A few years ago, I thought A-Rod was a shoe-in for 800 home runs. Now, after getting to 600 at age 35, I'm not so sure. It seemed like Bonds went from 500 to 700 in seconds. It has taken A-Rod much, much longer. When he hit 54 in 2007, he was on a solid pace to get to 750 in the 2012 season. Now, he is looking at about 25 for the year in 2010 and 90 away from just getting to 700.
There is a chance A-Rod can reach the 700 mark by the beginning of the 2014 season, but it would be a stretch. At that time, he would be 39 and still 63 away even if he gets to 700. I say he passes Willie rather easily but never reaches Hank.
735 seems like a good number...
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