Just minutes after Matt Garza went no-no on Detroit, I started looking at some of the gaudy pitching stats this year. While most of us know there have been some lights-out pitching performances this year, take a look at just how ridiculous it is...
No Hitters in 2010 - 5 (should be 6, Jim Joyce) (Most in a year since 1991)
MLB combined ERA is 4.14 - This number has dropped dramatically from 4.7-4.9 during the peak of the steroids era. In 2000, only Atlanta (4.05) and LAD (4.10) were below 4.14. This year, 14 teams have a team ERA of 4.00 or lower.
In 2007, Jake Peavy was the only starting pitcher with an ERA under 3.00. in 2008, 8 pitchers ended the season under 3 and last year there were 11. In 2010, 17 starting pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 or lower.
There are another 23 relief pitchers with an ERA under 2.00, including 4 that are under 1. Tim Stauffer for SD has a ridiculous 0.31 ERA, Kuo from LA is 0.84, Benoit from TB is 0.81, and Mo Rivera is still getting it done at 0.98.
Even with all this pitching, there is one guy that is clearly the best in the game right now: Josh Johnson
Josh has given up just 24 earned runs in his 20 starts. He has struck out 141 in 134 innings and since May 8, he has been '00 Pedro good.
13 starts with at last 6 innings pitched in each start. The only time he gave up more than 1 run was June 26th, when he went 8 innings, struck out 9, and gave up 2 runs and lost.
No starting pitcher has finished with a lower ERA than Josh's current 1.61 since Doc Gooden in 1985. Most seasons, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Roy Halladay would be in an unreal race for the Cy Young. In 2010, the award is Josh Johnson's, and everyone else is on the outside.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
Braves in great shape...
I don't think the Braves have been in this good of a place in 10+ years. It is time to credit the front office for the work they've done to put the Braves in a great situation to win this year, and for the next several years. Obviously, the Troy Glaus signing has worked out remarkably and he has been a perfect gap-stop for Freddie Freeman. The nucleus of Prado-Heyward-Freeman-McCann-Escobar and the upcoming money that will be available with Wagner and possibly Chipper retiring could give the team great flexibility to add to these guys in the future.
However, the reason the franchise is set up so well for the future is the same reason they were primed for a run in the 90's. Pitching.
Take a look at what the franchise has to work with right now pitching-wise:
Derek Lowe - signed through 2012 for $15 million per year (likely to be dealt this off-season)
Tim Hudson - signed through 2013 for $9 million per year
Peter Moylan - under team control through 2013
Jair Jurrjens - under team control through 2013
Tommy Hanson - under team control through 2014
Kris Medlen - under team control through 2014
Craig Kimbrel - under team control through 2015 (likely closer starting in 2011)
Jonny Venters - under team control through 2015
Mike Minor - recently promoted to AAA Gwinnett and went 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K's in debut. Likely in the big leagues in September.
Julio Teheran - 2.13 ERA in 15 minor league starts and 103 K's in 88 IP. Viewed as a future 1-2 starter.
Luis Vizcaino - 9-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 15 minor league starts and major-league ready by 2012.
Randall Delgado - Currently has a 2.99 ERA and 100+ K's for Myrtle Beach Braves.
So, assume Derek Lowe is dealt for mid-tier prospects this off-season, the rotation for 2011 looks like this:
Hudson
Jurrjens
Hanson
Medlen
Minor
Pretty darn good. Also, the Vizcaino-Teheran-Delgado group can be traded for offense or turned in to relievers until Hudson or others leave.
But as for this year, the team has a good a shot as anybody to win the World Series. As we've seen in the past, strong starting pitching can take you a long way in the playoffs. And I know no one wants to see Hudson/Jurrjens/Hanson/Medlen in a short series.
This could be the start of another championship filled run - let's make the first one 2010.
However, the reason the franchise is set up so well for the future is the same reason they were primed for a run in the 90's. Pitching.
Take a look at what the franchise has to work with right now pitching-wise:
Derek Lowe - signed through 2012 for $15 million per year (likely to be dealt this off-season)
Tim Hudson - signed through 2013 for $9 million per year
Peter Moylan - under team control through 2013
Jair Jurrjens - under team control through 2013
Tommy Hanson - under team control through 2014
Kris Medlen - under team control through 2014
Craig Kimbrel - under team control through 2015 (likely closer starting in 2011)
Jonny Venters - under team control through 2015
Mike Minor - recently promoted to AAA Gwinnett and went 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K's in debut. Likely in the big leagues in September.
Julio Teheran - 2.13 ERA in 15 minor league starts and 103 K's in 88 IP. Viewed as a future 1-2 starter.
Luis Vizcaino - 9-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 15 minor league starts and major-league ready by 2012.
Randall Delgado - Currently has a 2.99 ERA and 100+ K's for Myrtle Beach Braves.
So, assume Derek Lowe is dealt for mid-tier prospects this off-season, the rotation for 2011 looks like this:
Hudson
Jurrjens
Hanson
Medlen
Minor
Pretty darn good. Also, the Vizcaino-Teheran-Delgado group can be traded for offense or turned in to relievers until Hudson or others leave.
But as for this year, the team has a good a shot as anybody to win the World Series. As we've seen in the past, strong starting pitching can take you a long way in the playoffs. And I know no one wants to see Hudson/Jurrjens/Hanson/Medlen in a short series.
This could be the start of another championship filled run - let's make the first one 2010.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Braves, NBA, and World Cup
Its been a month since the Braves took over 1st place in the NL East and they don't appear to be going away any time soon. The All-Star Break is 2 weeks away and the division will likely be a three team race afterwards. Lets take a quick look at what these 3 teams will do to try and upgrade their teams by the trade deadline in order to make their final push.
Atlanta: With Jurrjens returning to the hill tonight, the focus or the Braves will be adding another outfield bat. FoxSports is reporting that Cory Hart, Jose Batista, and Josh Willingham are possible targets. That would give the Braves another big-time power stick in the middle of the order and give them an excellent shot to make a deep playoff run.
Philly: The Phils need to get healthy offensively, but could certainly use depth in their rotation. They will most likely add 2 arms, with one of them being Pedro. The other will be a 3-4 rotation type guy, like Brett Myers or Fausto Carmona.
Mets: The Mets are a little scary because they will probably get either Oswalt or Cliff Lee by the end of the month. A Santana-Lee-Pelphrey rotation is pretty dang good. They have also been getting great starts from Jonathan Niese and RA Dickey. Throw in the return of Beltran in a few weeks and their order looks pretty good too with Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Bay.
The NBA Free Agent frenzy starts tomorrow and will last for several weeks. Paul Pierce is the newest name to throw their name in the free agent circle. Why wouldn't he? So many teams have cleared cap room for max deals (NJ, Washington, Chicago, Miami, NY, etc) and their aren't enough max-players to fill all the holes. Why not get 6 years and 100+ million from some team that doesn't want to look foolish by clearing space for no one?
It will be a mess once the chips start falling. Bosh should follow either James or Wade somewhere and play second fiddle, win titles, and still make 100+ million. It looks more and more like Joe Johnson will sign elsewhere and he needs to find a spot where he can do less ball-handling and more scoring. Chicago seems like a good spot playing alongside Derrick Rose.
The Bulls are the favorite in Vegas to land LBJ, and if he goes there with Bosh they will be an instant favorite in 10-11. Miami is unlikely to land 3 max guys, but could bring in Boozer to play with Wade.
Too many things to predict...It is however, good to see the Hawks have a plan B if JJ leaves with John Salmons.
On to the World Cup...
While the USA's performance in the World Cup was not a disaster, there was a potentially once-in-a-lifetime draw for them to reach the semi's. They were able to avoid all world-powers during the tournament except for dreadful England. I know the US has a lot of young players (Bradley, Jozy, Feilhaber, etc), but there are no guarantees in this tournament. They could get placed in a group of death or lose players to injury in 2014.
Looking back at 0 goals for the 2nd straight World Cup from strikers, what could have been with Charlie Davies healthy??
Everyone with World Cup hangover can watch the US play potential world champion Brazil on August 10th in a friendly and then gear up for the Gold Cup next summer. I know it isn't a big-time tournament around the world, but having the chance to win a trophy away from Mexico is big in my eyes.
Atlanta: With Jurrjens returning to the hill tonight, the focus or the Braves will be adding another outfield bat. FoxSports is reporting that Cory Hart, Jose Batista, and Josh Willingham are possible targets. That would give the Braves another big-time power stick in the middle of the order and give them an excellent shot to make a deep playoff run.
Philly: The Phils need to get healthy offensively, but could certainly use depth in their rotation. They will most likely add 2 arms, with one of them being Pedro. The other will be a 3-4 rotation type guy, like Brett Myers or Fausto Carmona.
Mets: The Mets are a little scary because they will probably get either Oswalt or Cliff Lee by the end of the month. A Santana-Lee-Pelphrey rotation is pretty dang good. They have also been getting great starts from Jonathan Niese and RA Dickey. Throw in the return of Beltran in a few weeks and their order looks pretty good too with Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Bay.
The NBA Free Agent frenzy starts tomorrow and will last for several weeks. Paul Pierce is the newest name to throw their name in the free agent circle. Why wouldn't he? So many teams have cleared cap room for max deals (NJ, Washington, Chicago, Miami, NY, etc) and their aren't enough max-players to fill all the holes. Why not get 6 years and 100+ million from some team that doesn't want to look foolish by clearing space for no one?
It will be a mess once the chips start falling. Bosh should follow either James or Wade somewhere and play second fiddle, win titles, and still make 100+ million. It looks more and more like Joe Johnson will sign elsewhere and he needs to find a spot where he can do less ball-handling and more scoring. Chicago seems like a good spot playing alongside Derrick Rose.
The Bulls are the favorite in Vegas to land LBJ, and if he goes there with Bosh they will be an instant favorite in 10-11. Miami is unlikely to land 3 max guys, but could bring in Boozer to play with Wade.
Too many things to predict...It is however, good to see the Hawks have a plan B if JJ leaves with John Salmons.
On to the World Cup...
While the USA's performance in the World Cup was not a disaster, there was a potentially once-in-a-lifetime draw for them to reach the semi's. They were able to avoid all world-powers during the tournament except for dreadful England. I know the US has a lot of young players (Bradley, Jozy, Feilhaber, etc), but there are no guarantees in this tournament. They could get placed in a group of death or lose players to injury in 2014.
Looking back at 0 goals for the 2nd straight World Cup from strikers, what could have been with Charlie Davies healthy??
Everyone with World Cup hangover can watch the US play potential world champion Brazil on August 10th in a friendly and then gear up for the Gold Cup next summer. I know it isn't a big-time tournament around the world, but having the chance to win a trophy away from Mexico is big in my eyes.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Catching up on some stuff...
It has been a while since the last post here, so lets quickly catch up on a few things...
The NBA Finals wrap up tomorrow with the 1st Finals Game 7 in 5 years. The series has been sloppy and has not had many memorable moments. The Pierce-to-Rondo was after a near collapse and the result of the game probably doesn't change if Rondo misses the layup. The spectacular Shannon Brown alley-oop in Game 6 was with LA up by 20.
An interesting thing to think about is this...If KG doesn't get hurt last year, would tomorrow night be Boston going for a 3-peat? It is certainly possible...
The US-England result was spectacular for the Americans. Gaining a point against the favorite in your group in the opening match is like a win. Now, they need to beat Slovania on Friday and avoid their final game being a win-and-get-help scenario.
The Dempsey goal was not the greatest as Robert Green grossly misplayed the strike. However, Green's blunder is no where near some of the blunders in recent history. Check out this montage for a good laugh..
Conference Expansion...
The Big 10 started the conference expansion melee by courting Nebraska/Mizzou/ND and ended it by officially adding Nebraska. The Pac-10 followed suit and invited a number of other Big 12 schools, but only ended up with Colorado. It now appears they will also invite Utah as its 12th member.
So, in the end, it appears the landscape of college football will not change much in the near future. However, it is very apparent that it will in the next decade or so when the financial gains become greater. The idea of 16 team "super-conferences" is probably a likely outcome of what has started in June 2010. Whether there is finally 4 "super-conference" and the winners become a Final 4 of sorts is still uncertain...
The CWS starts this weekend and has a very strong feel. Look for TCU and Matt Purke, a player discussed several times on here last summer, to make a very strong push...
I once again really enjoyed the MLB Draft, mostly due to the strong Georgia showing once again. Congrats to all the Georgian's who were drafted last week, especially Andrew Robinson of GT, Myles Jaye from Starr's Mill, and Brian Fletcher of Auburn.
The Braves 1st rounder, however, came from Texas. Matt Lipka is an infielder who can play some outfield that possesses tremendous speed. The Braves really liked his sign-ability, speed, and make-up. It appears from what the ATL scouts have said that he was just an athlete they really wanted in their organization...
Good to see we won't have to hear from Lane Kiffin after November for the next couple of years. The USC punishment will hopefully straighten up all of the programs around the country that bend the rules. I can't help but think that even under a near "death penalty" punishment, Kiffin will still add to his list of NCAA infractions...
This week is now #3 in which the Braves have been in 1st place. They are a good home-stand and a small NYM losing streak from creating some ground in the division. It's scary how bad Philly is playing for the last month. When they get healthy, the Braves better have 6+ games on them or it could mean trouble...
The NBA Finals wrap up tomorrow with the 1st Finals Game 7 in 5 years. The series has been sloppy and has not had many memorable moments. The Pierce-to-Rondo was after a near collapse and the result of the game probably doesn't change if Rondo misses the layup. The spectacular Shannon Brown alley-oop in Game 6 was with LA up by 20.
An interesting thing to think about is this...If KG doesn't get hurt last year, would tomorrow night be Boston going for a 3-peat? It is certainly possible...
The US-England result was spectacular for the Americans. Gaining a point against the favorite in your group in the opening match is like a win. Now, they need to beat Slovania on Friday and avoid their final game being a win-and-get-help scenario.
The Dempsey goal was not the greatest as Robert Green grossly misplayed the strike. However, Green's blunder is no where near some of the blunders in recent history. Check out this montage for a good laugh..
Conference Expansion...
The Big 10 started the conference expansion melee by courting Nebraska/Mizzou/ND and ended it by officially adding Nebraska. The Pac-10 followed suit and invited a number of other Big 12 schools, but only ended up with Colorado. It now appears they will also invite Utah as its 12th member.
So, in the end, it appears the landscape of college football will not change much in the near future. However, it is very apparent that it will in the next decade or so when the financial gains become greater. The idea of 16 team "super-conferences" is probably a likely outcome of what has started in June 2010. Whether there is finally 4 "super-conference" and the winners become a Final 4 of sorts is still uncertain...
The CWS starts this weekend and has a very strong feel. Look for TCU and Matt Purke, a player discussed several times on here last summer, to make a very strong push...
I once again really enjoyed the MLB Draft, mostly due to the strong Georgia showing once again. Congrats to all the Georgian's who were drafted last week, especially Andrew Robinson of GT, Myles Jaye from Starr's Mill, and Brian Fletcher of Auburn.
The Braves 1st rounder, however, came from Texas. Matt Lipka is an infielder who can play some outfield that possesses tremendous speed. The Braves really liked his sign-ability, speed, and make-up. It appears from what the ATL scouts have said that he was just an athlete they really wanted in their organization...
Good to see we won't have to hear from Lane Kiffin after November for the next couple of years. The USC punishment will hopefully straighten up all of the programs around the country that bend the rules. I can't help but think that even under a near "death penalty" punishment, Kiffin will still add to his list of NCAA infractions...
This week is now #3 in which the Braves have been in 1st place. They are a good home-stand and a small NYM losing streak from creating some ground in the division. It's scary how bad Philly is playing for the last month. When they get healthy, the Braves better have 6+ games on them or it could mean trouble...
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Lots to discuss...
What a month for the Braves. They start off in last place, fresh off a 9 game losing streak and now on June 2nd, they are 1.5 games up in the NL East. Troy Glaus, Martin Prado, and Jason Heyward carried the offense and the pitching staff did a tremendous job. If Jurrjens comes back this month and the Chipper/McCann duo heats up, this team could take 1st place into the All-Star Break.
Falcons workouts start next month as well. If they can stay healthy, this team has a good shot at being a SB contender. I think TD has done well so far in free agency and the draft and more pieces are likely still to come.
Also, when June rolls around the CFB pre-season magazines start showing up. I've had a chance to see a couple and am going to post, as of right now, what I think the final Top 25 poll will look like heading into bowl season...
1. Ohio State (12-0) - No Texas/USC on the schedule this year and Wisconsin/Iowa are only potential stumbling blocks on the road. Home schedule includes Miami/PSU/Michigan, but with so many key guys back, I think OSU makes it through 12-0
2. Boise State (12-0) - Pretty much the entire 2009 team is back and they face a tough road game in Week 1 vs VT and also play Oregon State. An experienced team that has shown they can go on the road and beat good teams early in the year. VT will have 9 new starters on defense and will have a very tough, early task against Boise.
3. Nebraska (12-1) - Defense will again be a major strength for the Huskers. Despite losing Suh, the D has a lot of experienced players back and should stay in the top 10 nationally in scoring D and total D. The offense needs to improve from last year, but with all upper-class-men that have been to Big 12 CG's and had success, they should improve off of last years 25.1 ppg. They slip up once in the regular season and then beat OU in the Big 12 CG.
4. Alabama (11-2) - Nick Saban has done such a good job assembling talent at Bama that even with all the defensive losses, they should still be a top 10 defense. Marcell Dareus didn't start last year, but may be a top 10 pick in the 2011 draft. Dre Kirkpatrick and BJ Scott in the secondary are tremendously talented. They will be inexperienced and face a real tough schedule with the bulls-eye. Still the SEC favorites in my book, though.
5. TCU (12-0) - The Frogs are likely to be better than 2009, but will remain behind unbeaten Boise due to last seasons Fiesta Bowl. The 5th ranked offense nationally has all the key components back and should push 40 ppg this year. The Jerry Hughes loss will hurt on D, but 8 returning starters are back from a D that only allowed 12.8 ppg in 09.
6. Oklahoma (11-2) - The Sooners were decimated by injuries in 09 and are motivated to put last season behind them. Look for OU to beat Texas after losing 4 of the last 5 and advance to the Big 12 CG. Landry Jones is a super-sneaky Heisman pick.
7. Iowa (11-1) - The Hawkeyes are loaded on D and have one of the best front 7's in the country. Ricky Stanzi needs to stay healthy and limit his INT's, but the talent at RB and WR is there for the 11/20 OSU @ Iowa game to be one of 2010's biggest.
8. Florida (10-2) - The Gators will be young this year but still have a lot of talent. Voters will likely start them higher than #8 but keep them in the top 10 despite 2 losses. Brantley will immediately be a top 3 QB in the SEC, but the D needs to show it can produce without Charlie Strong.
9. Virginia Tech (10-2) - VT has the tough opener mentioned above, but their young D will be seasoned by November when they go to Chapel Hill and Miami back-to-back weeks. Even if they don't sweep those 2 games, the rest of the schedule sets up well enough that another 10 win regular season is likely. Taylor and the RB combo of Williams/Evans will make the Hokie offense better than 09.
10. Texas (10-2) - Texas still has enough talent to win 10 games, even with a ton of losses to graduation and the NFL. The secondary could be the best Texas has had in a while, even with the loss of Earl Thomas.
11. North Carolina (10-2) - It's difficult to put a team this high when they have yet to win a bowl game with their current coach. But Butch Davis has done it before, and there are NFL players all over the defense. Robert Quinn, Marvin Austin, Quan Sturdivant, and Kendric Burney are all 1st-3rd round picks. Several others will likely end up on NFL teams. The question is the offense, led by the erratic TJ Yates. If the offense can improve from their 23.8 ppg in 09, this team could be in the hunt for a BCS bowl.
12. Wisconsin (10-2) - The Badgers will have a typical Wisconsin team in 2010. Stud offensive lineman, a steady QB, and a good running game. The defense has some holes to plug, but outside of the October OSU/at Iowa back-to-back stretch, the schedule isn't too difficult.
13. Auburn (9-3) - The Tigers have 13 senior starters and should be in position to win now in 2010. The schedule is about as set-up as you can hope for in the SEC, with the only tough road game being the finale in Tuscaloosa. If they can beat South Carolina and go on the road and win vs UK and MSU, the Iron Bowl could be for the SEC West.
14. Georgia (9-3) - Lots of "if's" on D for the Dawgs, but the offense has a ton of potential. They need Aaron Murray to be a better version of Joe Cox and not have another rash of injuries on the offensive line. If they survive the South Carolina/Arkansas early September back-to-back, the Florida game will likely be for the SEC East title.
15. Oregon (9-3) - This Oregon team had a ton of potential, but there are too many question marks for Chip Kelly's program. The Masoli suspension was another black eye (no pun intended), but this team is loaded with players. It's tough to predict 10-11 wins though with the current situation of the program.
16. USC (9-3) - Tons of players in LA will give Lane Kiffin a good shot at 9-10 wins in year 1. The reason success is likely in 2010 is in large part due to Monte Kiffin taking over the defense. The D should improve dramatically from last year, where they gave up 55, 47, and 36 points in 3 different Pac-10 games.
17. Pittsburgh (9-3) - The Panthers should get their 1st Big East title under Dave Wannstedt in 2010. Dion Lewis returns and will likely get 1500+ yards again.
18. Florida State (9-3) - A healthy Christian Ponder will mean a spot in the ACCCG for the Seminoles. The offensive line as a whole returns and play-maker Greg Reid returns in the secondary.
19. Arkansas (8-4) - Ryan Mallet is the best QB in the SEC and potentially a top 10 NFL pick. The weapons he has on offense are why Bobby Petrino came to Fayetteville. The defense is still the weak spot and has to improve if they are going to start beating the elite SEC teams.
20. Stanford (8-4) - Like Arkansas, Stanford has a future NFL quarterback and tons of questions on defense. The Cardinal finished 09 on a good run and should turn that into a top 3 spot in the conference in 2010.
21. West Virginia (9-3) - WVU has the best spot to knock Pitt out of a BCS game in 2010. Noel Devine is a stud at RB, and the 31st ranked scoring D in the country returns 10 starters. We should get a read on where the Mountaineers are on 9/25 when they travel to LSU.
22. Connecticut (9-3) - The Huskies were on a great run at the end of 09 and have a lot of momentum heading into the season. Keeping Randy Edsall was the key to keeping the run of success at UConn possible in 2010.
23. Texas Tech (8-4) - Tommy Tuberville knew what he was doing when he took the job in Lubbock. He claims they will still run the spread offense, but his experience running it at Auburn was a disaster. I think he will have more success at TT and end up in a good bowl game in year 1.
24. Georgia Tech (8-4) Another good season in year 3 for Paul Johnson is likely. Josh Nesbitt returns and is in year 3 running the triple option offense and Anthony Allen is the next 1,000 yard back. The defense still has holes, but Al Groh should help make some improvements. The schedule poses 5 tough road games, including back-to-back trips to Lawrence, KS and Chapel Hill, NC in September. The team also travels to Clemson, VT, and UGA.
25. LSU (8-4) - In what is likely the final year for Les Miles in Baton Rouge, the Tigers have a very tough road ahead of them. They will need to improve on offense and stay healthy to have a shot at earning a top 3 spot in the SEC West.
Falcons workouts start next month as well. If they can stay healthy, this team has a good shot at being a SB contender. I think TD has done well so far in free agency and the draft and more pieces are likely still to come.
Also, when June rolls around the CFB pre-season magazines start showing up. I've had a chance to see a couple and am going to post, as of right now, what I think the final Top 25 poll will look like heading into bowl season...
1. Ohio State (12-0) - No Texas/USC on the schedule this year and Wisconsin/Iowa are only potential stumbling blocks on the road. Home schedule includes Miami/PSU/Michigan, but with so many key guys back, I think OSU makes it through 12-0
2. Boise State (12-0) - Pretty much the entire 2009 team is back and they face a tough road game in Week 1 vs VT and also play Oregon State. An experienced team that has shown they can go on the road and beat good teams early in the year. VT will have 9 new starters on defense and will have a very tough, early task against Boise.
3. Nebraska (12-1) - Defense will again be a major strength for the Huskers. Despite losing Suh, the D has a lot of experienced players back and should stay in the top 10 nationally in scoring D and total D. The offense needs to improve from last year, but with all upper-class-men that have been to Big 12 CG's and had success, they should improve off of last years 25.1 ppg. They slip up once in the regular season and then beat OU in the Big 12 CG.
4. Alabama (11-2) - Nick Saban has done such a good job assembling talent at Bama that even with all the defensive losses, they should still be a top 10 defense. Marcell Dareus didn't start last year, but may be a top 10 pick in the 2011 draft. Dre Kirkpatrick and BJ Scott in the secondary are tremendously talented. They will be inexperienced and face a real tough schedule with the bulls-eye. Still the SEC favorites in my book, though.
5. TCU (12-0) - The Frogs are likely to be better than 2009, but will remain behind unbeaten Boise due to last seasons Fiesta Bowl. The 5th ranked offense nationally has all the key components back and should push 40 ppg this year. The Jerry Hughes loss will hurt on D, but 8 returning starters are back from a D that only allowed 12.8 ppg in 09.
6. Oklahoma (11-2) - The Sooners were decimated by injuries in 09 and are motivated to put last season behind them. Look for OU to beat Texas after losing 4 of the last 5 and advance to the Big 12 CG. Landry Jones is a super-sneaky Heisman pick.
7. Iowa (11-1) - The Hawkeyes are loaded on D and have one of the best front 7's in the country. Ricky Stanzi needs to stay healthy and limit his INT's, but the talent at RB and WR is there for the 11/20 OSU @ Iowa game to be one of 2010's biggest.
8. Florida (10-2) - The Gators will be young this year but still have a lot of talent. Voters will likely start them higher than #8 but keep them in the top 10 despite 2 losses. Brantley will immediately be a top 3 QB in the SEC, but the D needs to show it can produce without Charlie Strong.
9. Virginia Tech (10-2) - VT has the tough opener mentioned above, but their young D will be seasoned by November when they go to Chapel Hill and Miami back-to-back weeks. Even if they don't sweep those 2 games, the rest of the schedule sets up well enough that another 10 win regular season is likely. Taylor and the RB combo of Williams/Evans will make the Hokie offense better than 09.
10. Texas (10-2) - Texas still has enough talent to win 10 games, even with a ton of losses to graduation and the NFL. The secondary could be the best Texas has had in a while, even with the loss of Earl Thomas.
11. North Carolina (10-2) - It's difficult to put a team this high when they have yet to win a bowl game with their current coach. But Butch Davis has done it before, and there are NFL players all over the defense. Robert Quinn, Marvin Austin, Quan Sturdivant, and Kendric Burney are all 1st-3rd round picks. Several others will likely end up on NFL teams. The question is the offense, led by the erratic TJ Yates. If the offense can improve from their 23.8 ppg in 09, this team could be in the hunt for a BCS bowl.
12. Wisconsin (10-2) - The Badgers will have a typical Wisconsin team in 2010. Stud offensive lineman, a steady QB, and a good running game. The defense has some holes to plug, but outside of the October OSU/at Iowa back-to-back stretch, the schedule isn't too difficult.
13. Auburn (9-3) - The Tigers have 13 senior starters and should be in position to win now in 2010. The schedule is about as set-up as you can hope for in the SEC, with the only tough road game being the finale in Tuscaloosa. If they can beat South Carolina and go on the road and win vs UK and MSU, the Iron Bowl could be for the SEC West.
14. Georgia (9-3) - Lots of "if's" on D for the Dawgs, but the offense has a ton of potential. They need Aaron Murray to be a better version of Joe Cox and not have another rash of injuries on the offensive line. If they survive the South Carolina/Arkansas early September back-to-back, the Florida game will likely be for the SEC East title.
15. Oregon (9-3) - This Oregon team had a ton of potential, but there are too many question marks for Chip Kelly's program. The Masoli suspension was another black eye (no pun intended), but this team is loaded with players. It's tough to predict 10-11 wins though with the current situation of the program.
16. USC (9-3) - Tons of players in LA will give Lane Kiffin a good shot at 9-10 wins in year 1. The reason success is likely in 2010 is in large part due to Monte Kiffin taking over the defense. The D should improve dramatically from last year, where they gave up 55, 47, and 36 points in 3 different Pac-10 games.
17. Pittsburgh (9-3) - The Panthers should get their 1st Big East title under Dave Wannstedt in 2010. Dion Lewis returns and will likely get 1500+ yards again.
18. Florida State (9-3) - A healthy Christian Ponder will mean a spot in the ACCCG for the Seminoles. The offensive line as a whole returns and play-maker Greg Reid returns in the secondary.
19. Arkansas (8-4) - Ryan Mallet is the best QB in the SEC and potentially a top 10 NFL pick. The weapons he has on offense are why Bobby Petrino came to Fayetteville. The defense is still the weak spot and has to improve if they are going to start beating the elite SEC teams.
20. Stanford (8-4) - Like Arkansas, Stanford has a future NFL quarterback and tons of questions on defense. The Cardinal finished 09 on a good run and should turn that into a top 3 spot in the conference in 2010.
21. West Virginia (9-3) - WVU has the best spot to knock Pitt out of a BCS game in 2010. Noel Devine is a stud at RB, and the 31st ranked scoring D in the country returns 10 starters. We should get a read on where the Mountaineers are on 9/25 when they travel to LSU.
22. Connecticut (9-3) - The Huskies were on a great run at the end of 09 and have a lot of momentum heading into the season. Keeping Randy Edsall was the key to keeping the run of success at UConn possible in 2010.
23. Texas Tech (8-4) - Tommy Tuberville knew what he was doing when he took the job in Lubbock. He claims they will still run the spread offense, but his experience running it at Auburn was a disaster. I think he will have more success at TT and end up in a good bowl game in year 1.
24. Georgia Tech (8-4) Another good season in year 3 for Paul Johnson is likely. Josh Nesbitt returns and is in year 3 running the triple option offense and Anthony Allen is the next 1,000 yard back. The defense still has holes, but Al Groh should help make some improvements. The schedule poses 5 tough road games, including back-to-back trips to Lawrence, KS and Chapel Hill, NC in September. The team also travels to Clemson, VT, and UGA.
25. LSU (8-4) - In what is likely the final year for Les Miles in Baton Rouge, the Tigers have a very tough road ahead of them. They will need to improve on offense and stay healthy to have a shot at earning a top 3 spot in the SEC West.
Monday, May 31, 2010
What’s Chipper going to do?
There was a little bit of Chipper Jones retirement talk this off-season, and his batting average and power numbers have probably not done enough to silence it. Chip is doing a lot of the talking himself, saying he may give it up if he didn’t see some improvement from the end of 2009. He told a radio station in Miami this week that he has 4 kids and a wife, and things like retirement were certainly on his mind.
While he is still a threat in the 3-hole and draws many walks due to pitchers pitching around him, I think the lack of run production is bothering him. I don’t think he feels like he is contributing what he should be and the OBP may not be enough. How low has Chip sunk since the end of last year?
Here are his 2010 numbers heading into the weekend:
.227 AVG – 2 HR – 15 RBI - .387 OBP - .348 SLG
The real drop off from the Chipper we know is the AVG and SLG due to the lack of power. Will he ever get it back? Well, we know now that he has several nagging injuries that aren’t likely to ever go away during his playing days.
If you go back to August 16th of last year, his final 138 at bats of the 2009 season produced the following numbers:
.173 AVG - 3 HR - 18 RBI
That’s an even .200 AVG with 5 HR and 33 RBI in his last 270 at bats, or about half a season. The walks are still there, even last August/September, but the lack of power and run production is astounding. The .348 slugging this season ranks Chipper 146th in all MLB, only 34 spots ahead of the last-place guy, Gordon Beckham (.239). He is also just behind homer-less Nyjer Morgan of the Nationals (.358).
I’m not saying the Braves don’t need him in the lineup anymore. I’m not saying he needs to be moved from the 3-hole. It just looks like from what Chip has been saying since he started to decline at the end of last summer (he was hitting .304-15-54 on August 15th), that this may be it for the 1990 #1 overall pick out of The Bolles School.
However, a big second half and a playoff birth may inspire him to come back in 2011 for a going-away tour. The $13 million he is owed would help make that decision a little easier…
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Hawks look-back...
Today, we are going to take an in-depth look at how the Hawks screwed up their re-building process. Rather than simply say, “How can you pass on Chris Paul?” we are going to look at the rosters and examine how absurd some of Billy Knight’s decisions were.
My 1st season having season tickets was 2004-2005, and we are going to start there. The organization realized going into this season that the Shareef-Terry-Crawford-Jackson-Henderson-Sura-Dickau nucleus was not headed in the right direction. So, they blew it up and brought in guys that are “Billy Knight” guys (the ideal height, 6’8).
The 2004-2005 team has a new feel to it. The team is led in scoring by 6’9 Al Harrington and 6’8 Antoine Walker. Both are solid NBA scorers at this point in their careers and can play both forward spots. The team also has 2 1st round picks that season that are in the rotation, Josh Smith (6’9) and Josh Childress (6’8). They also have a young forward in Boris Diaw (6’8), who has shown flashes but still is a little raw. This team has 2 clear weaknesses, no point guard and no center.
Here are the “point guards” that played on the 2004-2005 team at some point:
Tyronn Lue
Tony Delk
Royal Ivey
Kenny Anderson
And, here are the centers:
Obinna Ekezie
Predrag Drobnjak
Jason Collier (RIP)
Jelani McCoy
Michael Stewart
Clearly, there is a drastic need to upgrade these two positions ASAP. Knight gets the idea during the season that he should trade Walker. Excellent choice! Harrington is younger and has more upside and you have 3 other young players that are forwards that need playing time. In fact, Knight does pretty well with this trade getting expiring contracts (Gugliotta, Payton, Stewart) and a 2006 1st Round pick.
So, heading into the off-season after a 13-69 record, Knight has a young core of forwards that have a lot of upside, cap space, and the #2 pick in the draft.
The draft came first in June of 2005 and with the #2 pick Knight selected 6’8 Marvin Williams. With a core of Harrington, Diaw, Smith, and Childress, he took another 6’8 guy? There was certainly not a way to fix the issues at center unless Milwaukee passed on Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum and Channing Frye were also lottery picks that year, but not worthy of a #2 pick. But why not fix the point guard issue? I wanted Deron Williams with the pick and most fans cry about not getting Chris Paul, but even Ray Felton would have been more forgivable than another forward.
Strike 1.
Billy then surveys the free-agent market and not surprisingly focuses on a guy that is 6’8 in Joe Johnson. Since Joe is restricted, Billy works out a sign-and-trade deal with Phoenix where the Suns get the 2006 1st round pick he acquired for Walker, a 2008 1st Round pick, and Diaw. A lot to give up, but in the state of the Hawks franchise, they weren’t in a position to swing-and-miss on a free agent. Essentially, they didn’t have enough chips to call the Suns bluff.
Well, there goes the cap space. I liked the transaction because it was the only way to get someone who had the potential to be a top 25 player in the league via free agency.
Knight uses some more of his available cap space to sign ZaZa Pachulia to a 4 year deal that worked out quite well also.
Now it is the 2005-2006 season and the depth chart looks a little better (considering there is still no PG or C)
Ivey/Lue/Delk
Johnson/Stoudemire
Harrington/Childress
Smith/Batista
Pachulia/Edwards
This team goes 26-56 and shows a little bit of life at times. Joe starts every game and averages 20+ points and 6.5 assists per game. Smith averages 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and almost 3 blocks per game. Even 19 year old Marvin averaged 8.5 points and 5 rebounds a game.
However, the 2006 off-season is even more of a disaster than 2005. With the #5 pick, the Hawks took 6’9 Sheldon Williams. What made this worse is that EVERYONE knew that was the pick and EVERYONE hated it. Knight figured that he could upgrade his point guard and center situation in free agency and couldn’t pass on a 6’9 forward.
Point Guard FA acquisition: Speedy Claxton
Center FA acquisition: Lorenzen Wright
Strike 2.
Maybe the worst free agent signings in history. Four years and $25 million were paid to Speedy for his 44 games of service as a Hawk.
Sheldon became the 2nd best player in his marriage and has become a career backup worth 5-8 so-so minutes per game. Meanwhile, 2007 ROY and 3-time all-star Brandon Roy went with the next pick.
Strike 3.
And to rub things in even more with the point guard debacle, the pick Knight acquired in the Walker trade that was sent to Phoenix was used to draft Rajon Rondo in that same draft.
Most know the story of the last 3 seasons from this point. Horford and Law are drafted in 2007 and the team later acquired Mike Bibby and made the playoffs that year. Then, after consecutive winning seasons and quick 2nd round playoff exits, the team is now at another crossroads.
However, this isn’t the time to rebuild again. The way the salary cap is set up, you can’t let Joe leave and sign anything close in return. Now is the time to become creative and give yourself a chance to compete again in 2010-2011. There is no cap space to lure free agents and no top 5 pick to acquire Evan Turner, John Wall, or Derrick Favors.
The league is set up for teams to re-sign and keep its good players. Either sign-and-trade Joe or pay the money to keep him. Smith and Williams are extended and Al’s is on the way. There is unlikely to be an impact rookie at #24 in the draft, but go find some depth.
Let’s see what Rick Sund does. If the 2010 off-season ends with his “Strike 1,” we may be in for another run of futility. And I don’t want to be rooting for ping-pong balls any time soon…
My 1st season having season tickets was 2004-2005, and we are going to start there. The organization realized going into this season that the Shareef-Terry-Crawford-Jackson-Henderson-Sura-Dickau nucleus was not headed in the right direction. So, they blew it up and brought in guys that are “Billy Knight” guys (the ideal height, 6’8).
The 2004-2005 team has a new feel to it. The team is led in scoring by 6’9 Al Harrington and 6’8 Antoine Walker. Both are solid NBA scorers at this point in their careers and can play both forward spots. The team also has 2 1st round picks that season that are in the rotation, Josh Smith (6’9) and Josh Childress (6’8). They also have a young forward in Boris Diaw (6’8), who has shown flashes but still is a little raw. This team has 2 clear weaknesses, no point guard and no center.
Here are the “point guards” that played on the 2004-2005 team at some point:
Tyronn Lue
Tony Delk
Royal Ivey
Kenny Anderson
And, here are the centers:
Obinna Ekezie
Predrag Drobnjak
Jason Collier (RIP)
Jelani McCoy
Michael Stewart
Clearly, there is a drastic need to upgrade these two positions ASAP. Knight gets the idea during the season that he should trade Walker. Excellent choice! Harrington is younger and has more upside and you have 3 other young players that are forwards that need playing time. In fact, Knight does pretty well with this trade getting expiring contracts (Gugliotta, Payton, Stewart) and a 2006 1st Round pick.
So, heading into the off-season after a 13-69 record, Knight has a young core of forwards that have a lot of upside, cap space, and the #2 pick in the draft.
The draft came first in June of 2005 and with the #2 pick Knight selected 6’8 Marvin Williams. With a core of Harrington, Diaw, Smith, and Childress, he took another 6’8 guy? There was certainly not a way to fix the issues at center unless Milwaukee passed on Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum and Channing Frye were also lottery picks that year, but not worthy of a #2 pick. But why not fix the point guard issue? I wanted Deron Williams with the pick and most fans cry about not getting Chris Paul, but even Ray Felton would have been more forgivable than another forward.
Strike 1.
Billy then surveys the free-agent market and not surprisingly focuses on a guy that is 6’8 in Joe Johnson. Since Joe is restricted, Billy works out a sign-and-trade deal with Phoenix where the Suns get the 2006 1st round pick he acquired for Walker, a 2008 1st Round pick, and Diaw. A lot to give up, but in the state of the Hawks franchise, they weren’t in a position to swing-and-miss on a free agent. Essentially, they didn’t have enough chips to call the Suns bluff.
Well, there goes the cap space. I liked the transaction because it was the only way to get someone who had the potential to be a top 25 player in the league via free agency.
Knight uses some more of his available cap space to sign ZaZa Pachulia to a 4 year deal that worked out quite well also.
Now it is the 2005-2006 season and the depth chart looks a little better (considering there is still no PG or C)
Ivey/Lue/Delk
Johnson/Stoudemire
Harrington/Childress
Smith/Batista
Pachulia/Edwards
This team goes 26-56 and shows a little bit of life at times. Joe starts every game and averages 20+ points and 6.5 assists per game. Smith averages 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and almost 3 blocks per game. Even 19 year old Marvin averaged 8.5 points and 5 rebounds a game.
However, the 2006 off-season is even more of a disaster than 2005. With the #5 pick, the Hawks took 6’9 Sheldon Williams. What made this worse is that EVERYONE knew that was the pick and EVERYONE hated it. Knight figured that he could upgrade his point guard and center situation in free agency and couldn’t pass on a 6’9 forward.
Point Guard FA acquisition: Speedy Claxton
Center FA acquisition: Lorenzen Wright
Strike 2.
Maybe the worst free agent signings in history. Four years and $25 million were paid to Speedy for his 44 games of service as a Hawk.
Sheldon became the 2nd best player in his marriage and has become a career backup worth 5-8 so-so minutes per game. Meanwhile, 2007 ROY and 3-time all-star Brandon Roy went with the next pick.
Strike 3.
And to rub things in even more with the point guard debacle, the pick Knight acquired in the Walker trade that was sent to Phoenix was used to draft Rajon Rondo in that same draft.
Most know the story of the last 3 seasons from this point. Horford and Law are drafted in 2007 and the team later acquired Mike Bibby and made the playoffs that year. Then, after consecutive winning seasons and quick 2nd round playoff exits, the team is now at another crossroads.
However, this isn’t the time to rebuild again. The way the salary cap is set up, you can’t let Joe leave and sign anything close in return. Now is the time to become creative and give yourself a chance to compete again in 2010-2011. There is no cap space to lure free agents and no top 5 pick to acquire Evan Turner, John Wall, or Derrick Favors.
The league is set up for teams to re-sign and keep its good players. Either sign-and-trade Joe or pay the money to keep him. Smith and Williams are extended and Al’s is on the way. There is unlikely to be an impact rookie at #24 in the draft, but go find some depth.
Let’s see what Rick Sund does. If the 2010 off-season ends with his “Strike 1,” we may be in for another run of futility. And I don’t want to be rooting for ping-pong balls any time soon…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)