April Musings...

A month's worth of stuff to discuss, I've got some quick musings on the Falcons/Hawks/Braves before tomorrows blog on the "Atlanta Sports Fan." 

The draft is shaping up and the Birds did just what they needed to...shore up the secondary and bulk up with size and toughness on the OL.  The team clearly needed some new bodies on the OL after the 24-2 debacle, and the additions of Konz (immediate starter) and Holmes will definitely help.   Here is how I see the OL shaping up...

Clabo
Konz
McClure
Blalock
Svitek

That is how they will probably start going into the pre-season, with the hopes that Manuwai, Holmes, Baker, and maybe some other guys step up in the competition for playing time.   Samuel gives the secondary a great nickel back that can make plays.  On offense, the team needs to find a way to effectively run the ball against good teams and get the ball to their big-play WRs.  Overall, I like the off-season, much better than using all cap space on Mario Williams...

The Hawks have a difficult 1st round match-up, but with Rose banged up at least they avoid the Heat until a possible Conference Final showdown.  I think they can win the series, but not having Al and possibly not have ZaZa really hurts.  I do, however, like what Sund did with the bench this year after not bringing Jamal back.  They have a good mix of veterans, which has been good in a season where practice time has been limited.

NBA Playoff Predictions

Heat over Knicks
Bulls over 76ers
Hawks over Celtics
Pacers over Magic

Thunder over Mavs
Spurs over Jazz
Grizzlies over Clippers
Nuggets over Lakers

Heat over Pacers
Hawks over Bulls

Thunder over Nuggets
Grizzlies over Spurs

Heat over Thunder

The Braves are off to a terrific start, as most of the things they needed to start off strong have happened.  Chipper has played well and often, Heyward started strong, and the starters - especially Beachy & Minor have been spectacular.  If they hold up, I think they have pretty reliable veterans in Uggla, McCann, and Bourn and I think Freeman has shown he is a legit middle of the order hitter.  The bullpen is really good and I like this team...

Random Musings...

Some thoughts as the NCAA tournament is wrapping up and baseball is about to begin...

Looks like all of our Cinderella's are gone in the tournament, as the heavyweights took care of business on Thursday and Friday. Take a look at the teams and coaches that survived to Elite 8 weekend...

1) Florida vs Louisville - Both coaches with National championships in the last 15 years

2) Ohio State vs Syracuse - National champion coach against one with 3 Elite 8 appearances and a national runner-up

3) Baylor vs Kentucky - Coach with 3 Final Fours and numerous Elite 8's against an an upstart coach making his 2nd elite 8 appearance in 3 years

4) Kansas vs UNC - 2 more coaches with titles battling it out on Sunday in a super-heavyweight match-up of programs and coaches

Prediction: Same one I had at the start of the tourney, Kentucky over Ohio State

I know folks have read tons of Chipper stuff the past few days, but I came across a few numbers that were rather significant. Needless to say, I think he should go in the HOF in 2017...

Chip's OPS (on base + slugging), which is considered the best stat for overall offensive production, puts him #31 all-time. Guys who he is just ahead of on the all-time list?

Hank Aaron

Frank Robinson

Ken Griffey

Mike Schmidt

Gary Sheffield

Willie McCovey

Eddie Mathews

Harmon Killebrew

In 11 of his 17 seasons, he walked more than he struck out and never had a 100+ K season. It's a shame he missed that 1994 season with a torn ACL, he would have probably hit 20+ home runs and had an outside shot at 500 this year...

Speaking of baseball, I don't know what Fredi G (who the more I read is absolutely on the hot seat in April/May) wants to do with the lineup. If it were up to me, Chip would have to slide down this year to break up all the lefty sticks that need to be in the top of the order.

Bourn - CF
Prado - LF

McCann - C

Uggla - 2B
Freeman - 1B

Jones - 3B

Heyward - RF

Pastornicky - SS

As for the pitching staff, I think they have the right idea with Medlen as he can go 2-4 innings a couple times a week to help preserve O'Ventral. I think the team is hoping Medlen's 2012 numbers are something like - 7-3, 8 saves, 3.00 ERA, 110 IP

The rotation is the key as Fredi has to figure out how to keep all his strong arms happy and healthy. To start the season, it should look something like:

Hanson

Beachy

Jurrjens

Minor

Teheran/Delgado

When Hudson returns, I am not sure what will happen. I think Frank Wren hopes Jurrjens starts strong and he can move him for some offensive help. If not, he will likely be on the DL and Hudson will slide into his spot.

As for predictions, here is what I see...

NL East - Atlanta (Philly is getting old and banged up, not buying Miami/Wash yet)

NL Central - Cincy (Milwaukee lost a bit too much but has best pitching, Latos helps rotation)

NL West - Arizona (Solid lineup and starting pitching wins weak division)

WC - Philly/Miami battle out to the last week

AL East - Yankees (Sox continue to struggle with injuries)

AL Central - Tigers (Easiest pick on the board)

AL West - Rangers (Darvish is legit and Hamilton playing for contract)

WC - Angels

Fantasy stuff - If you pick in the top 4 in the 1st round you have to go Cabrera, Kemp, Braun, or Pujols...after that, there is some risk. I'm not comfortable taking Cano, Verlander, Upton, Bautista, or Ellsbury in the 1st, but as long as he doesn't get his urine checked, Mike Stanton looks the part of a 1st rounder.

I've got some NFL draft thoughts that should be up here in the next few days so keep checking in here for some draft nuggets...

NCAA Tournament bids...

With March coming next week, it is time to see what teams are "in" the tourney, and who is on the "bubble." More importantly for the bubble teams, who do you need to root for in the conference tournaments that start next week?

Teams that have secured a spot as of now, with their always-important RPI in parentheses:

SEC - Kentucky (4), Florida (17), Vanderbilt (26)

ACC - UNC (5), Duke (3), Florida St (18), Virginia (37)

Big 10 - Michigan St (2), Ohio St (7), Michigan (10), Indiana (19), Wisconsin (22)

Big East - Syracuse (1), Marquette (8), Georgetown (15), Louisville (21), Notre Dame (33)

Big 12 - Baylor (9), Kansas (6), Missouri (13), Kansas St (41)

Missouri Valley - Creighton (28), Wichita St (11)

Mountain West - UNLV (12), SDSU (30), New Mexico (29)

WCC - Gonzaga (20), St Mary's (34)

Pac 12 - California (32)

Conf-USA - Southern Miss (16), Memphis (27)

A-10 - Temple (14), St Louis (23)

Ohio Valley - Murray St (39)

Add to the list 19 other conferences that will get Auto-Bids, and assuming one of the teams from each of the conferences listed wins the conference tournament, we have 15 bids left.

Your bubble teams:

UConn - (24, 17-10) - Under .500 in the Big East right now, the Huskies have work to do...They are 3-7 their last 10 and host Syracuse Saturday night. They have some good wins over Florida St, Harvard, WVU, Seton Hall, and Notre Dame, but can lock up a spot with a win over the Orange. Lose, and the need to win their final 2 Big East games and at least 1 in the Big East Tournament. Prediction: In

Colorado St (25, 17-9) - Only on the list due to the RPI number, the Rams just picked up their signature win this week against New Mexico. Lots of losses to high ranked RPI teams have helped their number. Prediction: Out

Seton Hall (31, 19-9) - After a 6 game losing streak, the Pirates have rebounded nicely and are in position to grab a bid. Win at home against Rutgers Saturday and then on the road against Depaul next week and their 10-8 conference record looks pretty good. Prediction: In

Alabama (38, 17-9) - They fought through their suspensions and still have a pretty good shot at a bid. Early season wins over Wichita, VCU, and Purdue will help along with some quality wins against Oklahoma St and Maryland. Prediction: In

Middle Tennessee St (40, 23-4) - The Blue Raiders don't really have any wins to speak of, but beating Belmont and Ole Miss isn't bad. Prediction: Must win conference tourney

Iowa St (43, 20-8) - The Mayor's squad has been hot as of late but has a tough finish to the conference schedule. The Kansas win looks great, but they can't lose all of their final 3 games at Kansas St, at Missouri, or at home vs Baylor. Prediction: In

West Virginia (44, 17-11) - WVU is your classic bubble team...They are 3-6 their last nine, play in a big-time conference, have some good wins mixed in, but don't really know their fate yet. If they can beat Marquette this weekend at home and follow it up with a home win against Depaul and can win at USF, they have an excellent shot. Slip up and they will need a deep run in the Big East tournament to get in. Prediction: In

BYU (46, 21-6) - Their best wins are Gonzaga, Oregon, and Nevada, and they got swept by St Mary's. The Baylor and Wisconsin losses aren't bad, but getting one of those would have put them "in" by now. Prediction: Must get to conference title game

Northwestern (47, 16-11) One team I really hope gets in is Northwestern, as they have never gotten in...The Cats don't really have a bad loss, and that Michigan State win looks better each week. But, I still think they need to win either at home against Ohio St or at Iowa (which has shown is a very tough place to win lately) to get on the right side of the bubble. Prediction: In

Miami (49, 16-10) - Miami has the Duke win, and that is why they are on the bubble. Their 5-game stretch in December where they lost to Ole Miss, Purdue, Memphis, and West Virginia really hurt. Any one of those wins would really help their case right now, especially after losing their last game to Maryland. I think Miami needs to get to 20 wins, either by winning out (FSU, at NCSU, vs BC) or making a conference tourney run. Prediction: Out

Purdue (50, 18-10) - What Purdue has going for them is that they have a lot of wins over other bubble teams (Miami, NW x2, Illinois x2, Iowa x2). They have lost most of their big games against the top of the Big 10, but do have a quality win over Temple. They need to win at Indiana or at Michigan to really put themselves into a good spot. Prediction: In

Oregon (51, 19-8) - The Ducks have played 8 teams that have or are going to be mentioned here and are 1-7 in those games. The lack of quality wins and the lack of good teams in the Pac-12 will make it tough on Oregon. They need to win their last 3 (@OSU, Col, Utah) and probably get to the conference championship game. Prediction: Out

Washington (52, 19-8)- Washington split with Oregon, and is in basically the same position as the Ducks. The Huskies are hot, winning 8 of their last 9, but they squandered their big chances in December. They need to win their final 3 games (@UCLA, @WSU, @USC) and make a conference tourney run to get in. Prediction: In

Xavier (53, 17-10) - Xavier is a tough team to gauge due to their early-season shenanigans. They were on a real run early in the year with consecutive wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, and Cincinnati. Since then, they were knocked off several times after a few key players were suspended, and have turned out to be a pretty good team in a better A-10. They really need to win at Saint Louis next week to help their resume, but a run in the conference tourney can help as well. Prediction: In

Texas (55, 17-11) - Good wins against Temple, Iowa State, and Kansas State, but they have lost most of their other big games. They need to win at Texas Tech and beat Oklahoma before we put them in. Prediction: In

Arizona (67, 19-9) - The Cats are usually a lot higher on the RPI list with their record, but their only win of note is at Cal. Another Pac-12 team that needs to win out and make a conference tourney run. Prediction: In

Mississippi State (60, 19-9) - Even with their recent stumbles, MSU has a good shot at an at-large bid if they finish strong. Early in the season, they beat Arizona, WVU, and TAMU. Their Vanderbilt win is solid, but they need to get going quickly as they have lost 4 straight. Win at least 2 of 3 and get a couple in their conference tourney, and I think MSU has a shot. Prediction: In

NC State - (62, 18-10) - Six conference wins, none against teams with a .500 record or better in the ACC. Only win against team mentioned here was early in the year against Texas. Prediction: Out

Cincinnati (82, 19-8) - The Bearcats have a pretty tough stretch to end the season (@USF, vs Marq, @Nova), but at 10-5 in the conference, they can really lock up a bid by ending the season strongly. They have wins against 5 of the top Big East teams and have moved into the final spot of the bracket by beating Louisville this week. Prediction: In

All teams on this list need to make sure they are rooting for Creighton/Wichita in the Valley, MTSU in the Sun Belt, Long Beach State in the Big West, Iona in the MAAC, and Oral Roberts in the Summit, just to be safe...

Selection Sunday Predictions 2 weeks early...

1. Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC, Ohio State

2. Michigan St, Kansas, Missouri, Duke

3. Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida St

4. Louisville, Florida, Wichita St, UNLV

5. Baylor, Wisconsin, Murray St, Temple

6. Indiana, Creighton, Southern Miss, Vanderbilt

7. New Mexico, Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Virginia

8. Alabama, San Diego St, Kansas St, St Mary's

9. Cal, St. Louis, Harvard, Iowa St

10. WVU, Memphis, Xavier, UConn

11. Purdue, Texas, Seton Hall, BYU

12. Long Beach St, Harvard, Arizona, Cincy/Washington

13. Miss St/NW, Iona, Oral Roberts, MTSU

14. Davidson, VCU, Belmont, Nevada

15. Akron, Valpo, UNCA, Weber St

16. LIU, UTA, Savannah St/Bucknell, MVSU/Vermont

Top 15 Atlanta Hawks

It has been a long time since our last post, but with hoops in full swing now, the blog entries will be coming. Thanks to loyal reader Beezbo for the topic for today...it was tough narrowing down this list, as you I considered players for the Hawks since their move to Atlanta, but focused only on their time in Atlanta. Walt Bellamy just missed the cut, as he only played a few seasons in Atlanta in his 30's, and Jason Terry was a late scratch due to the awful teams he was forced to be a part of...but I digress...

15) Tree Rollins - Rollins, the Hawks 1st round pick (14th) in 1977, played his first 11 seasons in Atlanta. Never a big scorer, Rollins was a solid presence in the paint, bringing down an average of between 6.0 and 9.4 rebounds per game in each season as a Hawk. Rollins best skill, though, was shot blocking, as he racked up almost 2300 blocks in his Hawk career. He led the league in 82-83 with 343 blocks (4.3 bpg) and was in the NBA's top 5 in blocks per game 8 out of 11 seasons.

14) Al Horford -Horford has had a tremendous start to his Hawk career, even though his 5th season was cut short by injury. Al has started all but 4 games he has appeared in during his career, is a 2-time All-Star, and has finished in the top 10 in rebounding twice. Al's drive, scoring, rebounding, defensive, and passing abilities have him in position to move up this list quickly throughout the next few years.

13) Eddie Johnson - Johnson had a terrific career as a Hawk after being selected in the 3rd round of the 1977 draft out of Auburn. He averaged over 15 points a game and 5 assists a game from 77-85, was a 2-time All-Star (80-81), and twice was named to the 2nd team All-NBA defensive team.

12) John Drew - Drew was an 8 year Atlanta Hawk from 74-82 and was a scoring machine from day 1. After being the Hawks 2nd round pick in 74 out of Gardner-Webb, Drew was a 1st team All-NBA rookie after averaging 18.5 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. He went on to average over 21 points per game 5 times, finishing in the top 10 in the NBA twice.

11) Doc Rivers - The Hawks took Doc in the 2nd Round in 1983, and he immediately became a starter and top contributor for all 8 seasons he spent in Atlanta. His best years were 85-88, as he led the team to 29 playoff games in that stretch, while averaging a double-double in playoff games. Doc averaged a double-double in 86-87 with 12.8 points and 10 assists per game. He was a member of the 1988 All-Star team and had 3 seasons as a Hawk in the top 10 in the league in steals, and 2 seasons in the top 10 in assists.

10) Josh Smith - Smith is a stat sheet filler that has been a key player during the current Hawk stretch of solid playoff teams. In his 8th season, Smith has been a part of 41 playoff games, averaging 15.5 ppg and 8 rebounds per game, slightly above his career averages. He has finished in the top 3 in the NBA in blocks 4 times, the top 10 in steals once, and was a member of the 2nd team All-NBA defensive squad in 09-10. He currently is on pace for his 6th straight season averaging over 15 points per game and over 7 rebounds per game.

9) Mookie Blaylock - Mookie's 7 seasons as the Hawks point guard saw the team reach the playoffs each season. He was a key part of several really good Hawk teams, including the 96-97 team that was one of the top 3 teams in the NBA but ran into the Bulls in Round 2. In his Atlanta career, Mookie was an All-Star in 1994, finished in the top 6 in steals all 7 seasons, was top 3 in 3-pointers made 3 times, and finished top 10 in assists 3 times.

8) Steve Smith - Smith only spent 4 1/2 years in Atlanta, but he was the go-to guy and leader on some of the franchises best teams. He led the team in scoring each season he was a Hawk, peaking with a 20.1 ppg average in 96-97 and 97-98. He hit several game-winning shots and was an All-Star in 1998.

7) Pete Maravich - Pistol Pete played his first 4 seasons in the NBA in Atlanta, and he put on a show. After being the Hawks 1st round pick (3rd overall) in 1970, Pete averaged 23.2 points per game as a rookie. After a slight dip in production in his second season, Pete exploded in the 72-73 and 73-74 seasons, putting up 27 points and 6 assists per game. He was also a 24+ point and 5+ assist per game guy for the Hawks in the playoffs. As a Hawk, Maravich was a 2-time All-Star, finished in the top 10 in scoring 3 times, and was 7th in the league in assists in 72-73.

6) Joe Johnson - True Hawk fans will always love Joe because he came to Atlanta when no other player of his caliber would. He has been a 20+ point scorer since signing as a FA from Phoenix in 2005, and has averaged around 5 assists per game as well. He has made 5 All-Star teams as a Hawk, named All-NBA 3rd team, and finished in the top 10 in 3-pointers made twice.

5) Kevin Willis - Willis played in the league a long time, and his most successful seasons were in Atlanta. Kevin had many big-time seasons in the mid-to-late 80's and early 90's as a Hawk, highlighted by a 18.3/15.5 season in 91-92. He was an All-Star in 92 and was 3rd team All-NBA, finished top 5 in rebounds 3 times, and even came back in 04-05 to contribute some to current Hawk team when they were younger.

4) Dan Roundfield - Roundfield had a tremendous career as a Hawk from 78-84, making 3 All-Star teams and helping the team get to the playoffs 5 times. He averaged 15+ points and 10+ rebounds in each season in Atlanta, peaking at 19.0 and 11.4 in 82-83. Consistently at the top of the NBA leaders in rebounds and blocks, Roundfield earned 1st team All-Defensive team honors 3 times as a Hawk and was 2nd team twice. Roundfield also was rewarded for his 79-80 season with 2nd team All-NBA honors.

3) Dikembe Mutombo - Most of the reason for the success of the mid-to-late 90's team was that they finally signed a dominate center to defend and rebound in Mutombo. Deke averaged a double-double every season as a Hawk, highlighted by a 11.4 ppg and 14.0 rpg season in 99-00. He made 4 All-Star games as a Hawk, was NBA defensive POY twice, led the league in rebounds 3 times, and led the league in blocks twice.

2) Lou Hudson - Sweet Lou spend 11 years as a Hawk, with the last 9 being after the franchise moved to Atlanta. Hudson scored between 22-25 points per game every season in Atlanta, while collecting just under 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game. He was a 6-time All-Star, 2nd team All-NBA in 69-70, top 6 points 3 times, and top 8 in FG's made 4 times.

1) Dominique Wilkins - 'Nique is clearly the top Atlanta Hawk of all-time as he did it all while in Atlanta from 82-93. Wilkins was a scoring champion, slam dunk champion, 7-time All-NBA, 8 time All-Star, and one of the greatest scorers in NBA history. Dominique consistently was an MVP candidate and top scorer in the league, and was recent inductee to the NBA Hall of Fame.

Bowl thoughts...

I mentioned earlier how the Chick-Fil-A bowl committee were celebrating the Clemson win last night as they land the VT-Auburn match up they wanted. Here are what some of the other bowl committees have on their plates...

Fiesta Bowl: Outside of Bama fans, this committee wants a LSU-Bama match up more than anyone. Why? Not only do they get OSU in their game as the Big 12 champ, but they can hype the game with a BCS title game-worthy opponent that will receive plenty of press if they are not in the game and place them against another top 5 team in Stanford.

Orange Bowl: This game is all but set, and with all the bad match ups this game has had the last few years, the Orange Bowl finally gets 2 teams that will travel and provide a high-scoring shootout that people will want to watch in Clemson and West Virginia.

Rose Bowl: Another BCS bowl that got their dream match up with Oregon and Wisconsin. Any time the Rose gets their Pac-10/Big-10 game they will be happy.

Cotton Bowl: This a pleased committee as well because it appears they might get their dream SEC team in Arkansas and will be able to pair them with a Heisman finalist and fun team to watch with RG3 and Baylor.

Gator Bowl: This bowl might get big name powerhouses Florida and Ohio State in an Urban Meyer bowl, plenty of ways to hype this game.

Sugar Bowl: They really want LSU-OSU too, as they would then get an SEC team in Alabama. The Sugar would like to pair Bama with another BCS-at large team like Kansas State.

Music City: The Music City would love to grab Vanderbilt to play in Nashville against an ACC team like Virginia or NC State.

Holiday Bowl: This has been one of the earlier bowls featuring big-name, ranked teams over the years. Not so in 2011. This game is Pac-12 #3 vs Big-12 #5, and typically there are quality teams in these slots. Look for a pair of 7-5 teams, Cal and Mizzou to be in this game.

BCS Projections:

Title Game: LSU-OSU
Rose Bowl: Oregon-Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford-Michigan
Sugar: Alabama-Kansas State
Orange: WVU-Clemson

Final Heisman ballot

1. Robert Griffin III - I've gone back and forth between the top 4, but my vote goes to RG3. Over 72% completion rate, 4,000 yards, 36 TD's, and only 6 picks. I don't like how the award has gone to the best player on the best team so much recently, I think we should get back to giving it to the most outstanding player. If Baylor was 11-1, Griffin would be close to a unanimous selection with this season.

2. Andrew Luck - Another QB who had an amazing season, Luck isn't the winner because he had his worst game in his teams biggest game. However, the rest of his season was so good, he gets an invite and is certainly worthy of some 1st place votes.

3. Montee Ball - The nations leading rusher and leading TD man on a BCS conference champion should have more Heisman-hype than Montee has received.

4. Trent Richardson - Another outstanding player who deserves consideration and will get 1st place votes. He was the "guy" on the Tide offense in a season where they were one of the top teams, rushing for over 1500 yards with 20 TD's.

5. Tyrann Mathieu - If this years award went to the best player on the best team, Tyrann would be the winner. He makes the list by having his 3 best games (Oregon, Arkansas, UGA) in 3 of the Tigers 4 biggest games. He covers receivers like a maniac, has elite return skills, and added 6 forced fumbles and 5 fumble recoveries this season.

Who is playing in the Tittle Game?

I can't wait to see the polls today that will go a long way towards determining who will play in the BCS title game. There are arguments galore, but after yesterday I think the game should be LSU-Oklahoma St. I think OSU made a big statement by destroying OU in a much hyped game. Bama has a strong argument by playing LSU tough, but OSU is the pick for the title game.

Hard to believe Clemson hasn't won the ACC in 20 years, but kudos to them for bouncing back from a horrendous November to take the title game. I know the Chick-Fil-A Bowl is happy that they don't have choose between a Clemson team on a huge downward slide, UVA that was blown out by VT in their last game, FSU who played in the game last year, or the local team in GT that has lost momentum. That game will be Auburn-VT now...

I also think Michigan gets in the BCS, which drops MSU to the Cap 1 and Nebraska to the Outback. The Cap 1 also takes Arkansas, with South Carolina to the Cotton, and UGA to the Outback.

Final regular season RSM Poll

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma St
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Arkansas
7. South Carolina
8. Wisconsin
9. Boise St
10. Kansas St
11. Michigan
12. Georgia
13. Michigan St
14. USC
15. Baylor
16. TCU
17. Clemson
18. Virginia Tech
19. Oklahoma
20. Nebraska
21. Penn St
22. Notre Dame
23. Southern Miss
24. Houston
25. Texas