Another Craig Kimbrel blown save last night has people all over town wondering why Jonny Venters hasn't taken over the closers role for the Braves. Venters has been unreal all season and looks like a sure-fire All-Star as a middle reliever with a 0.48 ERA in a league-leading 34 games so far. I think Venters would make an outstanding closer, but making him the Braves closer now is definitely not the answer.
Most baseball fans do not understand the role of a manager in baseball. They believe that anyone that knows baseball at all could write the names of the Yankees on a lineup card and let CC Sabathia go throw every 5th day and win 90+ games easily. In fact, managing professional baseball players over the course of 9 months is a lot of work. The decision to move Dan Uggla down in the order, moving McLouth around, and most other day-to-day decisions a big-league manager makes is discussed in great depth.
Managers must consider player personalities, egos, and other situations that may come out of each and every lineup move and pitching change throughout the season. Getting Eric Hinske enough at-bats to remain content, George Sherrill enough innings, and keeping Brooks Conrad fresh are all difficult things to deal with.
Which brings us to Kimbrel and Venters...We know from last year that Venters is an elite set-up man. The franchise believes that Kimbrel is the closer of the future and he was given the first shot at the job this year. Taking that job from Kimbrel could cause major issues to a bullpen that has been arguably the best in the major leagues so far this season.
First, conventional wisdom says that if Venters became the closer, then Kimbrel could then work as the 8th inning guy. But what about his psyche after being demoted? Kimbrel is a young power pitcher that relies on challenging hitters and having a dominant mound presence. What if he loses that when moved to a 7th or 8th inning role?
Second, we don't know how Venters would react to becoming a full-time closer for the first time. Plenty of guys have been lights-out as set up men and then flopped when given the closers role. On the other hand, many young closers have bombed out after being moved out of the closers role. Switching the 2 right now may seem easy, but what if it doesn't work and you want to switch back?
Plus, it is not as if Kimbrel has been terrible this year. He ranks 2nd in the league in WAR and is 18/23 in save situations with 47 K's in 31 innings. That projects to 45+ saves for the season, and even if his blown saves are near the top of the league, that's a pretty good season for a 23 year old rookie.
This Braves team has issues, but they are not related to pitching. Getting Heyward and McLouth back and getting Dan Uggla going are definitely much more pressing issues. That being said, they are sitting at 34-28 with the 3rd best run-differential in the league.
With 30 games left until the All-Star break, this team is in pretty good shape right now. They will always be in games with their pitching (especially when Moylan, Beachy, and Medlen return) and they get series with last place clubs Baltimore, Houston, and San Diego.
Get healthy, keep pitching, and let Fredi manage his club as he sees fit, and this is still a 90+ win playoff team...
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
MLB Draft thoughts...
There were certainly some interesting stories to come out of the MLB Draft so far, especially at the top of the 1st round. There were 2 starting pitchers from UCLA taken in the top 3, 2 high school pitchers from Oklahoma taken in the top 7, and the Royals taking the home-state guy in Bubba Starling at #5.
Biggest surprises in Round 1 in my eyes were Cory Spangenberg from Indian River State CC at #10. A solid bat and pretty versatile, but not the type of talent you want in the top 10. Also, the Mets taking Brandon Nimmo at #13 was a bit of a surprise as he wasn't viewed by most as a top 25 prospect.
The Braves also had a surprising pick at #28 in FSU LHP Sean Gilmartin, likely due to Robert Stephenson being taken by the Reds the pick before. I was hoping for Mikie Mahtook, who had dropped when a few unlikely pitchers jumped into the 1st round. Hopefully, Gilmartin will work out like Mike Minor, a pick I questioned as well.
That same draft was when the curious decision by Matt Purke was made after he was the 14th pick by Texas. Purke turned down 4 million to go to TCU and struggled this year with velocity and injuries, and was drafted by Washington in the 3rd round. He will likely be looking for a multi-million dollar contract, even at pick 96, or head back to TCU for another year and hope to get his stock back up if the money isn't there.
After a huge run on GA high school players in the 1st round the past few years, the only one taken in the 1st round this year was the final pick of the round, Kevin Matthews. Again, a bit of a surprise as Larry Greene or Dwight Smith were thought to be the 1st GA HS players on most boards. But, Matthews is a big lefty with a 90+ fastball, and will probably never make it to UVA now.
An interesting article today by Tom Verducci talks about some of the great draft classes of all-time, with 2005 coming in #1. A more recent class, though, has a chance to get into the top 5 in the next few years, the draft class of 2009.
That class already has had 4 starting pitchers make their debut and show signs of becoming a front line starter (Strasburg, Minor, Alex White, and Mike Leake). Drew Storen and Aaron Crow are dominant relievers, while #6 pick Zach Wheeler is rapidly moving through the Giants system. As for hitters, Dustin Ackley will be at the top of the Mariners batting order soon and Mike Trout, arguably the top prospect in the game was the 25th pick in '09.
Andrew Oliver and DJ LeMahieu have also made their big-league debuts as 2nd round picks, and many other HS players (Donovan Tate, Jacob Turner, and Tyler Maztek) all have been as advertised in the minors.
One final note that was a bit odd was all the college players the Braves took. After taking so many High Schoolers with their 1st few picks over the years (Chipper, Freeman, Heyward, McCann, etc), Atlanta took a college player with their 1st 11 picks this year...
Biggest surprises in Round 1 in my eyes were Cory Spangenberg from Indian River State CC at #10. A solid bat and pretty versatile, but not the type of talent you want in the top 10. Also, the Mets taking Brandon Nimmo at #13 was a bit of a surprise as he wasn't viewed by most as a top 25 prospect.
The Braves also had a surprising pick at #28 in FSU LHP Sean Gilmartin, likely due to Robert Stephenson being taken by the Reds the pick before. I was hoping for Mikie Mahtook, who had dropped when a few unlikely pitchers jumped into the 1st round. Hopefully, Gilmartin will work out like Mike Minor, a pick I questioned as well.
That same draft was when the curious decision by Matt Purke was made after he was the 14th pick by Texas. Purke turned down 4 million to go to TCU and struggled this year with velocity and injuries, and was drafted by Washington in the 3rd round. He will likely be looking for a multi-million dollar contract, even at pick 96, or head back to TCU for another year and hope to get his stock back up if the money isn't there.
After a huge run on GA high school players in the 1st round the past few years, the only one taken in the 1st round this year was the final pick of the round, Kevin Matthews. Again, a bit of a surprise as Larry Greene or Dwight Smith were thought to be the 1st GA HS players on most boards. But, Matthews is a big lefty with a 90+ fastball, and will probably never make it to UVA now.
An interesting article today by Tom Verducci talks about some of the great draft classes of all-time, with 2005 coming in #1. A more recent class, though, has a chance to get into the top 5 in the next few years, the draft class of 2009.
That class already has had 4 starting pitchers make their debut and show signs of becoming a front line starter (Strasburg, Minor, Alex White, and Mike Leake). Drew Storen and Aaron Crow are dominant relievers, while #6 pick Zach Wheeler is rapidly moving through the Giants system. As for hitters, Dustin Ackley will be at the top of the Mariners batting order soon and Mike Trout, arguably the top prospect in the game was the 25th pick in '09.
Andrew Oliver and DJ LeMahieu have also made their big-league debuts as 2nd round picks, and many other HS players (Donovan Tate, Jacob Turner, and Tyler Maztek) all have been as advertised in the minors.
One final note that was a bit odd was all the college players the Braves took. After taking so many High Schoolers with their 1st few picks over the years (Chipper, Freeman, Heyward, McCann, etc), Atlanta took a college player with their 1st 11 picks this year...
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Top 5 Centers
With Shaq retiring, there has been a debate on TV and the interwebs about the top 5 centers of all-time. The word used to describe Shaq the most often during his career was "dominant," and Shaq was certainly that.
I have a problem with Bill Russell being mentioned as #1 by some people because you can't just look at the 9 championships. He is certainly a top 5 guy as he was the best defensive center of all-time and owned the glass, but not #1. Having the greatest GM/Coach of all-time, Bob Cousy, Tom Heinsohn, Sam Jones, and others around him along with there just being 8 franchises competing for a ring keeps him out of the top spot.
Some guys need rings to solidify their place in history. Kobe Bryant desperately needed to win a title without Shaq because he hadn't done it as "the man." There were at least a dozen players that would have won titles with the dominant Shaq from 00-02. LeBron needs one, but the number of titles doesn't mean you were a greater player than someone with a few less. However, I think you do need at least 1 to get into the discussion of greatest of all-time (see Dirk right now).
5. Hakeem Olajuwon - Hakeem has 2 rings (Finals MVP in both) and is top 10 all-time in points and just outside the top 10 in rebounds. He is considered the blocks leader, but blocks were not a calculated stat until the mid-70's. Olajuwon edged out George Mikan for the 5th spot due to his level of competition at the center position in the late 40's-mid 50's even though Mikan's 5 titles trump Hakeem's 2.
4. Shaquille O'Neal - Shaq gets on the list at #4 after winning 4 titles (3 MVP's) and finishing 5th all time in scoring. He is also 12th in rebounds and his run from 93-03 was the most dominant 10 year stretch anyone produced since the Russell/Wilt era.
3. Bill Russell - The greatest defensive center of all-time, Russell was a mammoth on the boards with over 20,000 career. Russell won 9 rings and was the force in the paint that the Celtics of the early to mid 50's lacked. He is 2nd all-time in rebounds and a 5 time MVP.
2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar - Kareem won 6 titles (2 MVP's) and 6 MVP awards en route to becoming the league's all-time leading scorer. He also is 3rd on the all-time list in rebounds and blocks.
1. Wilt Chamberlain - Wilt only won 2 titles, but that was mostly because he went up against Russell and his All-NBA teammates throughout his career. Swap Wilt with Russell and he wins at least a dozen championships. He was both a defensive presence, dominant offensive force, and all-around freak athlete. He is the NBA all-time leader in rebounds, 4 time MVP, 4th in points, and once led the league in assists just because naysayers said he didn't pass enough.
I have a problem with Bill Russell being mentioned as #1 by some people because you can't just look at the 9 championships. He is certainly a top 5 guy as he was the best defensive center of all-time and owned the glass, but not #1. Having the greatest GM/Coach of all-time, Bob Cousy, Tom Heinsohn, Sam Jones, and others around him along with there just being 8 franchises competing for a ring keeps him out of the top spot.
Some guys need rings to solidify their place in history. Kobe Bryant desperately needed to win a title without Shaq because he hadn't done it as "the man." There were at least a dozen players that would have won titles with the dominant Shaq from 00-02. LeBron needs one, but the number of titles doesn't mean you were a greater player than someone with a few less. However, I think you do need at least 1 to get into the discussion of greatest of all-time (see Dirk right now).
5. Hakeem Olajuwon - Hakeem has 2 rings (Finals MVP in both) and is top 10 all-time in points and just outside the top 10 in rebounds. He is considered the blocks leader, but blocks were not a calculated stat until the mid-70's. Olajuwon edged out George Mikan for the 5th spot due to his level of competition at the center position in the late 40's-mid 50's even though Mikan's 5 titles trump Hakeem's 2.
4. Shaquille O'Neal - Shaq gets on the list at #4 after winning 4 titles (3 MVP's) and finishing 5th all time in scoring. He is also 12th in rebounds and his run from 93-03 was the most dominant 10 year stretch anyone produced since the Russell/Wilt era.
3. Bill Russell - The greatest defensive center of all-time, Russell was a mammoth on the boards with over 20,000 career. Russell won 9 rings and was the force in the paint that the Celtics of the early to mid 50's lacked. He is 2nd all-time in rebounds and a 5 time MVP.
2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar - Kareem won 6 titles (2 MVP's) and 6 MVP awards en route to becoming the league's all-time leading scorer. He also is 3rd on the all-time list in rebounds and blocks.
1. Wilt Chamberlain - Wilt only won 2 titles, but that was mostly because he went up against Russell and his All-NBA teammates throughout his career. Swap Wilt with Russell and he wins at least a dozen championships. He was both a defensive presence, dominant offensive force, and all-around freak athlete. He is the NBA all-time leader in rebounds, 4 time MVP, 4th in points, and once led the league in assists just because naysayers said he didn't pass enough.
Friday, May 13, 2011
5 up and 5 down in the MLB draft
Today’s entry takes a look at the MLB draft, which is just a few weeks away. The detailed players below are all considered potential 1st round picks, but some have more issues than others. The following 5 that are up are players that I think will eventually be at least solid, everyday MLB players. The 5 down will struggle to make the big leagues or won’t live up to their draft hype.
Up
Jed Bradley – The Georgia Tech left-hander has been spectacular this season and has incredible stuff. He has had a great season as a starter for the Jackets, posting a 2.63 ERA and 83 K’s in just 77 innings. Should be in a big-league rotation by 2014.
Mikey Mahtook – I am really high on Mahtook and think he is worthy of a top-5 pick. Most mock drafts have him going in the mid-to-late 1st round, but I am not sure what the hesitation is on him. He is a 5 tool outfielder that can hit for power and really run. His is a big league everyday player in 2013.
Bubba Starling – Bubba is a 6’5 freak-athlete that will use his football scholarship to Nebraska as leverage for a huge signing bonus. He is a center fielder with a 95 MPH arm that has great raw power and a polished swing. Once he focuses on baseball full-time, he will become a mega-prospect. Estimated MLB arrival for Bubba is 2015.
Taylor Jungmann – Taylor has been just about un-hittable this year for the Longhorns. In his 12 starts, he has 11 wins, no losses, and 3 shutouts. He has only allowed 73 base runners in 95+ innings while recording 90 strikeouts. A 6’6 lanky right-hander, Jungmann has the build and arm to be a #1-#2 MLB starting pitcher with an ETA of 2014.
Andrew Susac – Another player I really like, Susac could be a big league catcher with few offensive skills than he currently possesses. Susac is excellent behind the plate and also leads OSU with a .359 average and a .487 OBP.
Down
Gerritt Cole – A likely #1-#2 pick, I am very leery of Cole in this draft. The UCLA right-hander has unreal stuff, it just hasn’t produced unreal results. Cole is 5-5 for the Bruins and has had some impressive outings. But at the same time, he has had some shaky outings and has given up 6 HR’s and as many base runners as innings pitched this season. Could be a big-leaguer but not only do I not think he is a top 15 prospect, I don’t think he is the best pitching prospect on his team (Trevor Bauer).
Anthony Rendon – Rendon, another likely #1-#2 pick, is also not worthy of that high of a selection. Rendon is certainly a good prospect and has hit .327-4-29 with most teams pitching around him (66 walks in 49 games), but I want an Evan Longoria type third-basemen with a top 1-2 pick. Rendon looks like a potential future big-leaguer, but not one worthy of a 8 million + signing bonus and the top pick.
Jackie Bradley, Jr – Bradley is an interesting prospect because his stock was so high last season when USC won the national title. He was an integral part of that team and has all 5 tools. The knock on Jackie, though, is that he does not have an elite tool. Not a future MLB player in my opinion, but has enough skills to be worth a pick at some point.
Matt Purke – The tale of Purke’s draft hold-out from 2 years ago was chronicled in this blog entry. The decision to turn down 3+ million from the Rangers as the 14th pick was questioned then, and even more so now. A consensus top 3 pick after last season, when he was dominant in leading TCU to the CWS, Purke has struggled with injuries, command, and velocity all season. After going 16-0 with 142 K’s as a freshman, Purke has just 8 starts in 2011 and now has a sore shoulder. As a draft-eligible sophomore, Purke has dropped from a top 3 pick to a late-1st rounder, and I don’t think his risk is even worth a pick until after the 1st round.
Anthony Meo – Meo currently sports a 2.41 ERA in 12 starts for Coastal Carolina, but his velocity has been a question mark all season. At one point considered an elite prospect as a mind-90’s starter, Meo has been 89-91 at times this year and not quite as dominant like a 1st round college pitcher should be. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but the lack of consistent command has me questioning his future as a MLB player.
Up
Jed Bradley – The Georgia Tech left-hander has been spectacular this season and has incredible stuff. He has had a great season as a starter for the Jackets, posting a 2.63 ERA and 83 K’s in just 77 innings. Should be in a big-league rotation by 2014.
Mikey Mahtook – I am really high on Mahtook and think he is worthy of a top-5 pick. Most mock drafts have him going in the mid-to-late 1st round, but I am not sure what the hesitation is on him. He is a 5 tool outfielder that can hit for power and really run. His is a big league everyday player in 2013.
Bubba Starling – Bubba is a 6’5 freak-athlete that will use his football scholarship to Nebraska as leverage for a huge signing bonus. He is a center fielder with a 95 MPH arm that has great raw power and a polished swing. Once he focuses on baseball full-time, he will become a mega-prospect. Estimated MLB arrival for Bubba is 2015.
Taylor Jungmann – Taylor has been just about un-hittable this year for the Longhorns. In his 12 starts, he has 11 wins, no losses, and 3 shutouts. He has only allowed 73 base runners in 95+ innings while recording 90 strikeouts. A 6’6 lanky right-hander, Jungmann has the build and arm to be a #1-#2 MLB starting pitcher with an ETA of 2014.
Andrew Susac – Another player I really like, Susac could be a big league catcher with few offensive skills than he currently possesses. Susac is excellent behind the plate and also leads OSU with a .359 average and a .487 OBP.
Down
Gerritt Cole – A likely #1-#2 pick, I am very leery of Cole in this draft. The UCLA right-hander has unreal stuff, it just hasn’t produced unreal results. Cole is 5-5 for the Bruins and has had some impressive outings. But at the same time, he has had some shaky outings and has given up 6 HR’s and as many base runners as innings pitched this season. Could be a big-leaguer but not only do I not think he is a top 15 prospect, I don’t think he is the best pitching prospect on his team (Trevor Bauer).
Anthony Rendon – Rendon, another likely #1-#2 pick, is also not worthy of that high of a selection. Rendon is certainly a good prospect and has hit .327-4-29 with most teams pitching around him (66 walks in 49 games), but I want an Evan Longoria type third-basemen with a top 1-2 pick. Rendon looks like a potential future big-leaguer, but not one worthy of a 8 million + signing bonus and the top pick.
Jackie Bradley, Jr – Bradley is an interesting prospect because his stock was so high last season when USC won the national title. He was an integral part of that team and has all 5 tools. The knock on Jackie, though, is that he does not have an elite tool. Not a future MLB player in my opinion, but has enough skills to be worth a pick at some point.
Matt Purke – The tale of Purke’s draft hold-out from 2 years ago was chronicled in this blog entry. The decision to turn down 3+ million from the Rangers as the 14th pick was questioned then, and even more so now. A consensus top 3 pick after last season, when he was dominant in leading TCU to the CWS, Purke has struggled with injuries, command, and velocity all season. After going 16-0 with 142 K’s as a freshman, Purke has just 8 starts in 2011 and now has a sore shoulder. As a draft-eligible sophomore, Purke has dropped from a top 3 pick to a late-1st rounder, and I don’t think his risk is even worth a pick until after the 1st round.
Anthony Meo – Meo currently sports a 2.41 ERA in 12 starts for Coastal Carolina, but his velocity has been a question mark all season. At one point considered an elite prospect as a mind-90’s starter, Meo has been 89-91 at times this year and not quite as dominant like a 1st round college pitcher should be. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but the lack of consistent command has me questioning his future as a MLB player.
The numbers don’t lie…
Now that the Hawks-Bulls series went down just like it was predicted here, let’s take a look at exactly what went wrong for Atlanta after heading to Game 5 tied 2-2. The issues that have been brought up on TV, radio, blogs, etc usually involved Josh Smith’s shot selection, Al Horford’s poor shooting, failure to rebound, and poor perimeter defense.
But, I think there is a stat that most are overlooking…Josh shot 13-29 in Games 5/6, which isn’t terrible. Al did struggle, shooting 8-23 and missing many open looks. The rebounding margin was in the Bulls favor for these 2 games, but only 72-68. D-Rose shot 50% (19-38) and played well, but that was expected.
Atlanta needed to score to beat Chicago, and they failed to do so. Part of it was Josh Smith’s shot selection, part was Horford’s poor shooting, but most of all it was the inability to knock down long-range jumpers. Chicago plays really good defense from 15 feet in, but the Hawks were able to get many good looks from 3 point range. They just couldn’t make any of them…
Here is the 3 point shot breakdown for the series.
Game 1 (ATL win) - 7/13 (53.8%)
Game 2 (ATL loss) – 3/13 (23.1%)
Game 3 (ATL loss) – 1/6 (16.7%)
Game 4 (ATL win) – 4/11 (36.4%)
Game 5 (ATL loss) – 1/12 (8.3%)
Game 6 (ATL loss) – 1/11 (9.1%)
So, for the series, in the 2 Hawks wins they were 11/24 from 3 (45.8%). In the 4 losses, the team shot 6/42 (14.2%).
Although unlikely, just to give some perspective on these numbers, if the Hawks had made the same percentage of 3’s in the 4 losses as they did in their 2 wins, that would equal to 13 more made 3 pointers, or 39 points. They lost Games 5/6 by a combined 32 points…
But, I think there is a stat that most are overlooking…Josh shot 13-29 in Games 5/6, which isn’t terrible. Al did struggle, shooting 8-23 and missing many open looks. The rebounding margin was in the Bulls favor for these 2 games, but only 72-68. D-Rose shot 50% (19-38) and played well, but that was expected.
Atlanta needed to score to beat Chicago, and they failed to do so. Part of it was Josh Smith’s shot selection, part was Horford’s poor shooting, but most of all it was the inability to knock down long-range jumpers. Chicago plays really good defense from 15 feet in, but the Hawks were able to get many good looks from 3 point range. They just couldn’t make any of them…
Here is the 3 point shot breakdown for the series.
Game 1 (ATL win) - 7/13 (53.8%)
Game 2 (ATL loss) – 3/13 (23.1%)
Game 3 (ATL loss) – 1/6 (16.7%)
Game 4 (ATL win) – 4/11 (36.4%)
Game 5 (ATL loss) – 1/12 (8.3%)
Game 6 (ATL loss) – 1/11 (9.1%)
So, for the series, in the 2 Hawks wins they were 11/24 from 3 (45.8%). In the 4 losses, the team shot 6/42 (14.2%).
Although unlikely, just to give some perspective on these numbers, if the Hawks had made the same percentage of 3’s in the 4 losses as they did in their 2 wins, that would equal to 13 more made 3 pointers, or 39 points. They lost Games 5/6 by a combined 32 points…
Monday, May 9, 2011
The state of the Braves...
The Braves are just a series away from being right at the 25% mark of the season, which is just about enough to analyze the team and their chances to win the World Series.
Let's break the team down so far:
Starting Pitching
Clearly the strength of the team, the rotation has been as advertised. Further, young arms Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are about big league ready in AAA, as is veteran Rodrigo Lopez. This depth certainly gives Frank Wren some flexibility in June and July if he chooses to make any upgrades. The numbers through 5/8...
Jurrjens - 4-0 1.50
Hanson - 4-3 2.63
Hudson - 4-2 2.86
Lowe - 3-3 3.32
Beachy - 1-1 2.98
Relief Pitching
Jonny Venters is pretty much un-hittable out of the pen and Craig Kimbrel looks like he will be extremely solid as the closer. The bullpen misses Pete Moylan right now, but Eric O'Flaherty has been lights out. The rest of the pen, veterans Linebrink/Sherrill, and the young arms have been better than expected.
Lineup
There are too many All-Stars (Prado, Jones, McCann, Heyward, Uggla) in this lineup for the slow start to last too long. The recent wave of offense was inevitable with the Braves bats. Even McLouth got in on the action and Freddie Freeman has looked the part at 1st.
Chipper looks good, McCann/Prado/Heyward will all be fine, and Uggla will end up around .250/260 with his 30+ HR's.
Defense
The defense has been extremely solid, with Dan Uggla being better than expected and Alex Gonzalez going bonkers. McLouth has been solid in center and Prado's transition to left has been flawless.
So, what can they do to improve?
Let's speculate for a minute on what the team can do to improve. It looks like the top teams from last year will be in the hunt all season (SF, Col, Philly, Cincy, StL) and Florida has been on a torrid pace since early April. If Frank Wren chooses to upgrade around the trade deadline, where should he look?
1) Bullpen - while the bullpen is above average, you can always use another strong arm to shorten games in September and October. One of the likely available bullpen arms this summer is SD's Heath Bell. One of the top closers in the game, Bell's addition would turn the Braves pen into the games best.
2) Center Field - I know McLouth has been hot lately and is currently in the top 25 in the NL in average and OBP, but I say this is a spot to upgrade as there are options and Nate's stock is finally back up a bit. The name here for the upgrade that I think if Wren chooses to make a move is Hunter Pence. The Astros will be looking to acquire young talent, and Pence is their best trading piece. The Bravos would have the money with Chipper's likely retirement to sign him to an extension and solidify the lineup for many years. A McLouth/Minor package with maybe a lower level prospect or 2 may do the trick.
Pence would also give the team another top of the order bat and allow Freddie Gonzalez to move Heyward down in the order as he wanted to do in Spring Training. Pence is currently hitting .297/4/27 and his 27 RBI are 3rd in the NL.
How about this lineup?
Pence
Prado
Jones
McCann
Uggla
Heyward
Gonzalez
Freeman
Pretty dang good. But, either way, I like this teams chances to get in the playoffs, as well as advance pretty far...
Let's break the team down so far:
Starting Pitching
Clearly the strength of the team, the rotation has been as advertised. Further, young arms Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are about big league ready in AAA, as is veteran Rodrigo Lopez. This depth certainly gives Frank Wren some flexibility in June and July if he chooses to make any upgrades. The numbers through 5/8...
Jurrjens - 4-0 1.50
Hanson - 4-3 2.63
Hudson - 4-2 2.86
Lowe - 3-3 3.32
Beachy - 1-1 2.98
Relief Pitching
Jonny Venters is pretty much un-hittable out of the pen and Craig Kimbrel looks like he will be extremely solid as the closer. The bullpen misses Pete Moylan right now, but Eric O'Flaherty has been lights out. The rest of the pen, veterans Linebrink/Sherrill, and the young arms have been better than expected.
Lineup
There are too many All-Stars (Prado, Jones, McCann, Heyward, Uggla) in this lineup for the slow start to last too long. The recent wave of offense was inevitable with the Braves bats. Even McLouth got in on the action and Freddie Freeman has looked the part at 1st.
Chipper looks good, McCann/Prado/Heyward will all be fine, and Uggla will end up around .250/260 with his 30+ HR's.
Defense
The defense has been extremely solid, with Dan Uggla being better than expected and Alex Gonzalez going bonkers. McLouth has been solid in center and Prado's transition to left has been flawless.
So, what can they do to improve?
Let's speculate for a minute on what the team can do to improve. It looks like the top teams from last year will be in the hunt all season (SF, Col, Philly, Cincy, StL) and Florida has been on a torrid pace since early April. If Frank Wren chooses to upgrade around the trade deadline, where should he look?
1) Bullpen - while the bullpen is above average, you can always use another strong arm to shorten games in September and October. One of the likely available bullpen arms this summer is SD's Heath Bell. One of the top closers in the game, Bell's addition would turn the Braves pen into the games best.
2) Center Field - I know McLouth has been hot lately and is currently in the top 25 in the NL in average and OBP, but I say this is a spot to upgrade as there are options and Nate's stock is finally back up a bit. The name here for the upgrade that I think if Wren chooses to make a move is Hunter Pence. The Astros will be looking to acquire young talent, and Pence is their best trading piece. The Bravos would have the money with Chipper's likely retirement to sign him to an extension and solidify the lineup for many years. A McLouth/Minor package with maybe a lower level prospect or 2 may do the trick.
Pence would also give the team another top of the order bat and allow Freddie Gonzalez to move Heyward down in the order as he wanted to do in Spring Training. Pence is currently hitting .297/4/27 and his 27 RBI are 3rd in the NL.
How about this lineup?
Pence
Prado
Jones
McCann
Uggla
Heyward
Gonzalez
Freeman
Pretty dang good. But, either way, I like this teams chances to get in the playoffs, as well as advance pretty far...
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
The state of the Hawks...
Since there will be almost zero talk of the Hawks impressive 103-95 win in Game 1 last night amongst the national sports media, lets discuss here what the win means and how it happened.
First, think for a second if the Knicks had the same post-season as the Hawks so far. You wouldn't be able to find a sports channel where an analyst wasn't discussing their NBA title chances.
The Hawks are winning games the way good teams win playoff games: Strong, physical play inside and clutch jump shooting. As long as Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are knocking down shots, the Hawks have a shot in this series. The issues the team has, such as perimeter defense without Hinrich, poor shot selection, and more miserable performances from Marvin Williams (these 2010 numbers are still par for Marvin), but the way last night unfolded was perfect.
Jeff Teague did what he had to do at point guard, knocking down runners and a jumper or two. Josh Smith is still having trouble with shot selection, and his attacking the basket could be the key to Game 2, as Joe and Jamal will certainly get more attention.
So, how did the team flip the switch like they did after their poor finish? Simple. Since the Hawks get no attention around the country, no one considered that this team on April 2nd was 4 games out of 4th and 5 games up on 6th place in the standings and knew where they stood for the playoffs. Smith, Johnson, and company played minutes in the 20's (when not taking the entire game off) and they played the final 6 games getting themselves in shape for the playoffs.
Remember, this is a veteran team now that has played over 30 playoff games since 2008 together. They know what it takes to win in the playoffs, have experienced the bad losses, and are currently stepping their game up at the right time.
I definitely feel better about the Hawks chances in this series now, but I still think they will struggle in the long run without Hinrich. However, Game 2 is now a pressure-off game for Atlanta, and another shooting performance by Joe/Jamal could put the team in a position to reach a place the franchise has never been, the Eastern Conference Finals...
First, think for a second if the Knicks had the same post-season as the Hawks so far. You wouldn't be able to find a sports channel where an analyst wasn't discussing their NBA title chances.
The Hawks are winning games the way good teams win playoff games: Strong, physical play inside and clutch jump shooting. As long as Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are knocking down shots, the Hawks have a shot in this series. The issues the team has, such as perimeter defense without Hinrich, poor shot selection, and more miserable performances from Marvin Williams (these 2010 numbers are still par for Marvin), but the way last night unfolded was perfect.
Jeff Teague did what he had to do at point guard, knocking down runners and a jumper or two. Josh Smith is still having trouble with shot selection, and his attacking the basket could be the key to Game 2, as Joe and Jamal will certainly get more attention.
So, how did the team flip the switch like they did after their poor finish? Simple. Since the Hawks get no attention around the country, no one considered that this team on April 2nd was 4 games out of 4th and 5 games up on 6th place in the standings and knew where they stood for the playoffs. Smith, Johnson, and company played minutes in the 20's (when not taking the entire game off) and they played the final 6 games getting themselves in shape for the playoffs.
Remember, this is a veteran team now that has played over 30 playoff games since 2008 together. They know what it takes to win in the playoffs, have experienced the bad losses, and are currently stepping their game up at the right time.
I definitely feel better about the Hawks chances in this series now, but I still think they will struggle in the long run without Hinrich. However, Game 2 is now a pressure-off game for Atlanta, and another shooting performance by Joe/Jamal could put the team in a position to reach a place the franchise has never been, the Eastern Conference Finals...
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