well.
As for last years draft, several names have gotten off to pretty good starts in 2012, most notably RHP Dylan Bundy, who since your last update here has been promoted to Advanced A, which may produce less X-Box like results for Dylan. He finally gave up a run in 1st start, but still holds a 0.51 ERA in 10 professional starts.
The 3 collegiate pitchers taken ahead of Bundy, Danny Hultzen/Gerrit Cole/Trevor Bauer all have gotten off to fast starts, with Hultzen (1.59 ERA in 10 starts) and Bauer (1.74 ERA in 9 starts) putting up the best numbers.
Lots of HS players are still in extended spring training, but some of you may remember CF Jackie Bradley, Jr from USC, who dropped to pick #40 after an injury-filled 2011 in Columbia. Well, Jackie is leading the Carolina league in hitting at .358 and is showing why he was a projected top 10 pick before his injuries pushed him down draft boards.
Braves 1st rounder Sean Gilmartin has been very steady at Mississippi (AA), putting up several quality starts. Utah 1B CJ Cron has also been hot, hitting .286/7/38 in advanced A, giving him career minor league totals already through 86 games of .295/20/79.
Some local names to look for in Round 1 Monday after Buxton include Georgia Southern teammates Victor Roache and Chris Beck, Brookwood HS RHP Lucas Sims, UGA LHP Alex Wood, and possibly Parkview 1B Matt Olsen...
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Wednesday Musings...
A few observations/stats/musings as we pass the mid-point of May...
It's ridiculous that Derek Lowe leads the AL in wins and ERA after this much of the season...He has gone 6 innings or more and given up less than 3 runs in 6 of his 8 starts, something he couldn't do in any of his September starts last year for the Braves, who finished 1 game out of the post-season. He also is coming off his 4th career shutout, after not even throwing a single complete game in 101 starts as a Brave.
Michael Bourn is getting a lot of national press for his hot start, and the fact that he is a free agent seems to come up each time. He doesn't rely solely on his speed, but that is a big part of his game. The being said, he is on the wrong side of 30 and will lose a bit of that weapon as his next contract ends. With so many bad contracts in baseball right now, I don't think anyone will thrown 6/100+ at him like he and his agent think, but if I am the Braves, he is certainly worth a 5/75 deal - a deal the team can afford with likely contracts coming off their payroll in Jones, Hudson, and Jurrjens.
It looks like for the 2nd time in 5 years, the top pick in the MLB Draft will be a prep player from Georgia. Bryan Buxton from Appling County has skyrocketed up draft boards since last summer, and looks to be the guy to go #1. Hopefully, he has more success than 2008 #1 Tim Beckham, who is currently serving a 50 game suspension for drug use.
Someone sent me this story today about Saints fans and their quest to purchase a billboard in downtown Atlanta featuring the words "Who Dat" so Falcon fans will, "feel our presence every single time they approach their ridiculous circus tent of a stadium during the second quarter on Sundays." I actually hope this happens...the idea that Saint fans are so obsessed with the Falcons that they would take their disposable income in hopes that any Falcon fan will do anything but laugh at it is fantastic. Sure, we will take your tens-of-thousands of dollars, your city is certainly in great shape and doesn't need any extra dollars for anything. We are also trying to build a new stadium and every dollar will indeed count. Thanks guys you and your tainted Super Bowl always come through.
It appears the Orioles found a gem last year in Oklahoma HS pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bringing him along slowly (he didn't pitch past the 3rd in his 1st 3 starts), Bundy has absolutely dominated Single A lineups. His stats through 7 starts:
25 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 36 K
Bundy was the Gatorade national HS Player of the year, so he was highly sought after, but that kind of start is a little ridiculous.
Amazing how the SA Spurs still fly under the radar in the NBA...it's just a shame that they are in a small market so companies like ESPN think that no one cares and would rather hear about Rajon Rondo's haircut than the Spurs current 15 game winning streak. Their last loss was over a month ago, and they did it again last night by blowing out the Clippers. The Duncan/Ginobili/Parker threesome is healthy and productive, they are getting great minutes from Danny Green, Gary Neal, and Kawhi Leonard, and Pop is pulling all the right strings again. How they are not getting more pub as title contenders is mind-boggling...
It appears that the Tebow-to-NY media fest will be just as bad as we all expected. In just under 2 months since the trade, we have seen the following headlines of stories:
Jets QBs coach praises Tim Tebow
It's ridiculous that Derek Lowe leads the AL in wins and ERA after this much of the season...He has gone 6 innings or more and given up less than 3 runs in 6 of his 8 starts, something he couldn't do in any of his September starts last year for the Braves, who finished 1 game out of the post-season. He also is coming off his 4th career shutout, after not even throwing a single complete game in 101 starts as a Brave.
Michael Bourn is getting a lot of national press for his hot start, and the fact that he is a free agent seems to come up each time. He doesn't rely solely on his speed, but that is a big part of his game. The being said, he is on the wrong side of 30 and will lose a bit of that weapon as his next contract ends. With so many bad contracts in baseball right now, I don't think anyone will thrown 6/100+ at him like he and his agent think, but if I am the Braves, he is certainly worth a 5/75 deal - a deal the team can afford with likely contracts coming off their payroll in Jones, Hudson, and Jurrjens.
It looks like for the 2nd time in 5 years, the top pick in the MLB Draft will be a prep player from Georgia. Bryan Buxton from Appling County has skyrocketed up draft boards since last summer, and looks to be the guy to go #1. Hopefully, he has more success than 2008 #1 Tim Beckham, who is currently serving a 50 game suspension for drug use.
Someone sent me this story today about Saints fans and their quest to purchase a billboard in downtown Atlanta featuring the words "Who Dat" so Falcon fans will, "feel our presence every single time they approach their ridiculous circus tent of a stadium during the second quarter on Sundays." I actually hope this happens...the idea that Saint fans are so obsessed with the Falcons that they would take their disposable income in hopes that any Falcon fan will do anything but laugh at it is fantastic. Sure, we will take your tens-of-thousands of dollars, your city is certainly in great shape and doesn't need any extra dollars for anything. We are also trying to build a new stadium and every dollar will indeed count. Thanks guys you and your tainted Super Bowl always come through.
It appears the Orioles found a gem last year in Oklahoma HS pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bringing him along slowly (he didn't pitch past the 3rd in his 1st 3 starts), Bundy has absolutely dominated Single A lineups. His stats through 7 starts:
25 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 36 K
Bundy was the Gatorade national HS Player of the year, so he was highly sought after, but that kind of start is a little ridiculous.
Amazing how the SA Spurs still fly under the radar in the NBA...it's just a shame that they are in a small market so companies like ESPN think that no one cares and would rather hear about Rajon Rondo's haircut than the Spurs current 15 game winning streak. Their last loss was over a month ago, and they did it again last night by blowing out the Clippers. The Duncan/Ginobili/Parker threesome is healthy and productive, they are getting great minutes from Danny Green, Gary Neal, and Kawhi Leonard, and Pop is pulling all the right strings again. How they are not getting more pub as title contenders is mind-boggling...
It appears that the Tebow-to-NY media fest will be just as bad as we all expected. In just under 2 months since the trade, we have seen the following headlines of stories:
Darrelle Revis raves about Tim Tebow
Tebow is the right play for Jets
Rex Ryan thrilled with QB situation
Tim Tebow adjusting to N.Y. (Includes info on how he changed his dogs name from Bronco to Bronx)Jets QBs coach praises Tim Tebow
Jets coach Rex Ryan impressed by Tim Tebow
Goodness, and this has been the off-season...
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The freakish Josh Hamilton
We have seen quite a start to the baseball season, for the 1st time ever we have had a perfect game and a 4 HR game in the same season. Oh yea, we also threw in a no-hitter already as well as a Scott Hairston cycle...quite the run of feats. Not to mention Matt Kemp's torrid start or Carlos Beltran returning from the dead...but it's our 4 HR guy Hamilton that I want to look at more closely as he appears to have a legit shot at a triple crown for several reasons.
1) Has fast guys that get on base hitting in front of him, Kinsler/Andrus
2) Has veteran power guys hitting behind him to protect him, Beltre/Cruz/Young
3) The team protects his health by giving him ample rest (will probably play in 145~ games)
4) Is a freak
Coming into Sunday, his line for the year was .402/18/41, that is a 30 point lead in AVG, 7 HR lead, and 12 more RBI than another AL player. Wow.
The run of seasons without a triple crown winner has moved to 45 this year, but the likelihood of us seeing another winner has been increasing. The 70's saw Rod Carew, Bill Matlock, Pete Rose, and other singles/doubles hitters win batting titles. Dick Allen made a run in 72 when he won HR and RBI titles but finished 10 points behind Carew for the 3rd leg. Home Run leaders in the 70's were guys that didn't hit for much average, like Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench, Jim Rice, and Reggie Jackson.
The 80's were even tougher to make a run at the triple crown as Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn won 9 of the 20 batting titles, with Willie McGee, Carney Lansford, Willie Wilson and other non-power hitters took up the others. No one made a serious run in the 80's as again sub-.300 hitters like Reggie Jackson, Dale Murphy, Andre Dawson, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, and Tony Armas were the HR champions.
The 90's though, saw a young slugger in 1992 named Gary Sheffield really look like a threat. Sheffield jumped out to a lead in all 3 categories over the summer of 92, and just couldn't hold on to the HR and RBI leads while finishing .330/33/100. Fred McGriff's 35 HR's won the title that year and Sheffield finished 9 RBI behind Darren Daulton for the RBI title.
Again in 1997, we saw the thin air in Colorado produce another threat with Larry Walker. Walker's MVP season produced a league-leading 49 HR's, but his .366 average was .06 behind Tony Gwynn and 130 RBI were 10 behind teammate Andres Galarraga. Walker did go on to win 3 of the next 4 batting titles, but was no where near the HR crown as these seasons were the Sosa/McGwire HR-fest.
The rest of the 2000's saw each category get a sneaky winner, and the trivia fans out there can have some fun with this one...2003 AL batting champ, 2004 AL HR champ, and the 2003 NL RBI champ were all off the radar winners...answers below.
Now for the reasoning on why we are getting closer and closer to seeing another winner. Take a look at the names of the guys that have won batting titles the last 10 years.
Bonds
Ramirez
Cabrera
Hamilton
Holliday
Pujols
Earlier in the 2000's it looked like guys like Todd Helton and Ichiro may go on runs like Boggs and Gwynn, but it was been big power guys that have taken home batting titles.
Pujols led the league in all 3 categories over the span of 2 seasons, Bonds couldn't rack enough at bats with all his intentional walks to get HR's and RBI in 04, and Cabrera and Ramirez won batting titles when there was a top 20 all-time HR season (A-Rod, Batista).
It would sure be good for the game if Hamilton takes these leads past the All-Star break to give the league a story that can attract some marginal fans. We aren't going to see another 30 game winner and the .400 hitter hasn't been challenged in 30+ years outside of Gwynn's .394 in the strike year (94) and George Brett in 1980.
The league also has the Josh Hamilton story in their favor too, as Hamilton's road to this point is well documented. He is probably one of the top 3 most talented players to come through the game since I've been alive. I like to describe his talent this way...Coming out of HS in North Carolina, he was the top pick in the 1999 draft. However, that draft featured a guy that almost every other year would have been the top pick...think about it, Josh Beckett was everything a MLB scout wants. Tall, powerful pitcher, with a 99+ fastball...Tampa didn't even flinch, "We'll, take Hamilton."
On Hamilton's ESPN.com player card, he is currently on pace for a .402/86/195 season. I don't think we will see anything near that, but I would certainly give him a fighting chance to achieve what we haven't seen since 1967...
Trivia Answers
03 AL Batting title - Bill Mueller
03 NL RBI title - Preston Wilson
04 AL HR title - Adrian Beltre
1) Has fast guys that get on base hitting in front of him, Kinsler/Andrus
2) Has veteran power guys hitting behind him to protect him, Beltre/Cruz/Young
3) The team protects his health by giving him ample rest (will probably play in 145~ games)
4) Is a freak
Coming into Sunday, his line for the year was .402/18/41, that is a 30 point lead in AVG, 7 HR lead, and 12 more RBI than another AL player. Wow.
The run of seasons without a triple crown winner has moved to 45 this year, but the likelihood of us seeing another winner has been increasing. The 70's saw Rod Carew, Bill Matlock, Pete Rose, and other singles/doubles hitters win batting titles. Dick Allen made a run in 72 when he won HR and RBI titles but finished 10 points behind Carew for the 3rd leg. Home Run leaders in the 70's were guys that didn't hit for much average, like Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench, Jim Rice, and Reggie Jackson.
The 80's were even tougher to make a run at the triple crown as Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn won 9 of the 20 batting titles, with Willie McGee, Carney Lansford, Willie Wilson and other non-power hitters took up the others. No one made a serious run in the 80's as again sub-.300 hitters like Reggie Jackson, Dale Murphy, Andre Dawson, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, and Tony Armas were the HR champions.
The 90's though, saw a young slugger in 1992 named Gary Sheffield really look like a threat. Sheffield jumped out to a lead in all 3 categories over the summer of 92, and just couldn't hold on to the HR and RBI leads while finishing .330/33/100. Fred McGriff's 35 HR's won the title that year and Sheffield finished 9 RBI behind Darren Daulton for the RBI title.
Again in 1997, we saw the thin air in Colorado produce another threat with Larry Walker. Walker's MVP season produced a league-leading 49 HR's, but his .366 average was .06 behind Tony Gwynn and 130 RBI were 10 behind teammate Andres Galarraga. Walker did go on to win 3 of the next 4 batting titles, but was no where near the HR crown as these seasons were the Sosa/McGwire HR-fest.
The rest of the 2000's saw each category get a sneaky winner, and the trivia fans out there can have some fun with this one...2003 AL batting champ, 2004 AL HR champ, and the 2003 NL RBI champ were all off the radar winners...answers below.
Now for the reasoning on why we are getting closer and closer to seeing another winner. Take a look at the names of the guys that have won batting titles the last 10 years.
Bonds
Ramirez
Cabrera
Hamilton
Holliday
Pujols
Earlier in the 2000's it looked like guys like Todd Helton and Ichiro may go on runs like Boggs and Gwynn, but it was been big power guys that have taken home batting titles.
Pujols led the league in all 3 categories over the span of 2 seasons, Bonds couldn't rack enough at bats with all his intentional walks to get HR's and RBI in 04, and Cabrera and Ramirez won batting titles when there was a top 20 all-time HR season (A-Rod, Batista).
It would sure be good for the game if Hamilton takes these leads past the All-Star break to give the league a story that can attract some marginal fans. We aren't going to see another 30 game winner and the .400 hitter hasn't been challenged in 30+ years outside of Gwynn's .394 in the strike year (94) and George Brett in 1980.
The league also has the Josh Hamilton story in their favor too, as Hamilton's road to this point is well documented. He is probably one of the top 3 most talented players to come through the game since I've been alive. I like to describe his talent this way...Coming out of HS in North Carolina, he was the top pick in the 1999 draft. However, that draft featured a guy that almost every other year would have been the top pick...think about it, Josh Beckett was everything a MLB scout wants. Tall, powerful pitcher, with a 99+ fastball...Tampa didn't even flinch, "We'll, take Hamilton."
On Hamilton's ESPN.com player card, he is currently on pace for a .402/86/195 season. I don't think we will see anything near that, but I would certainly give him a fighting chance to achieve what we haven't seen since 1967...
Trivia Answers
03 AL Batting title - Bill Mueller
03 NL RBI title - Preston Wilson
04 AL HR title - Adrian Beltre
Friday, May 11, 2012
Another early exit fo the Hawks...
I think this blog has an annual May entry, as the Hawks bowed out early in the NBA Playoffs for the 5th straight year. For those that don't know, the Hawks history in the playoffs is not impressive to say the least. This year isn't unlike the others, but before we dive in to what happened and what now, I want to get this out there...not giving excuses, but I am 100% sure that the following things are true:
1) If Paul Pierce made the same move against Joe Johnson that Joe made against him at the end of Game 6, there would have been a foul called.
2) If Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen had been fouled the way Al was at the end of Game 6, a flagrant foul would have been called.
3) If the Celtics had lost Game 6 in Atlanta to lose the series and had a player fouled clearly before an in-bounds pass, we would have had multiple experts telling us the Celtics were screwed and it would have been a topic on PTI, Around the horn, etc, and Bill Simmons would have written a column on how bad the officiating was in the series, specifically Game 6.
But I digress...it was a disappointing series loss, but the problem is traced to Game 2 when the Hawks lost at home to a Boston team that was without Allen/Rondo, and had a double-digit 3rd quarter lead. This team looks outstanding at time, and completely no-shows others. I want to think that this core can do better, but it just doesn't seem likely. That being said...
The only thing management can do for the betterment of the franchise is keep this core intact. Breaking up this team, i.e. trading Josh Smith, will make this team much worse. Believe me, if I thought the Hawks could get multiple players/picks/etc for Smith, I would be for it, but they simply won't get equal value in a trade.
If ASG and Sund think the team needs to trade Smith to improve the team and appease the fan base, the move would go against everything the front office has said the past few years, which is that this core can advance past Round 2. If they break up the team, they will likely go the route of the franchise 15 years ago when Pete Babcock caved in and got rid of Mookie/Smith/Deke and others in order to get younger and more athletic (bringing in Isaiah Rider)....
Truthfully, the way to win titles in the NBA is to get an All-Timer (Kobe, LeBron, Dirk, Duncan) and surround him with solid pieces and hope other stars choose to join him. The easiest way to get one of these guys is to have a Top 5 draft pick, which would likely be coming the Hawks way if they blow up the current core.
The likely scenario: Management renews Larry Drew for another year or two, Sund keeps some of the veterans, brings in some new veterans, adds a 1st round pick, and ASG sells the city on seeing what this team can do when healthy.
The scary scenario: Management panics and trades key pieces for less than equal value and this is a 35 win team next year.
My suggestion: Scenario 1 without renewing Larry Drew. Lets bring in someone that has won before and would have the players respect. Flip Saunders was just fired for not being able to win with an awful Wizards roster, but is just a few years removed from 3 straight conference finals series.
There is a time to blow up a roster, but with the contracts this team has and the current trade market, now is not it for the Hawks. The Falcons sold me on "Hey, it will be better with the same players if we get better coaches", it's time for the ASG to prepare the same pitch.
1) If Paul Pierce made the same move against Joe Johnson that Joe made against him at the end of Game 6, there would have been a foul called.
2) If Rondo/Pierce/Garnett/Allen had been fouled the way Al was at the end of Game 6, a flagrant foul would have been called.
3) If the Celtics had lost Game 6 in Atlanta to lose the series and had a player fouled clearly before an in-bounds pass, we would have had multiple experts telling us the Celtics were screwed and it would have been a topic on PTI, Around the horn, etc, and Bill Simmons would have written a column on how bad the officiating was in the series, specifically Game 6.
But I digress...it was a disappointing series loss, but the problem is traced to Game 2 when the Hawks lost at home to a Boston team that was without Allen/Rondo, and had a double-digit 3rd quarter lead. This team looks outstanding at time, and completely no-shows others. I want to think that this core can do better, but it just doesn't seem likely. That being said...
The only thing management can do for the betterment of the franchise is keep this core intact. Breaking up this team, i.e. trading Josh Smith, will make this team much worse. Believe me, if I thought the Hawks could get multiple players/picks/etc for Smith, I would be for it, but they simply won't get equal value in a trade.
If ASG and Sund think the team needs to trade Smith to improve the team and appease the fan base, the move would go against everything the front office has said the past few years, which is that this core can advance past Round 2. If they break up the team, they will likely go the route of the franchise 15 years ago when Pete Babcock caved in and got rid of Mookie/Smith/Deke and others in order to get younger and more athletic (bringing in Isaiah Rider)....
Truthfully, the way to win titles in the NBA is to get an All-Timer (Kobe, LeBron, Dirk, Duncan) and surround him with solid pieces and hope other stars choose to join him. The easiest way to get one of these guys is to have a Top 5 draft pick, which would likely be coming the Hawks way if they blow up the current core.
The likely scenario: Management renews Larry Drew for another year or two, Sund keeps some of the veterans, brings in some new veterans, adds a 1st round pick, and ASG sells the city on seeing what this team can do when healthy.
The scary scenario: Management panics and trades key pieces for less than equal value and this is a 35 win team next year.
My suggestion: Scenario 1 without renewing Larry Drew. Lets bring in someone that has won before and would have the players respect. Flip Saunders was just fired for not being able to win with an awful Wizards roster, but is just a few years removed from 3 straight conference finals series.
There is a time to blow up a roster, but with the contracts this team has and the current trade market, now is not it for the Hawks. The Falcons sold me on "Hey, it will be better with the same players if we get better coaches", it's time for the ASG to prepare the same pitch.
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