Sunday, November 9, 2014

11/9 College Football Poll

1.   Miss St
2.  Florida St
3.  Alabama
4.   Baylor
5.   TCU
6.   Oregon
7.   Arizona St
8.   Auburn
9.   Mississippi
10.  Ohio St
11.  Kansas St
12.  Nebraska
13.  Notre Dame
14.  LSU
15.  Michigan St
16.  UCLA
17.  Texas A&M
18.  Wisconsin
19.  Georgia
20.  Clemson
21.  Arizona
22.  Utah
23.  USC
24.  Duke
25.  Oklahoma

Sunday, November 2, 2014

11/2 Poll

1).   Miss St
2).   Florida St
3).   Auburn
4).   Kansas St
5).   Notre Dame
6).   Alabama
7).   Baylor
8).   TCU
9).   Oregon
10). Michigan St
11).  LSU
12). Mississippi
14). Oklahoma
15)  Arizona St
16). Utah
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Wisconsin
20). Georgia

21). Clemson

22).  UCLA
23).  Arizona
24).  USC
25).  Duke

Sunday, October 26, 2014

College Football notes 10/26

The 1st rankings for the College Football playoff are set to be released, and it is time as we enter November next weekend to look at who the Final 4 will be for the 2014 season.  The main arguing points look to be whether or not to place conference champions in over non conference champions with better resumes.

As of now, the candidates appear to be:

The SEC West champ - I think the winner of this division will have 1 or fewer losses and should be in regardless of the result in the SEC Championship game.

The SEC East champ - If it's Georgia, they could lose to Auburn, win the East with 2 losses, and have a shot to get in by winning the SEC.

The SEC West runner up - If Miss State wins the SECW and the Auburn-Alabama winner has 1 loss, they should represent a second SEC bid.

One loss Big 10 champ - If it's Michigan St or Ohio St, there's definitely a chance the Big 10 gets a bid.  Michigan State needs to win out, have Oregon lose again, and have the SEC West winner win the SEC.

One loss PAC 12 champ - This will probably have to be Oregon on the strength of their win over Michigan St.  Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah all have 1 loss from the South, but have to play each other and Arizona St has Notre Dame as well.

Florida State - Should win out easily and will likely be #1 seed for the playoff.

Notre Dame - Will have the best loss of 1 loss teams if they win out, still have USC and Arizona St

The Big 12 Champ - A 1 loss Big 12 Champ would definitely be in the mix as well, but don't count on it being Kansas State as they still have trips to WVU, Baylor, and TCU.  The Horned Frogs have a great shot at getting in position for the Final Four with a win over WVU next week.

So worst case scenario for Big 12/PAC 12/Big 10 fans is unbeaten Miss St wins SEC Champ game, 1 loss Auburn beats Alabama, and FSU/Notre Dame win out.  I think that would put us with:

1). Miss St
2). FSU
3). Auburn
4). Notre Dame

I assume the committee will try and avoid rematches in the 1st round like 2 SECs or FSU/ND.

If there are no 0 or 1 loss SEC teams besides the champ and Notre Dame loses to say, Arizona St, that opens up spots for potential 1 loss champs from Big 10/PAC 12/Big 12.  We could have this scenario:

1). FSU
2). Alabama
3). TCU
4). Oregon

This is where my "Michigan St needs Oregon to lose" comment comes into play.  If they both have 1 loss, it's an easy choice for the committee to put Oregon in on the strength of their H2H win.Michigan St

Still lots of possibilities, I say there are still 17-18 teams that have a legitimate shot at the Final Four if they win out.

Heisman Poll 10/26

1).  Dak Prescott
2).  Melvin Gordon
3).  Ameer Abdullah
4).  Marcus Mariota
5).  Nick Marshall

Top 25 10/26

1).   Miss St
2).   Florida St
3).   Notre Dame
4).   Auburn
5).   Mississippi
6).   Alabama
7).   Kansas St
8).   Baylor
9).   TCU
10). Arizona
11). Oregon
12). Michigan St
13). Georgia
14). LSU
15)  Nebraska
16). Oklahoma
17). West Virginia
18). Ohio St
19). Clemson
20). Arizona St
21). Utah
22). Wisconsin
23). UCLA
24). USC
25). Stanford

Sunday, October 12, 2014

10/12 Poll and Heisman Ballot

Heisman Ballot:

1). Dak Prescott
2). Melvin Gordon
3). Marcus Mariota
4). Ameer Abdullah
5). Bryce Petty


1).  Mississippi St
2).  Mississippi
3).  Baylor
4).  Florida St
5).  Notre Dame
6).  Auburn
7).  Alabama
8).  TCU
9).  Oklahoma
10)  Texas A&M
11). Arizona
12). Oregon
13). Michigan St
14). Oklahoma St
15). Georgia
16). Kansas St
17). West Virginia
18). Minnesota
19). LSU
20). Clemson
21). Arizona St
22). USC
23). Stanford
24). Nebraska
25). Washington

Sunday, October 5, 2014

10/5 Poll

1.   Auburn
2.   Mississippi St
3.  TCU
4.   Florida St
5.   Mississippi
6.   Baylor
7.   Notre Dame
8.   Arizona
9.   Oregon
10. Alabama
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma St
15. Michigan St
16. Kansas St
17. Nebraska
18. Clemson
19. Ohio St
20. Utah
21. LSU
22. UCLA
23. California
24. Arkansas
25. Missouri

Sunday, September 28, 2014

College Football Top 25

Now is the time to truly get a sense of our top 25 teams, and it's wide open as usual heading into October.

1.   Oklahoma
2.   Auburn
3.   Oregon
4.   Alabama
5.   Florida St
6.   Texas A&M
7.    Baylor
8.    UCLA
9.    Mississippi St
10.  Michigan St
11.  Notre Dame
12.  Mississippi
13.  Oklahoma St
14.  Georgia
15.  BYU
16.  LSU
17.  Wisconsin
18.  Nebraska
19.  USC
20.  Stanford
21.  Kansas St
22.  Clemson
23.  Arizona
24.  Arkansas
25.  Ohio St

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The fall of the Big 10

The fall of the Big 10 is now complete.  The once power conference, who had a run throughout much of college football history where you argue their supremacy over other conferences,  has reached rock bottom.  Once a threat to compete for the #1 final ranking year in and year out, the Big 10 is now no more than an afterthought.

The conference started winning national titles in the early 1900's and continued to churn out champs every few years until this recent stretch.  The last title was the 2002 Ohio State team, and before them Michigan and Penn State claimed trophies in the 90's.  We started to see the decline when mid-2000's Buckeye teams were manhandled by the likes of Florida and LSU in BCS Title games.  The downward slide in quality of teams became more apparent the last couple of years with only 2 Rose Bowl wins since 2000.  Michigan has been in decline for some time now, and the addition of former power Nebraska has done about as much to boost the conferences depth as Miami has in the ACC. 

But after yesterday, we can comfortably say the league is nationally insignificant.  Sure, Penn State-Ohio State and Nebraska-Wisconsin will have some meaning in the mid-west, but not much interest anywhere else.  For those that missed it, a quick run-down of the Big 10's results from yesterday by category of disaster.

Group 1 - The "Top Tier" teams

1)  Michigan State played well in Eugene and looked ready to make a statement, but Oregon outscored MSU 28-3 in the 2nd half and routed the Spartans.

2)  Michigan failed to compete against Notre Dame, failing to score (after putting up 41 last year) and being humiliated by the Irish 31-0.

3)  Pre-Season favorite Ohio State followed up their sluggish performance against Navy by getting rolled by Virginia Tech at home, 35-21.

4)  Northwestern, a team thought to be on the rise, fell to 0-2 after losing at home to Northern Illinois.

5)  Wisconsin rolled over FCS Western Illinois, but their collapse against LSU in Week 1 was magnified by the above results in week 2.  The league really needed that win to point to after yesterdays results.

Group 2 - The "They've been good, maybe they are better this year" teams (spoiler alert:  They aren't)

1)  Nebraska needed a 58 yard TD with 20 seconds left to hold off FCS McNeese State.

2)  Iowa scored with a minute to play to take their 1st lead of the game and beat Ball State 17-13

3)  More MAC problems for Purdue, who were blitzed by Central Michigan 38-17

4)  Maryland turned the ball over 6 times against USF (who beat FCS Western Carolina 36-31 in week 1) but came back to win 24-17.

Group 3 - The "there's no way they are that bad" teams

1)  Rutgers followed up a decent win over Wazzu last week with an ugly 38-25 win over FCS Howard, who were beaten by Akron 41-0 in week 1.

2)  Minnesota looks OK from the outside at 2-0, but an 11 point win over MTSU when your QB completes 6 passes (1 to the Blue Raiders) for 67 yards is certainly alarming.

Group 4 - The "Please God let them keep winning so we can have a team in the top 25" tea

1)  Penn State is 2-0 with a quality win over UCF. 

There's your good news, Big 10 are counting on Penn State.

There was a time when the Big 10 was a league of big, tough, fast studs that could go head to head with anybody, anywhere.  But that time has come and gone.

You should all be ashamed of yourselves....

All of you.   I don't know how many there are, but more than just a few voters clearly don't understand how to vote in the top 25.  The USA Today poll came out today and Ohio State is ranked #18 and Virginia Tech is #19.  Are you serious?  They just played, and VT beat OSU handily.  So, because in your pre-season poll where you had no idea how good any team actually was, you thought OSU was top 5 and VT was not a top 25 team means you can't drop OSU too far or move VT that far up?

Nonsense.  Everyone who voted OSU ahead of VT clearly doesn't have a clue and should be stripped of their vote.  You should all be ashamed of yourselves.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

How to vote in a College Football Poll

There will always be preseason college football polls.  As ridiculous as they are, they produce things that media outlets such as ESPN love:  web clicks, debate topics, and reveal shows.  The new committee that will decide the sports first "Final 4" later this year won't announce their 1st poll until late October, and that's really the only poll that matters.  Nevertheless, if we are forced to see numbers next to a schools name in September, let's at least vote the correct way.

Here is the list of rules all voters should follow:

1)  Watch multiple games each Saturday from multiple conferences
2)  Don't give unwarranted credit to a team you picked high in the preseason
3)  Don't ever rank a team behind a team it has beaten, especially if they have a better record (see rule 2)
4)  Don't give unwarranted credit to a team because of how they performed last season
5)  a.  Give credit to those who beat quality opponents
     b.  Don't take credit away when losing while playing well to higher ranked (or unranked) team

So that brings us to Week 1, where the AP Poll heading into Wednesday's opener was:

1)  FSU
2)  Bama
3)  Oregon
4)  Oklahoma
5)  Ohio St
6)  Auburn
7)  UCLA
8)  Michigan St
9)  South Carolina
10) Baylor
11) Stanford
12) Georgia
13) LSU
14) Wisconsin
15) USC
16) Clemson
17) Notre Dame
18) Ole Miss
19) Arizona St
20) Kansas St
21) Texas A&M
22) Nebraska
23) North Carolina
24) Missouri
25) Washington

Heading into Sunday, the only teams to lose in the top 25 were South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Clemson.  South Carolina showed little in their game to deserve a spot for week 2, they will have to play their way back in after losing at home.  Wisconsin (14th) had a 17 point 2nd half lead against the #13 and lost by 4 at a neutral site.  No need to drop Wisconsin because of that performance (see rule 5b).  Clemson lost on the road to a higher ranked team and the game was tied in the 2nd half.  The Tigers are likely to be the toughest to rank this week, as they failed to compete in the 2nd half, giving up 31 straight points.

The others all won, some more impressively than others.  Washington definitely will not return to the poll as they squeaked past Hawaii by a point.  Missouri and North Carolina were very unimpressive in wins over FCS schools, and others dominated weak competition and we still don't know much about them.

As for unranked teams, Oklahoma State absolutely looked the part of a top 25 team in their loss to FSU, which was a one score game.  West Virginia made a strong case too, playing Alabama tough and showing promise on both sides of the ball.  Penn State looked to boast a top 5 QB in the country in their win overseas.  Cal beat up on a good Northwestern team, and Texas/Michigan overwhelmed a couple of over-matched opponents.  All of these unranked teams will receive consideration for the poll this week.   

So, considering there are still 6 teams left to play this week, if I had to release a poll this morning, it would look like this:

1.  Florida State
2.  Texas A&M
3.  Auburn
4.  Oregon
5.  Georgia
6.  Oklahoma
7.  Alabama
8.  Michigan St
9.   LSU
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. UCLA
13. Wisconsin
14. Oklahoma St
15. USC
16. Arizona St
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. Penn State
20. Clemson
21. California
22. Nebraska
23. West Virginia
24. Texas
25. Arizona

It's not that complicated - play well and move up, play poorly and drop.

What needs to stop is teams keeping their ranking just because they won, even if they looked bad in doing so, like UCLA and Ohio State.  No need to place those teams anywhere near the top 5 after what we saw from them.  No need to drop teams just because they lost if they did so to a higher ranked team.  That's the idea of the poll, to rank the teams from best to 25th best, so if #14 loses to #1 by 6 points on a neutral site, why drop them from #14?  Seems like that ranking was appropriate based on the results. 

So rank them yourselves if you wish, and feel free to use the rules I posted above.  If we are always going to have these August and September polls, we might as well do it right.