I said after the Chicago game that it would be awesome if we got to week 16 and we were still in the playoff mix. I wasn't being greedy at the time and even seriously thinking we could actually make it, however my attitude has changed now that it is week 16 and we are certainly in the playoff picture.
You have to take advantage of good seasons in the NFL. It is rare for a franchise to year in and year out make the playoffs and have 10+ win seasons, especially in Atlanta. Now that the Birds are 9-5 and can get in the playoffs, why not aim even higher? There is not a dominant team in the league and Pittsburgh and the NY Giants showed that Wild Card teams can make deep runs in the postseason.
In 2002, everyone said to themselves, "We will be in the running for a Super Bowl every year for the next 10 with Mike Vick under center." Everyone knows how that situation worked out. You just don't know. What if Matt Ryan turns into Derek Anderson? What if Michael Turner tears an ACL in the pre-season next year? Just ask San Diego and Jacksonville how easy it is to go into a season after experiencing some success and rolling through an NFL schedule.
Matt Ryan is 23 years old. If the Birds expect 10 solid years out of their franchise QB, how many times will he have ATL in a position this late in the year as he does this year? What if Ryan loses a year to injury? What if Sam Bradford is the next Tom Brady and wins 3 Super Bowls playing for an NFC team? You just can't expect to be 9-5 or better 7-8 times the next 10 years going into Week 16.
In August, losing to Minnesota this week and ending with a win over St Louis to finish with a 10-6 record and barely missing the playoffs sounded like heaven. Now, this scenario makes me want to vomit. Take advantage of the breaks you got this year. Miraculously winning the Chicago game, overcoming 3 turnovers to beat San Diego, overcoming 3 turnovers plus a blocked punt to beat Tampa Bay, and see how far you can go in the playoffs.
Finally, I think one of the hardest things to do in the NFL is to win 10 games and miss the playoffs. Too many teams have gotten in with 8 or 9 wins in NFL history, that winning 10 is extremely frustratig for a franchise. Plus, it enhances expectations for the next season. Imagine an 11-5 Falcons team that misses the playoffs expectations for 2009. Ask Cleveland how hard it is to meet that expectaion and the pressure that comes with it...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
BCS has their fingers crossed...
We have arrived at Championship Saturday, and the BCS will certainly get one of the 2 participants in their title game around 7:30 tonight when Bama-UF ends. Their opponent, fingers crossed for the BCS guys, will be Oklahoma. Texas, USC, Utah, and Penn State will all make claims that they should be in over one of those 2, but a UF-Oklahoma game will make most happy.
Texas has the "you didn't even win your half of your division" argument going against them and almost all human voters will have Oklahoma ahead of Texas tomorrow morning if Oklahoma wins the Big 12. USC and Penn State have the computers going against them due to poor non-conference schedules (both teams best win is Ohio State). Utah has some good wins, but not nearly enough to get in over a 1 loss team from the Big 12 or SEC.
While the system will give us a great national title game this year, there will be the usual controversy. In 2013, ESPN will have the rights to the BCS games and I believe they will put the money out there and attempt to get a "Plus 1" system. The idea was brought up at the last meeting, but there was little hope the idea would get passed right away. The stage is set for 2013, where a #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 would face off a day or 2 after New Years, with the winners playing a week later for the trophy.
Guess which conference commissioners are opposed to this idea? Pac-10 and Big-10 - gotta have that precious Rose Bowl matchup...
The idea of an 8 team playoff is so far fetched right now, it is not even worth discussing. Debating how a #8 seeded Utah team would fare against Alabama is wasted breath because the reality is we are probably 15-20 years away from that even being considered. For now, lets look at how the "Plus 1" would have worked in recent years.
2008 (Projected)
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 USC
#2 Florida vs #3 Texas
I am curious if under the new rules they will allow non-conference champions into the equation. The Big 10 would certainly be upset if the above scenario took place and their 1 loss conference champion was left out.
2007
#1 Ohio State vs #4 Oklahoma
#2 LSU vs #3 Virginia Tech
A classic case of the "Plus 1" working to perfection. Numbers 5 and 6 were non conference champions (UGA and Mizzou) and #6 USC had 2 losses. Again, the argument would be for UGA and Mizzou getting in over a conference champion but it would have been hard to argue against this scenario last year.
2006
#1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU
#2 Florida vs #3 Michigan
This time two non-conference champions would be in the mix and would leave out conference champions USC and Louisville. Maybe now I realize why the Pac-10 is against the "Plus 1".
2005
#1 USC vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs #3 Penn St
The one year the BCS worked to perfection (that's what you say when there are only 2 undefeated teams), the "Plus 1" would have had tons of controversy. A 2 loss team in Ohio State that did not win their conference would be in over conference champion Georgia, a 2 loss Notre Dame, and a 1 loss Oregon whose only loss was #1 USC. You think the ESPN guys would have pleaded for ND to get a shot??
2004
#1 USC vs #4 Texas
#2 Oklahoma vs #3 Auburn
The "Plus 1" at its finest...solving the century old problem in college football, "What do we do with 3 unbeaten teams from major conferences?" Auburn gets their shot, while a non-conference champ Texas gets in over unbeaten Utah. This is the scenario where a team like Utah and Boise like to think they have a title shot under "Plus 1" but this shows you they probably don't (Cal was #5, Utah #6).
2003
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Michigan
#2 LSU vs #3 USC
This was the year, not 2004, that sparked the talk for the "Plus 1" system. USC was #1 in both polls, but got shut out of the title game. Michigan was Big-10 champs and would have been a great #4 seed in this mini-playoff.
2002
#1 Miami vs #4 USC
#2 Ohio State vs #3 Georgia
Another scenario where 2 unbeaten teams would have to play an extra game, but the roll UGA and USC were on this year would have made for outstanding semi-final games.
2001
#1 Miami vs #4 Oregon
#2 Nebraska vs #3 Colorado
Interesting development here...Nebraska and Colorado played in the Big 12 title game and would have a rematch. Oregon was playing as well as anyone at the end of the season behind Joey "Piano Man" Harrington. Florida and Tennessee fans would have been in an uproar if this had played out.
2000
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Washington
#2 Florida St vs #3 Miami
No real problems here. Four conference champs but another rematch in one of the games. Lol at Washington...
1999
#1 Florida St vs #4 Alabama
#2 Virginia Tech vs #3 Nebraska
Another awesome pair of games with four conference champs. Bama and Shaun Alexander were really rolling after beating UF and Vick and company against mighty Nebraska? Would have been pretty cool.
1998
#1 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Florida State vs #3 Kansas St
This Ohio State team was pretty strong and may have knocked off eventual champ Tennessee. Kansas St was coming off an upset loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 title game but still would have been in the mix.
All in all, pretty interesting stuff. The idea that 3 unbeaten teams would all get a shot at a title is what I like the most out of this system. Further, it is much easier to argue #4 vs #5 than #2 vs #3. This season, Missouri wins, the argument over who would play the SEC champ would be much more difficult than arguing over Penn State, Utah, or the SEC runner-up for the #4 seed.
Is it 2013 yet???
Texas has the "you didn't even win your half of your division" argument going against them and almost all human voters will have Oklahoma ahead of Texas tomorrow morning if Oklahoma wins the Big 12. USC and Penn State have the computers going against them due to poor non-conference schedules (both teams best win is Ohio State). Utah has some good wins, but not nearly enough to get in over a 1 loss team from the Big 12 or SEC.
While the system will give us a great national title game this year, there will be the usual controversy. In 2013, ESPN will have the rights to the BCS games and I believe they will put the money out there and attempt to get a "Plus 1" system. The idea was brought up at the last meeting, but there was little hope the idea would get passed right away. The stage is set for 2013, where a #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 would face off a day or 2 after New Years, with the winners playing a week later for the trophy.
Guess which conference commissioners are opposed to this idea? Pac-10 and Big-10 - gotta have that precious Rose Bowl matchup...
The idea of an 8 team playoff is so far fetched right now, it is not even worth discussing. Debating how a #8 seeded Utah team would fare against Alabama is wasted breath because the reality is we are probably 15-20 years away from that even being considered. For now, lets look at how the "Plus 1" would have worked in recent years.
2008 (Projected)
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 USC
#2 Florida vs #3 Texas
I am curious if under the new rules they will allow non-conference champions into the equation. The Big 10 would certainly be upset if the above scenario took place and their 1 loss conference champion was left out.
2007
#1 Ohio State vs #4 Oklahoma
#2 LSU vs #3 Virginia Tech
A classic case of the "Plus 1" working to perfection. Numbers 5 and 6 were non conference champions (UGA and Mizzou) and #6 USC had 2 losses. Again, the argument would be for UGA and Mizzou getting in over a conference champion but it would have been hard to argue against this scenario last year.
2006
#1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU
#2 Florida vs #3 Michigan
This time two non-conference champions would be in the mix and would leave out conference champions USC and Louisville. Maybe now I realize why the Pac-10 is against the "Plus 1".
2005
#1 USC vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs #3 Penn St
The one year the BCS worked to perfection (that's what you say when there are only 2 undefeated teams), the "Plus 1" would have had tons of controversy. A 2 loss team in Ohio State that did not win their conference would be in over conference champion Georgia, a 2 loss Notre Dame, and a 1 loss Oregon whose only loss was #1 USC. You think the ESPN guys would have pleaded for ND to get a shot??
2004
#1 USC vs #4 Texas
#2 Oklahoma vs #3 Auburn
The "Plus 1" at its finest...solving the century old problem in college football, "What do we do with 3 unbeaten teams from major conferences?" Auburn gets their shot, while a non-conference champ Texas gets in over unbeaten Utah. This is the scenario where a team like Utah and Boise like to think they have a title shot under "Plus 1" but this shows you they probably don't (Cal was #5, Utah #6).
2003
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Michigan
#2 LSU vs #3 USC
This was the year, not 2004, that sparked the talk for the "Plus 1" system. USC was #1 in both polls, but got shut out of the title game. Michigan was Big-10 champs and would have been a great #4 seed in this mini-playoff.
2002
#1 Miami vs #4 USC
#2 Ohio State vs #3 Georgia
Another scenario where 2 unbeaten teams would have to play an extra game, but the roll UGA and USC were on this year would have made for outstanding semi-final games.
2001
#1 Miami vs #4 Oregon
#2 Nebraska vs #3 Colorado
Interesting development here...Nebraska and Colorado played in the Big 12 title game and would have a rematch. Oregon was playing as well as anyone at the end of the season behind Joey "Piano Man" Harrington. Florida and Tennessee fans would have been in an uproar if this had played out.
2000
#1 Oklahoma vs #4 Washington
#2 Florida St vs #3 Miami
No real problems here. Four conference champs but another rematch in one of the games. Lol at Washington...
1999
#1 Florida St vs #4 Alabama
#2 Virginia Tech vs #3 Nebraska
Another awesome pair of games with four conference champs. Bama and Shaun Alexander were really rolling after beating UF and Vick and company against mighty Nebraska? Would have been pretty cool.
1998
#1 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State
#2 Florida State vs #3 Kansas St
This Ohio State team was pretty strong and may have knocked off eventual champ Tennessee. Kansas St was coming off an upset loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 title game but still would have been in the mix.
All in all, pretty interesting stuff. The idea that 3 unbeaten teams would all get a shot at a title is what I like the most out of this system. Further, it is much easier to argue #4 vs #5 than #2 vs #3. This season, Missouri wins, the argument over who would play the SEC champ would be much more difficult than arguing over Penn State, Utah, or the SEC runner-up for the #4 seed.
Is it 2013 yet???
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Almost December...
Well, the college football season is almost complete and we are starting to get some decent college basketball matchups. That can only mean that December is upon us. Texas Tech is now officially out of the picture for the BCS title after last night's debacle...or are they? Oklahoma has to travel to OSU next week where things are never easy and if OSU pulls an upset, TT will only have to beat Baylor to win the Big 12 South. A win over Missouri in the title game will probably be enough to get the Red Raiders another shot.
If Oklahoma does win next week, the dreaded BCS standing will determine the Big 12 South champ. That means the human polls will have a lot to say which is probably why Bob Stoops is already lobbying for his guys to be ranked highest. How do you determine the rankings for these 3 teams? You certainly can't put TT ahead of Oklahoma after what we just saw...but, can you put Oklahoma ahead of Texas, who they beat soundly on a neutral field? I think Texas is still the choice, having only lost their lead to TT in the final second - and, they were on the road that night and were playing out a brutal 4 game stretch. Oklahoma will argue they are playing the best right now and point to non-conference wins over TCU and Cincinnati, but the RRS loss is too much to overcome in my opinion - some will certainly disagree, which makes the release of the new polls very interesting today...
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Texas Tech
7. Penn State
8. UGA
9. Ohio State
10. Utah
11. Boise State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Missouri
14. Oregon
15. Ball State
16. Cincinnati
17. Oregon State
18. TCU
19. Michigan State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Boston College
22. West Virginia
23. Northwestern
24. BYU
25. Ole Miss
If Oklahoma does win next week, the dreaded BCS standing will determine the Big 12 South champ. That means the human polls will have a lot to say which is probably why Bob Stoops is already lobbying for his guys to be ranked highest. How do you determine the rankings for these 3 teams? You certainly can't put TT ahead of Oklahoma after what we just saw...but, can you put Oklahoma ahead of Texas, who they beat soundly on a neutral field? I think Texas is still the choice, having only lost their lead to TT in the final second - and, they were on the road that night and were playing out a brutal 4 game stretch. Oklahoma will argue they are playing the best right now and point to non-conference wins over TCU and Cincinnati, but the RRS loss is too much to overcome in my opinion - some will certainly disagree, which makes the release of the new polls very interesting today...
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Texas Tech
7. Penn State
8. UGA
9. Ohio State
10. Utah
11. Boise State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Missouri
14. Oregon
15. Ball State
16. Cincinnati
17. Oregon State
18. TCU
19. Michigan State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Boston College
22. West Virginia
23. Northwestern
24. BYU
25. Ole Miss
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Things I learned...
Things I learned yesterday...
1) The Hawks need Josh Smith back ASAP
2) There is a TON of national "love" for the Falcons
3) The Florida Gators football team can not be stopped
4) USC's defense can give up TD's
5) UGA is not an elite team, but if 9-2 (6-2) is a down year...WOW
6) Any football game involving 2 ACC schools is a crapshoot
7) The CFB team with the most wins this year over ranked teams? Maryland
8) Maryland may be the best team in the ACC and started the year by losing to MTSU, who is 4-6
9) The Georgia State hoops team needs to take their game to a new level - and quickly
10) Oklahoma vs Texas Tech next week is going to be sweet - but, the SECCG will be better
Ranking 'em again...
1) Alabama
2) Texas Tech
3) Florida
4) Texas
5) Oklahoma
6) USC
7) Penn St
8) UGA
9) Ohio St
10) Utah
11) Boise St
12) Oklahoma St
13) Missouri
14) Michigan St
15) Oregon
16) Ball St
17) LSU
18) TCU
19) Cincinnati
20) BYU
21) Miami
22) Oregon St
23) Maryland
24) Pittsburgh
25) North Carolina
1) The Hawks need Josh Smith back ASAP
2) There is a TON of national "love" for the Falcons
3) The Florida Gators football team can not be stopped
4) USC's defense can give up TD's
5) UGA is not an elite team, but if 9-2 (6-2) is a down year...WOW
6) Any football game involving 2 ACC schools is a crapshoot
7) The CFB team with the most wins this year over ranked teams? Maryland
8) Maryland may be the best team in the ACC and started the year by losing to MTSU, who is 4-6
9) The Georgia State hoops team needs to take their game to a new level - and quickly
10) Oklahoma vs Texas Tech next week is going to be sweet - but, the SECCG will be better
Ranking 'em again...
1) Alabama
2) Texas Tech
3) Florida
4) Texas
5) Oklahoma
6) USC
7) Penn St
8) UGA
9) Ohio St
10) Utah
11) Boise St
12) Oklahoma St
13) Missouri
14) Michigan St
15) Oregon
16) Ball St
17) LSU
18) TCU
19) Cincinnati
20) BYU
21) Miami
22) Oregon St
23) Maryland
24) Pittsburgh
25) North Carolina
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
All of a sudden I live in Winnersville?
What is going on with the local teams? The Hawks are currently 6-0 and are up on the defending world champs by 11 on their court in the 2nd quarter. The Falcons are 6-3 and are in the playoff chase in a season where nobody thought they could avoid a 3-4 win season. The Braves are close to acquiring a front-line starting pitcher and even the Thrashers are playing well...
The Hawks and Falcons, however, are receiving the bulk of my attention. The high flying, rim shaking Hawks actually look like they want to play defense, hold leads, and are winning without Josh Smith and poor JJ performances! Who knew?
The Falcons are amazingly having a wonderful season. Matt Ryan is no longer a good draft pick. He is a slam dunk, franchise, future Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowl level quarterback. We have a STUD wide receiver in Roddy White, solid OL, and a DE that gets incredible pressure on opposing QB's.
Plus, if the Birds make the playoffs as say a #6 seed, travelling to Arizona is about as scary as "The Happening." Could it be??? A game to get in the NFC Championship??? Wow...
The Hawks and Falcons, however, are receiving the bulk of my attention. The high flying, rim shaking Hawks actually look like they want to play defense, hold leads, and are winning without Josh Smith and poor JJ performances! Who knew?
The Falcons are amazingly having a wonderful season. Matt Ryan is no longer a good draft pick. He is a slam dunk, franchise, future Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowl level quarterback. We have a STUD wide receiver in Roddy White, solid OL, and a DE that gets incredible pressure on opposing QB's.
Plus, if the Birds make the playoffs as say a #6 seed, travelling to Arizona is about as scary as "The Happening." Could it be??? A game to get in the NFC Championship??? Wow...
Saturday, November 8, 2008
College Football Thoughts...
Another crazy Saturday saw Penn St finally get exposed, Bama squeak out another win, and UGA give up a bunch of TD's again. I guess when your team gives up 125 points in 3 games, you should be happy they won 2 of them. However, the lack of speed and physicality on D is certainly a concern for UGA - I don't see them winning at Auburn and beating GT. One of two seems likely...
The new Top 25 will be interesting now that Texas Tech has won again. That TT at OU game will be huge for the BCS. Texas could realistically finish 11-1 (7-1) and in a 3 way tie for 1st in the Big 12 South and not advance to the Big 12 Championship Game because of a tie-breaker - BCS ranking. The computers love OU and a win over unbeaten TT would certainly put the Sooners ahead of Texas - as wrong as that is...
Another thing that concerns me - USC still considers itself a BCS Title contender even though Oregon St controls its own destiny for the Pac-10 title. After UGA heard all the "you don't deserve consideration for the BCS title game if you don't win your conference" argument last year, will USC receive similar treatment?
Furthermore, what if Mizzou beats OU in the Big 12 title game? Will Texas face the SEC Champ? They should, but we are back to the conference champion argument again. Is there a scenario that puts Penn St back in the game? I sure hope not...
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
7. Penn St
8. UGA
9. Ohio St
10. Utah
11. Boise St
12. Oklahoma St
13. Missouri
14. Ball St
15. North Carolina
16. Michigan St
17. LSU
18. South Carolina
19. TCU
20. BYU
21. Florida St
22. Oregon
23. Cincinnati
24. Pittsburgh
25. California
The new Top 25 will be interesting now that Texas Tech has won again. That TT at OU game will be huge for the BCS. Texas could realistically finish 11-1 (7-1) and in a 3 way tie for 1st in the Big 12 South and not advance to the Big 12 Championship Game because of a tie-breaker - BCS ranking. The computers love OU and a win over unbeaten TT would certainly put the Sooners ahead of Texas - as wrong as that is...
Another thing that concerns me - USC still considers itself a BCS Title contender even though Oregon St controls its own destiny for the Pac-10 title. After UGA heard all the "you don't deserve consideration for the BCS title game if you don't win your conference" argument last year, will USC receive similar treatment?
Furthermore, what if Mizzou beats OU in the Big 12 title game? Will Texas face the SEC Champ? They should, but we are back to the conference champion argument again. Is there a scenario that puts Penn St back in the game? I sure hope not...
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
7. Penn St
8. UGA
9. Ohio St
10. Utah
11. Boise St
12. Oklahoma St
13. Missouri
14. Ball St
15. North Carolina
16. Michigan St
17. LSU
18. South Carolina
19. TCU
20. BYU
21. Florida St
22. Oregon
23. Cincinnati
24. Pittsburgh
25. California
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Florida in good shape...
Tony Barnhardt of CBS and the AJC says that the most over-rated thing in all of sports is college football national championships. So much luck goes into getting to the BCS title game and Auburn will be the first to tell you that winning all your games isn't always good enough. Just look at LSU's two national titles this decade - they lost 1 game in 2003 and 2 games last year but had all the cards fall into place both times to give them their shot. In 2006, USC lost to UCLA as huge favorites allowing Florida to get a shot at their title. The 2002 UGA team was a mirror image of 2006 Florida - the only difference being that Michigan's last ditch throw on 4th down against Ohio State fell incomplete, allowing Ohio State to play Miami that year instead of the Dawgs.
It is hard for me to not openly root for one of these BCS titles. Mark Richt has the UGA program at the highest level but will never get full respect until the stars align one year and they win a national championship. He has UGA - even after the loss yesterday - well on the way to their 6th top 10 finish the last 7 years. Those 7 years also produced six 10 win seasons. Florida, in that same stretch, has just one 10 win season - 2006.
You would never know it by watching ESPN, but which program do you think has been more successful in recent history?
UGA
2002 - 13-1
2003 - 11-3
2004 - 10-2
2005 - 10-3
2006 - 9-4
2007 - 11-2
2008 - 7-2
Florida
2002 - 8-5
2003 - 8-5
2004 - 7-5
2005 - 9-3
2006 - 13-1
2007 - 9-4
2008 - 8-1
Time to move on now, another season without a title is all but assured. Lets place our ballot for the top 25 this week...
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma State
8. USC
9. UGA
10. Ohio State
11. Missouri
12. Boise State
13. TCU
14. Utah
15. Ball State
16. LSU
17. Kansas
18. California
19. Maryland
20. Georgia Tech
21. North Carolina
22. Florida State
23. West Virginia
24. South Carolina
25. BYU
It is hard for me to not openly root for one of these BCS titles. Mark Richt has the UGA program at the highest level but will never get full respect until the stars align one year and they win a national championship. He has UGA - even after the loss yesterday - well on the way to their 6th top 10 finish the last 7 years. Those 7 years also produced six 10 win seasons. Florida, in that same stretch, has just one 10 win season - 2006.
You would never know it by watching ESPN, but which program do you think has been more successful in recent history?
UGA
2002 - 13-1
2003 - 11-3
2004 - 10-2
2005 - 10-3
2006 - 9-4
2007 - 11-2
2008 - 7-2
Florida
2002 - 8-5
2003 - 8-5
2004 - 7-5
2005 - 9-3
2006 - 13-1
2007 - 9-4
2008 - 8-1
Time to move on now, another season without a title is all but assured. Lets place our ballot for the top 25 this week...
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma State
8. USC
9. UGA
10. Ohio State
11. Missouri
12. Boise State
13. TCU
14. Utah
15. Ball State
16. LSU
17. Kansas
18. California
19. Maryland
20. Georgia Tech
21. North Carolina
22. Florida State
23. West Virginia
24. South Carolina
25. BYU
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