One of the best events of the year starts tonight, the NFL Draft. After months of speculation, we will finally have the 1st round revealed to us tonight. The Panthers hold the top pick, and after much deliberation, it appears they have settled on Auburn QB Cameron Newton as the top choice. There will be a lot of jockeying for position tonight, as many top prospects at DE and QB will determine trades and picks. Here is the best bet for the draft tonight according to RSM, let's see how many we get right...
1) Carolina - QB Cameron Newton, Auburn - The Panthers think Cam is the franchise QB they need and will take the risk and pick the AU QB.
2) Denver - LB Von Miller, Texas A&M - John Elway seems sold on Miller as his pick at #2. Von should be an elite player and has shot up draft boards the past few months.
3) Buffalo - DE Marcel Dareus, Alabama - Dareus is an absolute monster and played in a 3-4 in college, which should make him an instant starter for the Bills.
4) Cincinnati - WR AJ Green, Georgia - With WR being such a glaring need for the Bengals, their QB situation is put aside and the top WR in the draft becomes an easy pick.
5) Arizona - CB Patrick Peterson, LSU - Peterson is at the top of a lot of team's draft boards, so a trade here may occur. Teams like Houston that need lots of help at corner may give up a bunch of picks in 2011/2012 to grab a cover corner and return man as good as Peterson.
6) Cleveland - DE Robert Quinn, UNC - Although the brain tumor and lack of playing time are concerns, the Browns won't pass on an elite pass rusher like Quinn. There is a chance Julio Jones goes here, as Cleveland needs big-time help at WR, but I think they end up going with RQ.
7) San Francisco - CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska - It appears the 49ers want to go defense with this pick, and they are in desperate need of a corner with Nate Clements getting older and having a large contract. Another spot, like #3, where Blaine Gabbert could go.
8) Tennessee - DT Nick Fairley, Auburn - Fairley has top 3 talent, and some teams question his work ethic and the fact that he played just one year in big time college football. But the upside, talent, and strength of Fairley coupled with the ability to reunite with his position coach from AU, Tracy Rocker (hired by Tennessee earlier this year) will be enough to allow another team in need of a QB to pass on Gabbert.
9) Dallas - OT Tyron Smith, USC - The Cowboys decide that shoring up their OL with the top OT prospect is more important than addressing their need at DE. They could certainly go Quinn here if he drops, and JJ Watt is another guy that would fit well in Big D.
10) Washington - WR Julio Jones, Alabama - The Skins need a big-time WR threat, and Jones showed at the combine that he is a rare combination of size, speed, and strength.
11) Houston - DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri - The Titans hope Prince Amukamara falls to them, and may trade up for him or Peterson if they feel they must address their need at corner in the draft. But, if the price is too high (which it usually is) Smith is the likely selection.
12) Minnesota - QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri - If Gabbert goes to Buffalo/SF/Tennessee and is off the board, I don't think the Vikes take Locker. After giving away their 3rd round pick in the Randy Moss trade, look for Minnesota to trade down for a QB and try to get that 3rd rounder back. Gabbert falling in their lap is definitely best case scenario.
13) Detroit - OT Anthony Costanzo, BC - Detroit is in desperate need of a corner, but the top 2 will certainly be gone by 13. The Lions could look to move up, or reach and take Brandon Harris out of Miami. The RSM pick here is Costanzo as the front office has stated that protecting Matt Stafford is one of their off-season priorities.
14) St Louis - DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue - With Julio Jones off the board, Steve Spagnuolo does what he likes to do, load up on pass rushers. JJ Watt is also a possibility here as well as DT Corey Liegut from Illinois.
15) Miami - RB Mark Ingram, Alabama - The Dolphins really need to make their offense more exciting, and the best RB on the board Ingram is the pick here. Several mocks have Mike Pouncey here, but I think if Miami ends up with him, they trade down.
16) Jacksonville - DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin - Another team with a QB need that will not reach for any of the 2nd tier of QB's. Watt is a great value here and will ease the blow of wanted man Ryan Kerrigan not beaning available.
17) New England - DE/DT Cameron Jordan, Cal - This could be a spot for a team that is in need of a QB to trade up for one of the 2nd tier of QB's (Dalton, Mallett, Locker, Ponder). New England has a history of trading down, but if they stay at 17, Jordan offers the pass rushing and versatility that the Patriots covet.
18) San Diego - DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple - There's a chance that AJ Smith addresses the Chargers need at OT and takes Gabe Carimi, but Wilkerson is the best pass rusher on the board and fills another glaring need.
19) NY Giants - G Mike Pouncey, Florida - The G-Men go with Pouncey to fill a need on their offensive line. They could also go Carimi, but Pouncey is the best lineman available at this point.
20) Tampa Bay - DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa - The Bucs have made no secret that they want a DE with this pick. If they can't trade up, look for one of the top tier guys, look for Clayborn to be the pick.
21) Kansas City - OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin - Easy pick for KC as they really need at OT. Nate Solder from Colorado could also be the pick, but shoring up the OL is a prime off-season priority.
22) Indianapolis - OT Nate Solder, Colorado - Another team in need of an OT, the Colts and Chiefs hope these 2 OT's are available at 21/22.
23) Philadelphia - CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado - Another prime spot for a trade-up for a QB, as Philly would like to move down out of #23. The Eagles do need a CB and will not likely pass on Smith if he is available at 23 and they can't move down.
24) New Orleans - DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State - Heyward gives the Saints more depth on their DL and should make an immediate impact.
25) Seattle - QB Jake Locker, Washington - The Seahawks don't pass on the talented local star and get their QB of the future.
26) Buffalo - QB Christian Ponder, Florida St - The Ravens trade out of #26 as teams now want to trade up for their QB's now that Locker is off the board.
27) Atlanta - DE Brooks Reed, Arizona - The Falcons take the explosive pass rushing DE in hopes he develops into a sack machine in Atlanta.
28) New England - LB/DE Akeem Ayers, UCLA - The hybrid DE/LB from UCLA is a perfect fit for the Pats.
29) Cincinnati - QB Andy Dalton, TCU - The Bengals have to get a QB with the Carson Palmer debacle going on, and Dalton is their man as the Bears trade down and pick up multiple picks.
30) NY Jets - DT Corey Liuget, Illinois - The Jets take the best player available with Liuget and get another big body to throw into their DL rotation.
31) Pittsburgh - CB Brandon Harris, Miami - The Steelers address their need at CB by taking the 3rd best CB available in Harris.
32) Detroit - CB Ras-I Dowling, Virginia - Detroit takes the leap and addresses their CB problem after GB looks to trade down when all their DE targets are off the board.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Falcons Draft Needs…
When looking at the Falcons and the upcoming draft, there are certainly needs that have to be addressed. The team could use upgrades or young talent at cornerback, defensive end, offensive line, wide receiver, running back, and tight end. Free agency is different this year with the lockout, which makes it more difficult to project how to fill some of these needs outside of the draft.
Looking at some mock drafts and projections, it seems most experts see the Falcons taking a defensive end with their 1st pick. As a Thomas Dimitroff supporter, I would be excited if he selects a DE with the 27th pick because I trust his talent evaluation abilities.
What intrigues me, though, is the possibility of Mark Ingram being available in that #27 slot. There are certainly other backs that could come in and be a solid back up to Michael Turner in 2011 in the later rounds, but no one else that could eventually develop into the next feature back in Atlanta. With almost 900 carries the last 3 years, Turner is most likely past his prime years and a young stud like Ingram seems like a good fit. He doesn’t overwhelm scouts with speed or size, but neither did Emmitt Smith.
The 2nd round will likely still have many DE’s, with as many as 9 going off the board in Round 1. The influx of DE’s and QB’s from picks 10-40 will likely drop some players projected as late 1st to early 2nd round picks down to #59, where Atlanta picks in Round 2. Allen Bailey is from Georgia and projects as a mid-to late 2nd round pick. If he is available at #59, I think he would be a steal. Also, there are some intriguing speed guys at receiver that are projected 2nd round picks in Randall Cobb, Jerrel Jernigan, and Torrey Smith. This trio also would provide depth in the return game as all have good speed and return skills.
The 3rd round looks like a round where there is tremendous depth in talent at cornerback. Curtis Brown, Johnny Patrick, Chimdi Chekwa, and Marcus Gilchrist are all talented corners that could provide needed depth in the Birds secondary.
If Ingram is unavailable or Dimitroff likes Clayborn, Heyward, Kerrigan, Watt, Jordan, Houston, Bowers, Ayers, or any other DE prospect in Round 1, there are 3rd round RB’s that could come in and help the depth need at running back. Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State, Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas, and Shane Vereen of Cal may be available with pick #91.
Tight End would likely be either a 1st round pick, with Kyle Rudolph of ND, or a 3rd round pick on Tennessee’s Luke Stocker. If OL is considered a 1st 3 round need, there are definitely talented players that could compete with the returning big men up front for playing time.
Here is what I hope will go down next Thursday/Friday:
1st – Mark Ingram, RB – Alabama
2nd – Allen Bailey , DE – Miami (FL)
3rd – Curtis Brown, CB – Texas
Or
1st – Justin Houston, DE – UGA
2nd – Randall Cobb, WR/KR – Kentucky
3rd – Daniel Thomas, RB – Kansas State
Thoughts?
Looking at some mock drafts and projections, it seems most experts see the Falcons taking a defensive end with their 1st pick. As a Thomas Dimitroff supporter, I would be excited if he selects a DE with the 27th pick because I trust his talent evaluation abilities.
What intrigues me, though, is the possibility of Mark Ingram being available in that #27 slot. There are certainly other backs that could come in and be a solid back up to Michael Turner in 2011 in the later rounds, but no one else that could eventually develop into the next feature back in Atlanta. With almost 900 carries the last 3 years, Turner is most likely past his prime years and a young stud like Ingram seems like a good fit. He doesn’t overwhelm scouts with speed or size, but neither did Emmitt Smith.
The 2nd round will likely still have many DE’s, with as many as 9 going off the board in Round 1. The influx of DE’s and QB’s from picks 10-40 will likely drop some players projected as late 1st to early 2nd round picks down to #59, where Atlanta picks in Round 2. Allen Bailey is from Georgia and projects as a mid-to late 2nd round pick. If he is available at #59, I think he would be a steal. Also, there are some intriguing speed guys at receiver that are projected 2nd round picks in Randall Cobb, Jerrel Jernigan, and Torrey Smith. This trio also would provide depth in the return game as all have good speed and return skills.
The 3rd round looks like a round where there is tremendous depth in talent at cornerback. Curtis Brown, Johnny Patrick, Chimdi Chekwa, and Marcus Gilchrist are all talented corners that could provide needed depth in the Birds secondary.
If Ingram is unavailable or Dimitroff likes Clayborn, Heyward, Kerrigan, Watt, Jordan, Houston, Bowers, Ayers, or any other DE prospect in Round 1, there are 3rd round RB’s that could come in and help the depth need at running back. Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State, Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas, and Shane Vereen of Cal may be available with pick #91.
Tight End would likely be either a 1st round pick, with Kyle Rudolph of ND, or a 3rd round pick on Tennessee’s Luke Stocker. If OL is considered a 1st 3 round need, there are definitely talented players that could compete with the returning big men up front for playing time.
Here is what I hope will go down next Thursday/Friday:
1st – Mark Ingram, RB – Alabama
2nd – Allen Bailey , DE – Miami (FL)
3rd – Curtis Brown, CB – Texas
Or
1st – Justin Houston, DE – UGA
2nd – Randall Cobb, WR/KR – Kentucky
3rd – Daniel Thomas, RB – Kansas State
Thoughts?
Monday, April 4, 2011
20 Greatest Braves
Ok, ESPN New York now has a top 50 Yankees of All-Time list, so it is now necessary to compile one of the Bravos. Only statistics compiled while a member of the Braves are considered, and the entire franchise BOS-MIL-ATL history is also considered.
20. Ralph Garr had a very productive 7 year career with the Atlanta Braves. Playing all 3 outfield spots, he finished in the top 25 in MVP voting in 3 of his 4 years as an everyday player. His best season, 1974, Garr made the All-Star team while leading the NL in hits (217), triples (17), and batting average (.353).
19. Lew Burdette – A Milwaukee Brave from 1951-1962, Burdette was the #2 starter behind Warren Spahn for most of his time as a Brave. From 56-61, Burdette had his peak years, finishing in the top 25 in MVP voting 4 times, making 2 All-Star teams, and averaging almost 19 wins per year.
18. Brian McCann – Brain has an unreal beginning to his Braves career and figures to move up on this list the next few years. Already a 5-time All-Star at age 27, Brian also has 4 sliver slugger awards, 5 18+ home run seasons, and his 162 game average of .289/24/100 isn’t far off from Johnny Bench’s .267/29/103.
17. Joe Adcock – A Milwaukee Brave from 53-62, Joe has the crazy stat of compiling 18 total bases in 1 game, 2nd most in major league history to Shawn Green. Joe finished in the top 20 in MVP voting 4 times as a Brave, and was an All-Star in 1960. He hit 233 home runs as a Brave, highlighted by hitting 38 in 1956 and leading the team to the World Series.
16. Fred McGriff – The Crime Dog was an integral part of the 1995 World Championship team, and his acquisition in July of 1993 was in the middle of the team’s peak seasons. Freddie was a 3-time All-Star as a Brave, finished in the top 20 in MVP voting once, and in the top 10 in 1994 (8th). His average season as a Brave is a very impressive .292/28/98.
15. David Justice – Justice makes this list for a number of reasons, most notably he had the biggest hit in Atlanta Braves history. His solo home run in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series was the only run scored and gave Atlanta its only World Championship. Justice also won Rookie of the Year in 1990, went to 2 All-Star games, and had 3 top 25 MVP finishes as a Brave. His 1993 season (3rd in MVP voting), where he hit .270/40/120 earned him a Sliver Slugger award as an outfielder.
14. Tommy Holmes – Holmes was an outfielder for the Boston Braves from 1942-1951. He is best known for his 1945 season as a Brave, where he led the league in hits, home runs, SLG%, OBP%, and total bases. During his time as a Brave, Holmes finished in the top 30 in MVP voting 5 times, highlighted by his runner-up MVP finish in 1945.
13. Javy Lopez – Our second Atlanta Brave catcher on the list also sports a very impressive 162 game average as a Brave. Lopez’s .286/28/96 average is right up there with Johnny Bench as well. Javy finished 5th in the 2003 MVP voting, where he had a career year of .328/43/109, one of the best seasons a catcher has ever had in major league history. He was a 3 time All-Star who also posted a very impressive .284/34/106 in 1998.
12. Rabbit Maranville - Our 2nd Boston Brave on the list is our first Hall of Famer to appear. Walter James Vincent “Rabbit” Maranville was a Boston Brave for 15 seasons from 1912-1935. He finished in . the top 20 in MVP voting as a Brave 5 times, including a 2nd and a 3rd in 1913 and 1914. In Rabbit’s 1st term in Boston, he was a slick-fielding SS, but later came back to Boston to play 2nd base as his career wore down. Only a .258 career hitter with 28 career home runs, some question his Hall of Fame credentials, but his defense and invention of the basket catch get him on the top Braves list with ease.
11. Johnny Sain – Sain was a dominant right handed pitcher that would have put up incredible numbers if he didn’t miss 3 seasons to fight in WWII. He won 20+ 4 times from 1946-1950 and finished top 25 in MVP voting 4 times, including 5th in 1946. As a Brave, he led the NL in complete games twice, innings pitched, and wins.
10. Dale Murphy – Old Dale was just about a Brave lifer, playing in Atlanta from 1976-1990. He won back-to-back MVP awards in 82-83, and had 3 other seasons finishing in the top 11. Murph hit 371 home runs as a Brave, and drove in 100+ runs 5 different times. Dale also played in 7 All-Star games and owns 4 Silver Slugger awards.
9. Andruw Jones – Jones had a remarkable run with the Braves from 97-07. He won 10 gold gloves, went to 5 All-Star games, and had 5 seasons finishing in the top 20 in MVP voting. Andruw’s best year, 2005, resulted in a runner-up MVP finish while leading the majors in home runs with 51. In his 12 year run as a Brave, Jones belted 368 home runs and was a part of 10 National League East Champion teams.
8. Phil Neikro – Knucksie won 268 games as a Brave and was a 5 time All-Star. Phil was a 3-time 20 game winner as a Brave, led the league in complete games and innings pitched 4 times. He compiled 5 top 10 finishes in Cy Young voting and 3 top 20 MVP finishes.
7. John Smoltz – Smoltz, the franchise career saves leader, also was a dominant starting pitcher during the 14 year divisional championship run. Smoltz was the 1996 Cy Young award winner, and he finished in the top 7 in voting 4 other years. Smoltzie is a 8 time All-Star who has led the NL in wins and K’ twice, saves, and innings pitched.
6. Chipper Jones – When he retires, Chipper will go down as one of the greatest Braves, switch-hitters, and #1 overall draft picks of all-time. Chipper made an immediate impact as a Brave, batting 3rd on the 1995 World Championship team as a rookie. Since then, Chip has won an MVP award (‘99), batting title (’08), led the league in OPS (’07), and made 6 All-Star games. Besides ’99, Jones also has finished in the top 25 in MVP voting 11 times, including 8 top 12 finishes.
5. Tom Glavine – A 2-time Cy Young award winner, Glavine was a staple in Braves rotations from 1988-2002. He compiled a 244-147 record as Brave and was an 8 time All-Star. Tommy also had 4 seasons besides his 2 Cy Young award winner seasons where he finished in the top 3 in voting. He also led the league in wins 5 times from 91-00.
4. Greg Maddux – Mad Dog was virtually un-hittable in his 11 seasons as a Brave. He won 3 Cy Young awards, and finished in the top 5 in voting 4 other years. He was the NL ERA leader 4 times from 93-98 and won 10 Gold Glove Awards. Maddux was also the NL leader in his time as a Brave in wins (x3), W-L% (x2), CG’s (x3), Shutouts (x5), and Innings pitched (x5)
3. Eddie Mathews – Another Hall of Famer and member of the 500 HR club, Eddie is the only player who played for the Braves in Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. He was a 9 time All-Star with 10 top 30 MVP finishes. He hit 493 home runs as Brave, and led the league twice with 46 and 47 in ’53 and ’59.
2. Warren Spahn - From 1942-1964, Spahn was the dominant pitcher in the Braves organization. He won 357 games as a Brave, including the Cy Young on the 1957 World Series Champion team. He is a 14 time All-Star, 15 time top 25 MVP finisher, and a 3-time Cy Young runner-up. A Hall of Famer, Spahn is considered one of the greatest left handed pitchers of all-time.
1. Hank Aaron – Our #1 Brave is the former Home Run King, Hank Aaron. Hammerin Hank was on 20 All-Star teams as a Brave, won the 1957 MVP and finished in the top 16 in MVP voting 19 times. He is the all-time Major League leader in RBI (2297) and total bases (6856). Hank also led the league in home runs (x4), runs (x3), hits (x2), doubles (x4), RBI (x4), AVG (x2), SLG (x4), OPS (x3), and total bases (x8).
20. Ralph Garr had a very productive 7 year career with the Atlanta Braves. Playing all 3 outfield spots, he finished in the top 25 in MVP voting in 3 of his 4 years as an everyday player. His best season, 1974, Garr made the All-Star team while leading the NL in hits (217), triples (17), and batting average (.353).
19. Lew Burdette – A Milwaukee Brave from 1951-1962, Burdette was the #2 starter behind Warren Spahn for most of his time as a Brave. From 56-61, Burdette had his peak years, finishing in the top 25 in MVP voting 4 times, making 2 All-Star teams, and averaging almost 19 wins per year.
18. Brian McCann – Brain has an unreal beginning to his Braves career and figures to move up on this list the next few years. Already a 5-time All-Star at age 27, Brian also has 4 sliver slugger awards, 5 18+ home run seasons, and his 162 game average of .289/24/100 isn’t far off from Johnny Bench’s .267/29/103.
17. Joe Adcock – A Milwaukee Brave from 53-62, Joe has the crazy stat of compiling 18 total bases in 1 game, 2nd most in major league history to Shawn Green. Joe finished in the top 20 in MVP voting 4 times as a Brave, and was an All-Star in 1960. He hit 233 home runs as a Brave, highlighted by hitting 38 in 1956 and leading the team to the World Series.
16. Fred McGriff – The Crime Dog was an integral part of the 1995 World Championship team, and his acquisition in July of 1993 was in the middle of the team’s peak seasons. Freddie was a 3-time All-Star as a Brave, finished in the top 20 in MVP voting once, and in the top 10 in 1994 (8th). His average season as a Brave is a very impressive .292/28/98.
15. David Justice – Justice makes this list for a number of reasons, most notably he had the biggest hit in Atlanta Braves history. His solo home run in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series was the only run scored and gave Atlanta its only World Championship. Justice also won Rookie of the Year in 1990, went to 2 All-Star games, and had 3 top 25 MVP finishes as a Brave. His 1993 season (3rd in MVP voting), where he hit .270/40/120 earned him a Sliver Slugger award as an outfielder.
14. Tommy Holmes – Holmes was an outfielder for the Boston Braves from 1942-1951. He is best known for his 1945 season as a Brave, where he led the league in hits, home runs, SLG%, OBP%, and total bases. During his time as a Brave, Holmes finished in the top 30 in MVP voting 5 times, highlighted by his runner-up MVP finish in 1945.
13. Javy Lopez – Our second Atlanta Brave catcher on the list also sports a very impressive 162 game average as a Brave. Lopez’s .286/28/96 average is right up there with Johnny Bench as well. Javy finished 5th in the 2003 MVP voting, where he had a career year of .328/43/109, one of the best seasons a catcher has ever had in major league history. He was a 3 time All-Star who also posted a very impressive .284/34/106 in 1998.
12. Rabbit Maranville - Our 2nd Boston Brave on the list is our first Hall of Famer to appear. Walter James Vincent “Rabbit” Maranville was a Boston Brave for 15 seasons from 1912-1935. He finished in . the top 20 in MVP voting as a Brave 5 times, including a 2nd and a 3rd in 1913 and 1914. In Rabbit’s 1st term in Boston, he was a slick-fielding SS, but later came back to Boston to play 2nd base as his career wore down. Only a .258 career hitter with 28 career home runs, some question his Hall of Fame credentials, but his defense and invention of the basket catch get him on the top Braves list with ease.
11. Johnny Sain – Sain was a dominant right handed pitcher that would have put up incredible numbers if he didn’t miss 3 seasons to fight in WWII. He won 20+ 4 times from 1946-1950 and finished top 25 in MVP voting 4 times, including 5th in 1946. As a Brave, he led the NL in complete games twice, innings pitched, and wins.
10. Dale Murphy – Old Dale was just about a Brave lifer, playing in Atlanta from 1976-1990. He won back-to-back MVP awards in 82-83, and had 3 other seasons finishing in the top 11. Murph hit 371 home runs as a Brave, and drove in 100+ runs 5 different times. Dale also played in 7 All-Star games and owns 4 Silver Slugger awards.
9. Andruw Jones – Jones had a remarkable run with the Braves from 97-07. He won 10 gold gloves, went to 5 All-Star games, and had 5 seasons finishing in the top 20 in MVP voting. Andruw’s best year, 2005, resulted in a runner-up MVP finish while leading the majors in home runs with 51. In his 12 year run as a Brave, Jones belted 368 home runs and was a part of 10 National League East Champion teams.
8. Phil Neikro – Knucksie won 268 games as a Brave and was a 5 time All-Star. Phil was a 3-time 20 game winner as a Brave, led the league in complete games and innings pitched 4 times. He compiled 5 top 10 finishes in Cy Young voting and 3 top 20 MVP finishes.
7. John Smoltz – Smoltz, the franchise career saves leader, also was a dominant starting pitcher during the 14 year divisional championship run. Smoltz was the 1996 Cy Young award winner, and he finished in the top 7 in voting 4 other years. Smoltzie is a 8 time All-Star who has led the NL in wins and K’ twice, saves, and innings pitched.
6. Chipper Jones – When he retires, Chipper will go down as one of the greatest Braves, switch-hitters, and #1 overall draft picks of all-time. Chipper made an immediate impact as a Brave, batting 3rd on the 1995 World Championship team as a rookie. Since then, Chip has won an MVP award (‘99), batting title (’08), led the league in OPS (’07), and made 6 All-Star games. Besides ’99, Jones also has finished in the top 25 in MVP voting 11 times, including 8 top 12 finishes.
5. Tom Glavine – A 2-time Cy Young award winner, Glavine was a staple in Braves rotations from 1988-2002. He compiled a 244-147 record as Brave and was an 8 time All-Star. Tommy also had 4 seasons besides his 2 Cy Young award winner seasons where he finished in the top 3 in voting. He also led the league in wins 5 times from 91-00.
4. Greg Maddux – Mad Dog was virtually un-hittable in his 11 seasons as a Brave. He won 3 Cy Young awards, and finished in the top 5 in voting 4 other years. He was the NL ERA leader 4 times from 93-98 and won 10 Gold Glove Awards. Maddux was also the NL leader in his time as a Brave in wins (x3), W-L% (x2), CG’s (x3), Shutouts (x5), and Innings pitched (x5)
3. Eddie Mathews – Another Hall of Famer and member of the 500 HR club, Eddie is the only player who played for the Braves in Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. He was a 9 time All-Star with 10 top 30 MVP finishes. He hit 493 home runs as Brave, and led the league twice with 46 and 47 in ’53 and ’59.
2. Warren Spahn - From 1942-1964, Spahn was the dominant pitcher in the Braves organization. He won 357 games as a Brave, including the Cy Young on the 1957 World Series Champion team. He is a 14 time All-Star, 15 time top 25 MVP finisher, and a 3-time Cy Young runner-up. A Hall of Famer, Spahn is considered one of the greatest left handed pitchers of all-time.
1. Hank Aaron – Our #1 Brave is the former Home Run King, Hank Aaron. Hammerin Hank was on 20 All-Star teams as a Brave, won the 1957 MVP and finished in the top 16 in MVP voting 19 times. He is the all-time Major League leader in RBI (2297) and total bases (6856). Hank also led the league in home runs (x4), runs (x3), hits (x2), doubles (x4), RBI (x4), AVG (x2), SLG (x4), OPS (x3), and total bases (x8).
MLB Predictions
Meant to put these up last week, but here they are anyway.
NL East
1. Philly
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. Washington
5. New York
NL Central
1. St Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Milwaukee
4. Chicago
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh
NL West
1. Rockies
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks
WC – Braves
Playoffs
Braves over Rockies
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Phillies
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians
AL West
1. A’s
2. Rangers
3. Angels
4. Mariners
WC – Yankees
Playoffs
Red Sox over A’s
White Sox over Yankees
Red Sox over White Sox
World Series
Braves over Red Sox
NL MVP – Dan Uggla
AL MVP – Adrian Gonzalez
NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young – Jon Lester
NL ROY – Dominic Brown
AL ROY – Jeremy Hellickson
NL East
1. Philly
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. Washington
5. New York
NL Central
1. St Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Milwaukee
4. Chicago
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh
NL West
1. Rockies
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks
WC – Braves
Playoffs
Braves over Rockies
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Phillies
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians
AL West
1. A’s
2. Rangers
3. Angels
4. Mariners
WC – Yankees
Playoffs
Red Sox over A’s
White Sox over Yankees
Red Sox over White Sox
World Series
Braves over Red Sox
NL MVP – Dan Uggla
AL MVP – Adrian Gonzalez
NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young – Jon Lester
NL ROY – Dominic Brown
AL ROY – Jeremy Hellickson
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Final NCAA prediction...
Lets take a look at the bubble teams now that it is Selection Sunday and see who should be in and who should be out.
The one team that I don't get as a bubble team is USC. They lost 9 games in the Pac-10, which had more bad teams than good ones. They have losses to Bradley (RPI 234), Rider (105), TCU (209), Oregon x2 (135), Oregon St (217), Cal (77), and Washington State (84). I know they are playing well now, beat some good teams (Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Arizona), but the resume is clearly not tourney-worthy. The are certainly better with Jio Fontan, but I still don't see them in.
I have written on here the last week or so that I don't think BC has a legit case either. They failed to pick up a top 50 win since beating Texas A&M over Thanksgiving week. Not enough quality wins coupled with some bad losses put them out.
St Mary's went 3-4 in their last 7 and if they don't get in, they can blame it on losing late in the year (2/16) to San Diego, who boasts an RPI of 320. But, like BC, their only top 50 win was St. Johns, and that was on 11/16. Their 2nd best win was Gonzaga (58), but the Gaels also lost to the Zags twice. Stat that keeps them out: 20 of 23 wins vs. sub-100 opponents and one sub-300 loss.
Clemson looks like the ACC's best bubble team, but only because they have beaten the others up recently. ACC supporters think Clemson should be a lock because they have good wins over VT, BC, and FSU. While these are quality wins, do they, coupled with wins vs Charleston, Miami, and Long Beach State (next best wins) get the Tigers in? Maybe.
Virginia Tech is in a tough spot as well, as they were probably the last team out last year when I thought they were in easily. They are in a similar position this year with an RPI of 61 and that one Duke win as their case-maker. They have 2 wins over FSU, which help, and their win over Penn State looks better now. I just don't see how their stock improved after the past 2 weeks by getting blown out at home vs BC, losing to Clemson, beating GT and FSU (w/o Singleton by a finger-tip).
Alabama has a case only because of their 2 wins over UGA and their incredible play at home this season. Check the numbers below to see how they played away from home. The committee looks at numbers like these.
Bubble Teams Stats (via Mark Schlabach)
Most losses vs. teams outside top 25: UGA (4); VT (7); Clemson (6); Bama (7); BC (8); Penn St (8); VCU (8); Colo (10); USC (11)
Most top-50 wins: Colo (6); USC (5); PSU (5); Ala (4); VCU (3); UGA (3); VT (2); BC (1); St. Mary's (1); UAB (1); Clemson (0)
Road/Neutral: VCU (12-8); VT (10-8); St. Mary's (10-6); UGA (9-7); BC (8-8); USC (7-10); Penn St (6-8); Clem (6-9); Colo (6-11); Ala (5-11)
How I see it (with Richmond winning today)
1. Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pitt
2. Notre Dame, San Diego St, UNC, BYU
3. UConn, Texas, Florida, Kentucky
4. Louisville, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M, Purdue, Vanderbilt, UNLV
6. Xavier, St Johns, Kansas St, West Virginia
7. Washington, Old Dominion, Temple, Georgetown
8. UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St, Gonzaga
9. Missouri, Richmond, Butler, George Mason
10. Villanova, Tennessee, Florida St, Marquette
11. Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan St
12. Clemson/Alabama, Illinois/Virginia Tech, Penn State
These predictions will certainly change if Dayton wins today. That would push out the last team in, which here was Alabama.
This differs from the "Bracketology" experts at CBS Sports (Bama/Colorado in and VCU/St Mary's out) and ESPN (UGA/Bama in and St Mary's/USC out)
Only 7 hours until we know for sure...
The one team that I don't get as a bubble team is USC. They lost 9 games in the Pac-10, which had more bad teams than good ones. They have losses to Bradley (RPI 234), Rider (105), TCU (209), Oregon x2 (135), Oregon St (217), Cal (77), and Washington State (84). I know they are playing well now, beat some good teams (Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Arizona), but the resume is clearly not tourney-worthy. The are certainly better with Jio Fontan, but I still don't see them in.
I have written on here the last week or so that I don't think BC has a legit case either. They failed to pick up a top 50 win since beating Texas A&M over Thanksgiving week. Not enough quality wins coupled with some bad losses put them out.
St Mary's went 3-4 in their last 7 and if they don't get in, they can blame it on losing late in the year (2/16) to San Diego, who boasts an RPI of 320. But, like BC, their only top 50 win was St. Johns, and that was on 11/16. Their 2nd best win was Gonzaga (58), but the Gaels also lost to the Zags twice. Stat that keeps them out: 20 of 23 wins vs. sub-100 opponents and one sub-300 loss.
Clemson looks like the ACC's best bubble team, but only because they have beaten the others up recently. ACC supporters think Clemson should be a lock because they have good wins over VT, BC, and FSU. While these are quality wins, do they, coupled with wins vs Charleston, Miami, and Long Beach State (next best wins) get the Tigers in? Maybe.
Virginia Tech is in a tough spot as well, as they were probably the last team out last year when I thought they were in easily. They are in a similar position this year with an RPI of 61 and that one Duke win as their case-maker. They have 2 wins over FSU, which help, and their win over Penn State looks better now. I just don't see how their stock improved after the past 2 weeks by getting blown out at home vs BC, losing to Clemson, beating GT and FSU (w/o Singleton by a finger-tip).
Alabama has a case only because of their 2 wins over UGA and their incredible play at home this season. Check the numbers below to see how they played away from home. The committee looks at numbers like these.
Bubble Teams Stats (via Mark Schlabach)
Most losses vs. teams outside top 25: UGA (4); VT (7); Clemson (6); Bama (7); BC (8); Penn St (8); VCU (8); Colo (10); USC (11)
Most top-50 wins: Colo (6); USC (5); PSU (5); Ala (4); VCU (3); UGA (3); VT (2); BC (1); St. Mary's (1); UAB (1); Clemson (0)
Road/Neutral: VCU (12-8); VT (10-8); St. Mary's (10-6); UGA (9-7); BC (8-8); USC (7-10); Penn St (6-8); Clem (6-9); Colo (6-11); Ala (5-11)
How I see it (with Richmond winning today)
1. Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pitt
2. Notre Dame, San Diego St, UNC, BYU
3. UConn, Texas, Florida, Kentucky
4. Louisville, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M, Purdue, Vanderbilt, UNLV
6. Xavier, St Johns, Kansas St, West Virginia
7. Washington, Old Dominion, Temple, Georgetown
8. UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St, Gonzaga
9. Missouri, Richmond, Butler, George Mason
10. Villanova, Tennessee, Florida St, Marquette
11. Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan St
12. Clemson/Alabama, Illinois/Virginia Tech, Penn State
These predictions will certainly change if Dayton wins today. That would push out the last team in, which here was Alabama.
This differs from the "Bracketology" experts at CBS Sports (Bama/Colorado in and VCU/St Mary's out) and ESPN (UGA/Bama in and St Mary's/USC out)
Only 7 hours until we know for sure...
Monday, March 7, 2011
What did the weekend tell us?
Not much, actually…because George Mason and Missouri State both lost and that opens up a new debate about these teams as potential at-large selections. As you read on here last week, teams like Virginia Tech and Nebraska desperately needed big wins this weekend and came up short. Both are out now barring runs in their respective conference tourney’s all way to Sunday.
The following teams have been mentioned as bubble teams the past few weeks, but are locks for the tourney even if they fail to win another game:
1) Gonzaga
2) St Mary’s
3) Butler
4) Illinois
Obviously, one of the WCC teams will earn the auto-bid tonight, but whoever loses the Zaga/St Mary’s game is also safe as an at-large team. Both finished strong and have enough non-conference wins and a high enough RPI to feel safe. Butler is in the same boat and Illinois owns wins over Gonzaga, UNC, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State and will still be in even if they lose to Michigan in the 1st round of the Big 10 tournament.
These teams lost this weekend and now need to win at least one game this week to feel comfortable at all.
1) UGA
2) Virginia Tech
3) Michigan St
4) Tennessee
5) Marquette
I think all 5 of these teams are “out” if they lose their 1st round game this week. Winning that game won’t ensure a bid, but losing will make each of these 5 NIT bound.
Other teams that won this weekend, but still have work to do:
1) Michigan
2) Colorado
3) Richmond
4) Boston College
5) Alabama
6) Clemson
7) UAB
8) Florida State
Finally, we have the top 40 RPI mid-majors who were upset in their conference tourneys, Missouri State and George Mason. Let’s take a look at these 2 teams 1st in our bubble team breakdown:
1) George Mason – RPI (23), 2-1 vs top 50 RPI, 9-1 last 10 – Mason is a tough team for me to put in the tournament. Granted, they were on a 16 game win streak before losing to VCU on Sunday, but their overall resume is not very impressive. Their top 50 wins are Harvard and ODU, and they have losses to NC St (106), Wofford (121), Dayton (84), and Hofstra (82).
2) Missouri St – RPI (37), 0-1 vs top 50 RPI, 8-2 last 10 – I think Missouri State is a good team. I have seen them 3 times this year and they can really play. However, they are not an NCAA tournament team in my opinion. Their 2 best wins are against Wichita State, and every other team in the RPI top 100 they have played they have lost to: Tennessee (32), Tulsa (81), Oklahoma St (62), Indiana St (95) twice, and Valparaiso (71). They also have losses to Northern Iowa (108) and Evansville (142). NIT bound in my book…
So, here is my take on the seeds as of today, and who the last few teams in the tournament are:
1) Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Kansas
2) UNC, Duke, Texas, BYU
3) San Diego St, Florida, Kentucky, Purdue
4) Louisville, Syracuse, Wisconsin, St. Johns
5) Vanderbilt, Xavier, Kansas St, West Virginia
6) Arizona, UNLV, Georgetown, Cincinnati
7) Villanova, Texas A&M, UConn, Temple
8) Old Dominion, Missouri, UCLA, Washington
9) Utah St, Illinois, Butler, St Mary’s
10) UAB, Clemson, Tennessee, UGA
11) Richmond, Florida St, Michigan, Alabama
12) George Mason/Boston College, Colorado/Michigan St, Marquette
That leaves the following bubble teams currently “out”:
1) Virginia Tech
2) Missouri State
3) Washington St
4) Baylor
5) Memphis
6) Nebraska
7) Colorado St
8) Washington St
Every at-large team in the 10-12 spot can easily be pushed out with a 1st round loss in their conference tourney. UGA is likely out if they lose to Auburn, Bama out if they lose to UGA/Auburn, UAB out with 1st round loss, Michigan St, Marquette, and so on all need to win at least 1 to feel good about their chances.
There are also still a ton of important games this week for the teams in the 10-12 spots. If you are a fan of any of the teams listed above, here is who you need to be rooting for this week (bubble teams included that need wins):
Monday: Old Dominion
Tuesday: Butler, Providence
Thursday: Auburn, Wake Forest, Iowa, Arkansas
Friday: Illinois
It’s hard to do a lot of predicting when you don’t know how teams will be matched up in the brackets, but as of now I like Ohio St, Pitt, Texas, and Florida to make very strong runs towards the title.
The following teams have been mentioned as bubble teams the past few weeks, but are locks for the tourney even if they fail to win another game:
1) Gonzaga
2) St Mary’s
3) Butler
4) Illinois
Obviously, one of the WCC teams will earn the auto-bid tonight, but whoever loses the Zaga/St Mary’s game is also safe as an at-large team. Both finished strong and have enough non-conference wins and a high enough RPI to feel safe. Butler is in the same boat and Illinois owns wins over Gonzaga, UNC, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State and will still be in even if they lose to Michigan in the 1st round of the Big 10 tournament.
These teams lost this weekend and now need to win at least one game this week to feel comfortable at all.
1) UGA
2) Virginia Tech
3) Michigan St
4) Tennessee
5) Marquette
I think all 5 of these teams are “out” if they lose their 1st round game this week. Winning that game won’t ensure a bid, but losing will make each of these 5 NIT bound.
Other teams that won this weekend, but still have work to do:
1) Michigan
2) Colorado
3) Richmond
4) Boston College
5) Alabama
6) Clemson
7) UAB
8) Florida State
Finally, we have the top 40 RPI mid-majors who were upset in their conference tourneys, Missouri State and George Mason. Let’s take a look at these 2 teams 1st in our bubble team breakdown:
1) George Mason – RPI (23), 2-1 vs top 50 RPI, 9-1 last 10 – Mason is a tough team for me to put in the tournament. Granted, they were on a 16 game win streak before losing to VCU on Sunday, but their overall resume is not very impressive. Their top 50 wins are Harvard and ODU, and they have losses to NC St (106), Wofford (121), Dayton (84), and Hofstra (82).
2) Missouri St – RPI (37), 0-1 vs top 50 RPI, 8-2 last 10 – I think Missouri State is a good team. I have seen them 3 times this year and they can really play. However, they are not an NCAA tournament team in my opinion. Their 2 best wins are against Wichita State, and every other team in the RPI top 100 they have played they have lost to: Tennessee (32), Tulsa (81), Oklahoma St (62), Indiana St (95) twice, and Valparaiso (71). They also have losses to Northern Iowa (108) and Evansville (142). NIT bound in my book…
So, here is my take on the seeds as of today, and who the last few teams in the tournament are:
1) Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Kansas
2) UNC, Duke, Texas, BYU
3) San Diego St, Florida, Kentucky, Purdue
4) Louisville, Syracuse, Wisconsin, St. Johns
5) Vanderbilt, Xavier, Kansas St, West Virginia
6) Arizona, UNLV, Georgetown, Cincinnati
7) Villanova, Texas A&M, UConn, Temple
8) Old Dominion, Missouri, UCLA, Washington
9) Utah St, Illinois, Butler, St Mary’s
10) UAB, Clemson, Tennessee, UGA
11) Richmond, Florida St, Michigan, Alabama
12) George Mason/Boston College, Colorado/Michigan St, Marquette
That leaves the following bubble teams currently “out”:
1) Virginia Tech
2) Missouri State
3) Washington St
4) Baylor
5) Memphis
6) Nebraska
7) Colorado St
8) Washington St
Every at-large team in the 10-12 spot can easily be pushed out with a 1st round loss in their conference tourney. UGA is likely out if they lose to Auburn, Bama out if they lose to UGA/Auburn, UAB out with 1st round loss, Michigan St, Marquette, and so on all need to win at least 1 to feel good about their chances.
There are also still a ton of important games this week for the teams in the 10-12 spots. If you are a fan of any of the teams listed above, here is who you need to be rooting for this week (bubble teams included that need wins):
Monday: Old Dominion
Tuesday: Butler, Providence
Thursday: Auburn, Wake Forest, Iowa, Arkansas
Friday: Illinois
It’s hard to do a lot of predicting when you don’t know how teams will be matched up in the brackets, but as of now I like Ohio St, Pitt, Texas, and Florida to make very strong runs towards the title.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
What to do with the ACC?
When selection Sunday comes around in 11 days, the selection committee will likely have some tough decisions when it comes to the ACC. In years past, Florida State with a 10-4 conference record, VT and Clemson with a chance at 10, and Boston College with some good non-conference wins would be locks. However, the league isn’t what it used to be…
Lets 1st take a look at the bubble teams in the ACC, their case, and then compare them to some of the other bubble teams. One of the most important factors the committee looks for are RPI, record versus the top 50, and record in their last 10, so these numbers will be given for all teams.
1) Florida State – RPI (48), 2-4 vs to 50, 7-3 last 10 – Florida State really needs to finish strong, as the committee will really take into consideration the fact that the Noles lost their best player to injury. A win vs UNC tonight would likely get them in, but if they lose, they will need to win at NC State and get at least 1 more in the ACC tournament.
2) Virginia Tech – RPI (63), 2-6 vs top 50, 6-4 last 10 – The Hokies were getting a lot of love until they were blown out last night at home vs BC. Now, they face a tough road game against Clemson that may be a loser-is-out scenario. If they lose their last 2 after beating Duke, they will need to get to the ACC tournament final just to be considered.
3) Clemson – RPI (68), 2-4 vs top 50, 6-4 lat 10 – Clemson has worked their way back on the bubble and will move to “lock” status if they win their last 2 at Duke and vs Virginia Tech. Even if they lose to Duke tonight, a win over VT and a decent run in the ACC tournament will give them a good chance at one of the last few spots.
4) Boston College – RPI (37o), 1-6 vs top 50, 4-6 last 10 – BC was all but done until beating VT last night on the road. Now, a win over Wake to finish the season and a win or 2 in the ACC tournament will give them a pretty good resume. The lack of a top 50 win since Thanksgiving hurts, but they may end up having the best resume of all the ACC bubble teams.
Who are these ACC bubble teams battling for the final few spots? Well, after last night, Alabama and Baylor’s chances took major blows. Colorado State dug their grave by losing to Air Force. Marquette and Michigan State had big wins last week and are currently solid at-large choices. So, the following teams are currently on the bubble if they don’t do something before the conference tournaments start and will be battling the above ACC schools for the final 9 spots:
1) Michigan – RPI (57), 2-8 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – winning at Minnesota this past weekend gave the Wolverines the bubble nod over the now NIT-bound Gophers. Michigan can really boost their chances by winning at home against Michigan State Saturday.
2) UGA – RPI (36), 3-9 vs RPI top 50, 5-5 last 10 – UGA is only on here because I am unsure why bracketologists are still considering them on the bubble. They have 0 bad losses and can only miss the tourney by losing their final 3 (tonight vs LSU, Saturday @ BAMA, and 1st round of the SEC tournament). I say they win at least 2 of those and lock up a 7-9 seed.
3) Baylor – RPI (78), 2-5 vs RPI top 50, 5-5 last 10 – Baylor’s chances took a major hit last night after losing to Ok St. While not a bad loss, the Bears needed the win for their resume. Like Boston College, their best win(s) are over Texas A&M.
4) Alabama – RPI (87), 2-3 vs RPI top 50, 8-2 last 10 – Bama’s chances were hurt last night, not because they lost, but how they lost. Everyone saw them get embarrassed by Florida in a game where they failed to compete. They must beat UGA on Saturday and win at least 1 in the SEC tourney to feel comfortable at all.
5) Colorado – RPI (77), 4-6 vs RPI top 50, 4-6 last 10 – Colorado is certainly an interesting case. They own wins over Texas, Missouri, Kansas St, and Colorado State, but also have losses to San Francisco, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, who are all outside the RPI top 90. They can, however, give themselves an excellent change at an NCAA tourney berth by winning their last two against Iowa State and Nebraska.
6) Memphis – RPI (33), 4-4 vs RPI top 50, 6-4 last 10 – Memphis is in a bit of trouble after getting blown out at UTEP Saturday. Their only top 50 wins are UAB (x2) and USM (x2) and they have losses to Rice, Tulsa, and SMU. The Tigers still have a strong RPI, but that will likely drop after their final 2 games – even if they beat ECU and Tulane. Wins in their final 2 and a spot in the C-USA tournament final are a must if Memphis wants in.
7) UAB – RPI (31), 0-5 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – UAB can really use a win at Southern Miss tonight. It would give them their 1st RPI top 50 win and put them in a great spot to finish 12-4 and on top in C-USA. Right now, their best 4 wins are Marshall (x2) and UCF (x2). That must change for UAB to have a legit case.
8) St Mary’s – RPI (49), 1-4 vs RPI top 50, 6-4 last 10 – St Mary’s put themselves in a tough spot by losing 3 in a row late to San Diego, Utah St, and Gonzaga. The reason they have a top 50 RPI is their mid-November win over St John’s and losses to SDSU and BYU. The Gaels may need to win the conference tournament now if some of the other bubble teams finish strong.
9) Gonzaga – RPI (67), 2-6 vs RPI top 50, 9-1 last 10 – The Zags are hot as of late, winning their last 7 and getting squarely on the bubble. Their wins over Marquette and St Mary’s are good, but the Washington State blowout and losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco hurt a little bit. If they lose the conference championship game to St Mary’s, they still have a shot, but need some other teams to start losing.
10) Richmond – RPI (61), 1-3 vs RPI top 50, 8-2 last 10 – The Spiders are getting some more love now, but have been winning as of late due to an easy schedule. They won at Dayton (RPI 65), but other than that, their only top 100 RPI win since beating Purdue over Thanksgiving was 12/11 vs VCU. They need to win their final 2 A-10 games vs St Joe’s and Duquesne and make a conference tourney run to get in.
11) Nebraska – RPI (73), 3-6 vs RPI top 50, 4-6 last 10 – Nebraska is still a bit off the bubble, even after beating Missouri last night. They need to win at Colorado this weekend and win some conference tourney games before they approach “last 4 in” status.
12) Butler – RPI (46) – 3-3 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – Butler has overcome their 3 game losing streak at the end of January to win 7 in a row and again become the Horizon conference tournament favorite. If they fail to win the tournament, they will need some help, but still have a good case.
As of the morning of 3/2, here is how I see the final 9 spots played out
10 seed – UGA
11 seeds – Florida St/Butler, Gonzaga, St Mary’s, Memphis
12 seeds – Clemson/VA tech winner Sat, Alabama, Michigan, Boston College
Lets 1st take a look at the bubble teams in the ACC, their case, and then compare them to some of the other bubble teams. One of the most important factors the committee looks for are RPI, record versus the top 50, and record in their last 10, so these numbers will be given for all teams.
1) Florida State – RPI (48), 2-4 vs to 50, 7-3 last 10 – Florida State really needs to finish strong, as the committee will really take into consideration the fact that the Noles lost their best player to injury. A win vs UNC tonight would likely get them in, but if they lose, they will need to win at NC State and get at least 1 more in the ACC tournament.
2) Virginia Tech – RPI (63), 2-6 vs top 50, 6-4 last 10 – The Hokies were getting a lot of love until they were blown out last night at home vs BC. Now, they face a tough road game against Clemson that may be a loser-is-out scenario. If they lose their last 2 after beating Duke, they will need to get to the ACC tournament final just to be considered.
3) Clemson – RPI (68), 2-4 vs top 50, 6-4 lat 10 – Clemson has worked their way back on the bubble and will move to “lock” status if they win their last 2 at Duke and vs Virginia Tech. Even if they lose to Duke tonight, a win over VT and a decent run in the ACC tournament will give them a good chance at one of the last few spots.
4) Boston College – RPI (37o), 1-6 vs top 50, 4-6 last 10 – BC was all but done until beating VT last night on the road. Now, a win over Wake to finish the season and a win or 2 in the ACC tournament will give them a pretty good resume. The lack of a top 50 win since Thanksgiving hurts, but they may end up having the best resume of all the ACC bubble teams.
Who are these ACC bubble teams battling for the final few spots? Well, after last night, Alabama and Baylor’s chances took major blows. Colorado State dug their grave by losing to Air Force. Marquette and Michigan State had big wins last week and are currently solid at-large choices. So, the following teams are currently on the bubble if they don’t do something before the conference tournaments start and will be battling the above ACC schools for the final 9 spots:
1) Michigan – RPI (57), 2-8 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – winning at Minnesota this past weekend gave the Wolverines the bubble nod over the now NIT-bound Gophers. Michigan can really boost their chances by winning at home against Michigan State Saturday.
2) UGA – RPI (36), 3-9 vs RPI top 50, 5-5 last 10 – UGA is only on here because I am unsure why bracketologists are still considering them on the bubble. They have 0 bad losses and can only miss the tourney by losing their final 3 (tonight vs LSU, Saturday @ BAMA, and 1st round of the SEC tournament). I say they win at least 2 of those and lock up a 7-9 seed.
3) Baylor – RPI (78), 2-5 vs RPI top 50, 5-5 last 10 – Baylor’s chances took a major hit last night after losing to Ok St. While not a bad loss, the Bears needed the win for their resume. Like Boston College, their best win(s) are over Texas A&M.
4) Alabama – RPI (87), 2-3 vs RPI top 50, 8-2 last 10 – Bama’s chances were hurt last night, not because they lost, but how they lost. Everyone saw them get embarrassed by Florida in a game where they failed to compete. They must beat UGA on Saturday and win at least 1 in the SEC tourney to feel comfortable at all.
5) Colorado – RPI (77), 4-6 vs RPI top 50, 4-6 last 10 – Colorado is certainly an interesting case. They own wins over Texas, Missouri, Kansas St, and Colorado State, but also have losses to San Francisco, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, who are all outside the RPI top 90. They can, however, give themselves an excellent change at an NCAA tourney berth by winning their last two against Iowa State and Nebraska.
6) Memphis – RPI (33), 4-4 vs RPI top 50, 6-4 last 10 – Memphis is in a bit of trouble after getting blown out at UTEP Saturday. Their only top 50 wins are UAB (x2) and USM (x2) and they have losses to Rice, Tulsa, and SMU. The Tigers still have a strong RPI, but that will likely drop after their final 2 games – even if they beat ECU and Tulane. Wins in their final 2 and a spot in the C-USA tournament final are a must if Memphis wants in.
7) UAB – RPI (31), 0-5 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – UAB can really use a win at Southern Miss tonight. It would give them their 1st RPI top 50 win and put them in a great spot to finish 12-4 and on top in C-USA. Right now, their best 4 wins are Marshall (x2) and UCF (x2). That must change for UAB to have a legit case.
8) St Mary’s – RPI (49), 1-4 vs RPI top 50, 6-4 last 10 – St Mary’s put themselves in a tough spot by losing 3 in a row late to San Diego, Utah St, and Gonzaga. The reason they have a top 50 RPI is their mid-November win over St John’s and losses to SDSU and BYU. The Gaels may need to win the conference tournament now if some of the other bubble teams finish strong.
9) Gonzaga – RPI (67), 2-6 vs RPI top 50, 9-1 last 10 – The Zags are hot as of late, winning their last 7 and getting squarely on the bubble. Their wins over Marquette and St Mary’s are good, but the Washington State blowout and losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco hurt a little bit. If they lose the conference championship game to St Mary’s, they still have a shot, but need some other teams to start losing.
10) Richmond – RPI (61), 1-3 vs RPI top 50, 8-2 last 10 – The Spiders are getting some more love now, but have been winning as of late due to an easy schedule. They won at Dayton (RPI 65), but other than that, their only top 100 RPI win since beating Purdue over Thanksgiving was 12/11 vs VCU. They need to win their final 2 A-10 games vs St Joe’s and Duquesne and make a conference tourney run to get in.
11) Nebraska – RPI (73), 3-6 vs RPI top 50, 4-6 last 10 – Nebraska is still a bit off the bubble, even after beating Missouri last night. They need to win at Colorado this weekend and win some conference tourney games before they approach “last 4 in” status.
12) Butler – RPI (46) – 3-3 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 last 10 – Butler has overcome their 3 game losing streak at the end of January to win 7 in a row and again become the Horizon conference tournament favorite. If they fail to win the tournament, they will need some help, but still have a good case.
As of the morning of 3/2, here is how I see the final 9 spots played out
10 seed – UGA
11 seeds – Florida St/Butler, Gonzaga, St Mary’s, Memphis
12 seeds – Clemson/VA tech winner Sat, Alabama, Michigan, Boston College
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