Saturday, December 6, 2008

BCS has their fingers crossed...

We have arrived at Championship Saturday, and the BCS will certainly get one of the 2 participants in their title game around 7:30 tonight when Bama-UF ends. Their opponent, fingers crossed for the BCS guys, will be Oklahoma. Texas, USC, Utah, and Penn State will all make claims that they should be in over one of those 2, but a UF-Oklahoma game will make most happy.

Texas has the "you didn't even win your half of your division" argument going against them and almost all human voters will have Oklahoma ahead of Texas tomorrow morning if Oklahoma wins the Big 12. USC and Penn State have the computers going against them due to poor non-conference schedules (both teams best win is Ohio State). Utah has some good wins, but not nearly enough to get in over a 1 loss team from the Big 12 or SEC.

While the system will give us a great national title game this year, there will be the usual controversy. In 2013, ESPN will have the rights to the BCS games and I believe they will put the money out there and attempt to get a "Plus 1" system. The idea was brought up at the last meeting, but there was little hope the idea would get passed right away. The stage is set for 2013, where a #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 would face off a day or 2 after New Years, with the winners playing a week later for the trophy.

Guess which conference commissioners are opposed to this idea? Pac-10 and Big-10 - gotta have that precious Rose Bowl matchup...

The idea of an 8 team playoff is so far fetched right now, it is not even worth discussing. Debating how a #8 seeded Utah team would fare against Alabama is wasted breath because the reality is we are probably 15-20 years away from that even being considered. For now, lets look at how the "Plus 1" would have worked in recent years.

2008 (Projected)

#1 Oklahoma vs #4 USC
#2 Florida vs #3 Texas

I am curious if under the new rules they will allow non-conference champions into the equation. The Big 10 would certainly be upset if the above scenario took place and their 1 loss conference champion was left out.


#1 Ohio State vs #4 Oklahoma
#2 LSU vs #3 Virginia Tech

A classic case of the "Plus 1" working to perfection. Numbers 5 and 6 were non conference champions (UGA and Mizzou) and #6 USC had 2 losses. Again, the argument would be for UGA and Mizzou getting in over a conference champion but it would have been hard to argue against this scenario last year.


#1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU
#2 Florida vs #3 Michigan

This time two non-conference champions would be in the mix and would leave out conference champions USC and Louisville. Maybe now I realize why the Pac-10 is against the "Plus 1".


#1 USC vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs #3 Penn St

The one year the BCS worked to perfection (that's what you say when there are only 2 undefeated teams), the "Plus 1" would have had tons of controversy. A 2 loss team in Ohio State that did not win their conference would be in over conference champion Georgia, a 2 loss Notre Dame, and a 1 loss Oregon whose only loss was #1 USC. You think the ESPN guys would have pleaded for ND to get a shot??


#1 USC vs #4 Texas
#2 Oklahoma vs #3 Auburn

The "Plus 1" at its finest...solving the century old problem in college football, "What do we do with 3 unbeaten teams from major conferences?" Auburn gets their shot, while a non-conference champ Texas gets in over unbeaten Utah. This is the scenario where a team like Utah and Boise like to think they have a title shot under "Plus 1" but this shows you they probably don't (Cal was #5, Utah #6).


#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Michigan
#2 LSU vs #3 USC

This was the year, not 2004, that sparked the talk for the "Plus 1" system. USC was #1 in both polls, but got shut out of the title game. Michigan was Big-10 champs and would have been a great #4 seed in this mini-playoff.


#1 Miami vs #4 USC
#2 Ohio State vs #3 Georgia

Another scenario where 2 unbeaten teams would have to play an extra game, but the roll UGA and USC were on this year would have made for outstanding semi-final games.


#1 Miami vs #4 Oregon
#2 Nebraska vs #3 Colorado

Interesting development here...Nebraska and Colorado played in the Big 12 title game and would have a rematch. Oregon was playing as well as anyone at the end of the season behind Joey "Piano Man" Harrington. Florida and Tennessee fans would have been in an uproar if this had played out.


#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Washington
#2 Florida St vs #3 Miami

No real problems here. Four conference champs but another rematch in one of the games. Lol at Washington...


#1 Florida St vs #4 Alabama
#2 Virginia Tech vs #3 Nebraska

Another awesome pair of games with four conference champs. Bama and Shaun Alexander were really rolling after beating UF and Vick and company against mighty Nebraska? Would have been pretty cool.


#1 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Florida State vs #3 Kansas St

This Ohio State team was pretty strong and may have knocked off eventual champ Tennessee. Kansas St was coming off an upset loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 title game but still would have been in the mix.

All in all, pretty interesting stuff. The idea that 3 unbeaten teams would all get a shot at a title is what I like the most out of this system. Further, it is much easier to argue #4 vs #5 than #2 vs #3. This season, Missouri wins, the argument over who would play the SEC champ would be much more difficult than arguing over Penn State, Utah, or the SEC runner-up for the #4 seed.

Is it 2013 yet???

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