Monday, July 2, 2012

Atlanta teams talking trade...

The Braves and Hawks, according to reports, have been in deep talks with many different teams as they try to accomplish 2 different things.  The Braves are looking for a veteran arm to put into their top 3, along with Hudson/Hanson, and put Jurrjens and Minor/Delgado/Teheran as the #5 starter.  Although one of the young guys would likely be the piece moved to acquire this veteran arm. 

I would be fine with a deal centered around Delgado and a 2 top offensive prospects like Salcedo/Drury/Terdoslavich for Zach Greinke, but not for Dempster/Vargas/Garza as long as Greinke is signed to an extension when the trade is made.  Payroll is available for a starter as Chipper comes off the payroll and Greinke is the age and has the stuff of a guy I'd be comfortable locking up to a 5/85 type contract.  The team can't move Bethancourt as the McCann issue becomes more iffy.  Brian is a heck of a player and is having a tough season, but I still don't think his market value will be a good investment for the club, especially with a top prospect in the minors. 

The other option is to move Medlen into the rotation, but I still believe he will be a key 7th/8th inning guy down the stretch, especially if Venters can't work out his erratic outings.  The key to making a big move here though is you get the right guy (Greinke) and lock him up long-term.  As we all know, the Teixeira deal has a lot of fans scared at pulling the trigger on a deal like this as Andrus/Feliz/Harrison have all made All-Star teams and Salty came dang close this year...

The Hawks on the other hand aren't interested in dealing players for the purpose of getting better, but clearing future payroll obligations to help re-build the team.  New GM Danny Ferry seems to have the mindset that he will build the team and he needs to shed some players in order to have the financial flexibility to do so.  The speculated Joe Johnson deal, which would net Atlanta Petro/J.Williams/Farmar/Morrow would likely decrease the teams expected win total for 12/13, but give them just Teague/Horford/Jenkins and Marvin's player option as their obligations for 13/14.  That would give Ferry 35+ million to work with to re-sign Josh and explore other free agents. 

However, this is all based on moving Joe and his awful contract.  What makes the contract bad wasn't year 1 or 2, or even this year or next.  It's 13/14 and 14/15 when he will be making 23-25 million per year in his mid-30's with bad knees.  If they can get out of these years, they have to do it.

But know that the only way Brooklyn does this deal is if they believe they can use the "Big 3" model and acquire Dwight/Joe along with bringing back Deron Williams.  The Hawks can't get Marshon Brooks, as it is reported they do, because he is part of the Lopez/Brooks/1sts that are going to Orlando for Dwight.  If Brooklyn believes they can get Deron/Dwight, they will gladly take on Joe for their 3rd star and take their chances the next few years with those 3 guys and veterans/ring chasers.

That would give you this team for the 12/13 Hawks

Teague/Farmar
Morrow/Jenkins
Williams/Free Agent
Smith/ZaZa/Ivan
Horford/Petro/JWilliams

Not sure what is going on with Hinrich, but this could be the team...likely a 41-41 team, in my opinion...

4 comments:

Rob said...

Gladly take a no playoff year to get rid of JJ's contract!! Would love the opportunity to rebuild instead of being stuck in the 1st/2nd round playoff exit loop year after year.
As far as Re-signing Josh I don't see him ever playing to his potential in ATL. Deal him now while he has value!

Jeff said...

Part of the "Ferry builds his own Hawks" plan may be to move Josh for a young player and picks. Build through the draft and maybe get 1 big name FA in 13/14.

Andrew said...

How about the harris move? I love it personally Marvin Willams showed basically no improvement in the last 4 years....With that being said do you foresee a potential solid free agent signee, hopefully someone that can play 3?

Jeff said...

Andrew, the Harris move was off the charts good...still not sure how they got rid of owing Marvin 7.5 million in 13/14. As for next years SF, they will likely use the bulk of their MLE to sign a veteran like Matt Barnes/Rashard Lewis/etc...