Wednesday, February 23, 2011

College Hoops Update

It’s March next week, so let’s take a look at the 2 most popular topics in College Hoops this time of year: Number 1 seeds and bubble teams.

The #1 seeds are not as clear cut as they have been in the past. Kansas, with their #1 RPI should be a lock, even if they slip up at Mizzou and don’t win the Big 12 tournament. Ohio State finishes with 3 of their last 4 at home and could seal a #1 seed by avenging their loss to Wisconsin on March 6th.

If Duke doesn’t slip up again, or if their only loss is @ UNC should be in line for the 3rd #1 seed. After that, Pitt and Texas are in a battle to gain the final #1 seed. If Pitt wins their last 4 (vs WV/Nova and @ USF/L’Ville, they will have a pretty strong case. If they lose 1, but win the Big East tournament, they have just as strong a case. Texas has a good chance to finish strong as well, but Iowa St/Colorado/Baylor all having an RPI outside of the top 75 will damage their rating a bit. A Big 12 tournament win should give Texas a #1 seed.

As for bubble teams, it is a bit different this year with 68 bids. There are teams out there like Baylor (RPI of 79, UAB (19-7, but without a top 50 RPI win), Colorado State (17-8 with a 47 RPI), and Richmond (21-7 with their only top 50 win being against Purdue) that would not even be mentioned in previous years.

I think there are several teams that have come up with big wins lately and are breathing easier right now like Georgia, Kansas State, Utah State, and Cincinnati. But, several other teams need a big win the next 2 weeks to solidify their bid:

1) Michigan State (14-11) RPI 43: Must beat Purdue at home and either at Michigan or Minnesota to finish 17-12 (10-8) and feel comfortable

2) Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s – If the winner of their matchup Thursday then loses in the conference final in a 3rd meeting, both have a chance. But, the loser of the game this week will certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in.

3) Colonial Conference: George Mason is in as of now, and in easily, but VCU and ODU have at-large aspirations as well. VCU has been struggling, but won at Wichita Friday and has wins over UCLA and ODU. ODU has an excellent shot at an at-large with wins over Xavier, Dayton, George Mason, and VCU.

4) Florida State – The ACC has to get more than 2 bids, right? At 9-3 in the ACC, but playing now without best player Chris Singleton, the Seminoles really need to win 3 of their last 4, especially the home game vs UNC. Their top 50 wins are Duke (#6) and BC (#45) and they desperately need the quality win over UNC (#11) to impress the panel.

5) Minnesota – The Gophers look solid right now with wins over UNC, WVU, and Purdue, but after losing 4 of 5 they need to finish strong. Winning their last 3 home games vs MSU, Michigan, and Penn State will put them in easily.

6) Butler – Butler is very intriguing with an RPI of 49 and wins over Florida State and Cleveland State. Their case is hurt by recent losses to Youngstown St (RPI #273) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#107). The Horizon could have been a 2 bid league if Cleveland State had beaten ODU this past weekend, but now it looks like Butler/Cleveland State will need to win the conference tourney to feel comfortable at all.

7) Boston College – I think Boston College is in big trouble. They are only 6-10 versus the RPI top 100, and 2 of the wins are against #93 Maryland. Their #45 RPI is based a lot on their tough schedule, and the Texas A&M win is pretty solid. I think they need to win their last 2 home games (Miami/Wake) and win at least 1 of their 2 remaining road games (UVA/VT) plus win at least 1 ACC tourney game to have a shot.

8) Memphis/UTEP/Southern Miss/UAB – I think that C-USA can get 2 bids at most this year. There is no way all 4 of these teams get in, as all have bad losses and their only quality wins are against each other. Whoever finishes strong and plays well in the conference tourney will get the spots.

9) Marquette – Needs more quality wins (Cuse, WVU, ND) because they beat no one out of conference.

Projections as of 2/22

1) Ohio State, Pitt, Kansas, Duke
2) San Diego State, Texas, Georgetown, Purdue
3) BYU, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Florida
4) Notre Dame, Kentucky, UNC, Arizona
5) St. Johns, Vanderbilt, UConn, Xavier
6) Louisville, Villanova, Missouri, George Mason
7) Syracuse, Missouri West Virginia, UCLA
8) Temple, Washington, Texas A&M, Illinois
9) Tennessee, UNLV, Kansas St, Cincinnati
10) Georgia, Utah St, Old Dominion, Alabama
11) Minnesota, Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga
12) Boston College/UAB, Florida State/Colorado St, Cleveland State, St Mary’s
13) Missouri State, Coastal Carolina, Charleston, Oakland
14) Harvard, Fairfield, Bucknell, Belmont
15) Long Beach State, Long Island, Miami (OH), Vermont
16) Montana, Morehead State, FAU/Bethune-Cookman, McNeese St/Texas Southern

The importance of Al Horford

The value Al Horford has to the Atlanta Hawks cannot be overstated. While Josh Smith has remarkable athleticism, shot blocking ability, and scoring ability and Joe Johnson is the so-called #1 option, Al Horford is the Hawks MVP.

It is no coincidence that the 2 most embarrassing losses on the season (100-59 loss to NO and 117-83 loss to PHI) came in games where Al did not suit up. He is a leader on the court, is the only player on the team that winning seems like it means a lot to him, and he can score when given opportunities.

For the year, Al is averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. That puts Al 6th in the league in rebounding, but only 47th in scoring; the latter number needs to go up dramatically, and soon. This can be done by simply giving Al more chances to score in the half–court set. This team settles for too many jumpers and dribble drives when Big Al has either a miss-match or good position on his defender.

A player with a 57% field goal percentage needs more than 12.2 shots per game. The players just above Al in rebounds per game have the following shots per game averages for the season:

Player PPG RPG Shots PG
K.Love 21.1 15.5 14.6
D.Howard 22.8 13.8 13.8
Z.Randolph 20.0 13.1 16.5
B.Griffin 22.9 12.5 17.0
P.Gasol 18.7 10.4 13.6

That is over 2 shots per game for all of the above players, except Gasol, who is the only guy on the list (including Horford) with a player on his team that has more than 16.5 shots per game (Bryant, 19.5).

The point is, Al needs more attention. He is not a physical specimen like D3, a long-range threat like Love, or a freak athlete like Griffin, but he is a very capable scorer that needs to push his ppg up in the high teens-low 20’s like the above players. This season, Al has played in 10 games where he has attempted fewer than 10 shots. Although the team is 5-5 in those games, 3 of the 5 were road games against the NBA’s elite (LAL, BOS, DAL). Those are the playoff-type games that Al needs to see more of the ball. The other 2 losses were against Milwaukee, where Al was not in foul trouble and went 12-15 combined from the field.

He may be playing out of position as a center, but he is a 2-time All-Star when playing that position. Lets feed him the rock a little more and see if that helps open up the offense. And getting a point guard by the deadline wouldn’t hurt either…

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Moving on...

Well, it's time to move on from the NFL season and re-group. I took the Falcons loss pretty hard, and it has been tough to discuss or watch anything NFL related since. I think there are some things the team can do this off-season that would give the team another chance at making a strong run in 2011. Here are the needs in no particular order:

1) Offensive Tackle
2) Running Back
3) Slot Receiver
4) Linebacker
5) Defensive End
6) Corner

I believe the most pressing need is at defensive end. Biermann is serviceable and makes plays and Abe can still be good, but more is needed here. Chauncey Davis is fine as a back-up, but someone needs to come in and make a difference as a consistent pass rusher. This will help the secondary, which can get better, but certainly was not the sole reason behind the GB loss. Shaun Ellis, Charles Johnson, and others are free agents, but a guy like Cameron Heyward from OSU is also intriguing in the draft. Look at what Julius Peppers did for the Bears defense this season, a solid pass rush covers up other weaknesses.

Once this piece is added, depth at linebacker and corner can be met through free agency and the draft. Thomas Dimitroff has brought in a big-name free agent every off-season, and if he uses that strategy again and brings in another offensive piece, I could see it being RB or WR.

Michael Turner is likely coming up on his last season as a guy that can handle 300+ carries. He simply takes too big of a pounding each week. Snelling is a fine 3rd stringer, but the team needs a back-up guy that has some big-play ability, quickness, and good pass receiving skills. If the team goes free agency, Darren Sproles could be a fit. As for slot receiver, Santana Moss needs a job and if the price is right, that could be another offensive fit for the birds.

It is tough to think positively immediately after the crushing loss against the Packers. However, they had a rare combination of a hot QB and a stiff defense-good things are still in the Falcons future.

The Falcons have a really good nucleus and now are on 3 winning seasons in a row. Winning seasons and division titles certainly made the Braves significant in the 90's, but as anyone today will tell you, world titles are what matters. At this point, I can't see Art Blank failing on his goal to bring Atlanta a Lombari trophy...

Thursday, January 27, 2011

More CBB musings...

So now that most of us are in full college hoops mode, it is time to do a little more catch-up on what teams may be sliding under the radar. We get so much Big 10/Big East/ACC/SEC games shoved down our throat during the week, it is easy to miss out on some of the mid-majors that can certainly make a splash. Butler, George Mason, Gonzaga, and others have shown that mid-majors can make deep runs in March.

Most of us are now aware of San Diego State and BYU’s outstanding start, but here is a look at some other teams that you may want to write in for a win or 2 when filling out brackets:

1) Belmont (18-4) – The notoriously bad Atlantic Sun has a team that can do some damage this year in Belmont. Coached by legend Rick Byrd, the Bruins shoot lights out and if hot, can beat a lot of teams. They played at Tennessee and lost by 1 earlier in the year, and fought Vandy hard as well, losing by 9. Amazingly, Belmont leads the A-Sun in scoring (82+) without a player averaging more than 12 ppg, and leads the A-Sun in rebounding (37+), without a player averaging more than 5.5 rpg.

2) Coastal Carolina (18-2) – This could be a team entering the tournament with an unblemished conference record. An experienced team, Coastal has solid guard play and has good wins against Charlotte and LSU.

3) Virginia Commonwealth (16-5) – VCU has played a very tough non-conference schedule, and it has paid off with an 8-1 start in the CAA. They own wins over UCLA and Wake, while playing Tennessee, Richmond, and UAB on the road down to the wire.

4) Wichita State (17-4) – Another mid-major that has played a good schedule, the Shockers had UConn beat back in November before melting down late in the 2nd half. They currently lead the almost high-major MVC and should be a major player in March.

5) Oakland (14-8) – Oakland lights it up offensively (82.6 ppg) and owns a great win over Tennessee. The Golden Grizzlies also played Illinois and Michigan State extremely well and have an RPI in the top 60.

6) St Mary’s (17-3) – The Gaels don’t have a bad loss, losing to MWC powers SDSU and BYU along with at Vanderbilt. They also blew out Texas Tech by 20, beat Mississippi State, and St Johns. With a current RPI of 40, St Mary’s has good shot at an at-large bid should they not win the WCC.

7) Utah State (18-2) – USU is on a tremendous run since losing at Georgetown on December 4th. The Aggies have started off 7-0 in conference play and put up a strong showing in a loss to BYU. A win over in-state rival Utah has also helped the resume and RPI, which stands at 41.

8) UNLV (16-5) – The Rebs have been lost in the shuffle in the MWC with BYU and SDSU getting off to such great starts. But, the Rebs have another shot at the top 2 and have a 31 RPI by beating Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Murray State. Look for UNLV to knock off one of the top 2 sometime the next few weeks.

As for the big boys, I was very surprised to see Pitt go down at home earlier this week. But that is the life in the Big East, which is as strong as ever. My new bandwagon team for now is Texas, as they have shown they are as talented and athletic as anyone. Their mix of experience, guard play, and athleticism has #1 seed written all over it.

Top 15 for 1/26
1. Ohio State
2. Duke
3. San Diego State
4. UConn
5. Texas
6. Pittsburgh
7. Kansas
8. Villanova
9. BYU
10. Kentucky
11. Texas A&M
12. Notre Dame
13. Missouri
14. Vanderbilt
15. Syracuse

Friday, January 14, 2011

NFL Playoffs...

I have a crazy nervous/excited feeling about Saturday night. I think the Packers are clearly the best team standing in the way of the Birds and the Super Bowl. The Bears/Seahawks winner could certainly win in the GA Dome, but the Packers scare me a lot more.

I wrote several weeks ago that the Eagles were the scariest team in the NFC, but they went in the tank in 11 of their last 12 quarters. I still think that the Falcons will win and their dominance in the GA Dome will continue and Saturday's game will result in the 1st NFC Championship game in Atlanta.

As with most years, teams that can run the ball and stop the run have advanced and are likely to advance. The Colts and Saints had their already "iffy" ground games stymied by injuries and were eliminated in the wild-card round. The Ravens shut down KC's running game, holding them to just 108 yards (41 on the Charles TD run), and it is no coincidence that when James Starks stepped up for 123 yards, the Packers were able to control the ball and beat the Eagles (1 rushing yards).

Aaron Rodgers and his arsenal of receiving weapons are definitely capable of putting up huge numbers and points, but GB ranked 24th in the league in rushing this year, and was just 18th in rushing defense. I think GB has the best D in the NFC, but like in the regular season match-up they will have to commit an extra man to contain Turner and Snelling. This should open up the passing game and I think Michael Jenkins is a guy that needs to go for 5+ catches and 65+ yards.

The Atlanta running game ranked 12th in the league and their rushing D was 10th. I don't think Starks gets over 50 yards in the game as I think the GB run game will be completely taken away. Again, it is very tough to win in the NFL, especially the playoffs, if you can't run the ball.

Before the season, I picked GB over Atlanta in the NFCCG and then had GB losing to Baltimore. However, I like the Falcons at this point at home playing GB without Ryan Grant and a consistent running game. It won't be easy and Matt Ryan has yet to win a playoff game, but I am picking the Falcons, 26-24.

Other games:

Chicago 27 - Seattle 17

Baltimore 17 - Pittsburgh 16

New England 28 - Jets 17

Thursday, January 13, 2011

NBA and College hoops thoughts...

I don't want to look anti-Auburn here, but I need their basketball team to show why college basketball these days is so unpredictable. Auburn is without question a bottom feeder in the SEC in 2010-11 and will not even sniff the NIT. They blew a 27 point 1st half lead to Georgia Southern, lost to UNCA/Campbell/Samford to start the year, and trailed 9-7 LSU 32-6 at halftime in a home game last weekend. Their 2 best wins are Florida State and....Arkansas Pine-Bluff?? Hard to find another quasi-quality win on the schedule.

Point is, Florida State knocked off previously unbeaten and defending champs Duke last night. How in the world does Duke lose to a team that Auburn beat by 5? Crazy result, but Duke always seems to struggle in Tallahassee.

As more people turn their focus to college basketball this week, here are 5 things to know about the season so far.

1) The Big East has 7 lock NCAA tournament teams right now (Marq, Cincy, UConn, Cuse, Pitt, Nova, and ND. And, they could easily get in Louisville, Georgetown, and West Virginia for a total of 10. Best conference....by far.

2) The Mountain West Conference is worth paying attention to. Jimmer Fredette is on fire this year, averaging more than 26 points per game, and BYU has beaten Arizona, USF, St Mary's, @Creighton, and @UNLV. San Diego is one of 4 remaining unbeaten teams and could be a #2 seed in the tournament.

3) Ohio State, while not too deep and without a true point guard, has all the ingredients of a championship team. They play remarkable defense while shooting over 50% from the floor and score over 80 points per game.

4) Current un-ranked teams that are top 25 teams in the country - Florida, Michigan State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State

5) Team getting too much hype? Kansas - no wins over current top 25 teams and near losses to un-ranked USC, UCLA, and Michigan.

Team not getting enough hype? Pitt - probably due to their consistent early exits in March, many are hesitant to get on the Pitt bandwagon. They are amazingly efficient on offense, deep, athletic, and share the ball (1st in the nation in assists). Just look at their wins: Texas, UConn, Marquette, @G'town, and Maryland.


And, here are 5 of the best games already been played that you probably missed.

1) UConn 82 Texas 81 - Texas went up 9 in the 1st half only to fall behind by 7 with 5 minutes to go. The Horns force OT, but lose on Kemba Walker's 15 footer with 4 seconds left.

2) UCF 57 Florida 54 - UCF led for most of this one and then went on to beat Miami to state their claim as the best team in Florida

3) UAB 100 UTEP 97 (3 OT's) - If there is 1 thing you need to know about UAB, it is don't turn off any of their games at halftime. Their 2nd half prowess this year has been remarkable. In the 2nd half this year, they have outscored Troy 47-28, UGA 32-23, UTEP 33-26, GW 41-22, VCU 47-32, USA 46-25, and so on. They are also 2-0 in OT. The 3 OT win over UTEP was an unreal start to the C-USA schedule.

4) Oakland 89 Tennessee 82 - Oakland (MI) knocked off UT shortly after UT beat Pitt and Nova (still the only loss for both to date). UT has been very inconsistent this year but has a ton of players and has hosted many illegal Bar-B-Q's.

5) Texas A&M 63 Washington 62 - David Loubeau blocked an Isiah Thomas lay-up as time expired to ensure the victory for the Aggies. A very well played game on both ends and possibly a match up of conference champions.

More NCAA hoops stuff to come in the next few weeks, including a bubble watch and must-see games.

As for the NBA, I have just one thought in relation to the Hawks. Will they stand pat with the group they have and lose in round 2 in 4-5 games or make a move to give them a chance? The Magic made drastic moves to try and keep pace with the Miami Super Friends, and the Hawks need to do the same.

Steve Nash can be had. Phoenix also has veterans that would fit in well with the Hawks (Grant Hill/Channing Frye). Lets get Crawford/Teague/Marvin/2 1sts and make a run at Nash and a veteran. It's the only way this group stands a chance in the playoffs the next few seasons. You have Nash for a year and a half and let him run the show.

If you can't get Nash, try for Billups or Calderon. Something needs to be done. Crawford would be a big loss, but he isn't re-signing. You think the Magic, Celtics, or Lebron and company would fear this team in Round 2?

Nash/Bibby
Johnson/Wilkins
Hill/Evans
Smith/ZaZa/Powell
Frye/Collins

ESPN Trade Machine says a Nash/Hill/Frye for Crawford/Teague/Williams/2 1sts increases the Hawks win total by 14.

What would you do? Anyone out there worth making a run? Joe is un-trade able, but would moving Josh make the team better?

Thoughts are welcome...

CFB season comes to an end...

Well, the 2010 college football season came to an end Monday as Wes Byrum kicked the game winning field goal as time expired and Auburn defeated Oregon 22-19. A truly magical season for the Tigers as they followed Alabama's unbeaten season with their own national championship led by the Heisman winner. What the future will bring for a program that has spent more time on probation than every school outside of SMU and Arizona State should be very interesting.

Looking at Auburn football and their troubled past is even more interesting than their 2010 Cam Newton saga-filled season. What is intriguing is when they have gone on probation for violating NCAA rules.

1) 1957-1958 - Assistant coaches caught paying recruits that resulted in several years of no bowl games and other penalties. Not coincidentally, 1957 is the other year besides 2010 that Auburn "claims" a National Championship.

2) 1979 - One year after Alabama wins the National title, Auburn is once again caught giving improper benefits to players and is slapped with more sanctions including no TV or bowl games for 2 years.

3) 1993 - Again, one year after Alabama wins the National title, the Pat Dye tapes come out and more proof is once again found by the NCAA that Auburn is paying players. Auburn goes on to finish unbeaten in 1993 but does not get a chance to win the National title due to their probation.

4) 2010 - Again, one year after Alabama wins the National title, paying players and improper actions are again being reported. What comes of this is yet to be seen (the NCAA is still interviewing builders and boosters and the FBI is still investigating).

Hopefully, the Auburn title in 2010 is legitimate. It would be a disgrace to college football and the SEC if Auburn acted as it has so often in their troubled past. Other programs in the SEC have had troubles as well, but not so much in the last 20 years.

Lets just hope SMU and ASU remain the only schools to go on probation 8 times and the trend of violations immediately following Bama titles ends in 2011...