Sunday, November 20, 2011

BCS in complete chaos

I guess we can throw out all the previous scenarios discussed on here after the unreal results of this past weekend. Enough craziness went down that even #11 Houston is coming up with ways this morning that they could play for the title.

Boise State is a failed 2-point conversion from being a clear favorite to take on LSU. For the second time in a month, OU decided not to show up on defense. Clemson went from dark-horse to Barbaro in one half. Oregon ran into a hungry USC with a hot QB and couldn't come back from an early deficit.

So, what now? It is likely that the polls and the BCS standings will have the same top 3 today/tonight:

1. LSU
2. Bama
3. Arkansas

All three from one half of a conference? That's what you get when 3 of the top 5 in the BCS Standings go down for the 1st time in 10 years. That year was also the last time a non-conference champion played for the title (Nebraska). I know the University presidents and BCS officials really do not want 2 SEC teams in the title game, but they are running out of other options.

The only 1-loss potential conference champs from BCS conferences not named the SEC are Oklahoma State, Stanford and Virginia Tech. However, Oregon would have to lose to Oregon St for Stanford to play for their title, VT has to beat UVA and Clemson (who smoked them in Blacksburg earlier), and Oklahoma St still has to play Oklahoma.

The question is, can any of these 1-loss teams jump a 1-loss non-conference champ in Alabama. I still think maybe, depending on what happens in some of these games.

Biggest loser from Friday night? Okie St
Biggest winner from Saturday night? Okie St

The Cowboys will probably not fall out of the top 5 and have a chance at getting back in the mix by beating OU in 2 weeks.

Here is how I would rank the top 25 this morning if I had a vote (which I should):

1. LSU
2. Bama
3. Arkansas
4. Oklahoma St
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Virginia Tech
8. Houston
9. Boise St
10. South Carolina
11. Georgia
12. Michigan St
13. Oklahoma
14. Kansas St
15. Wisconsin
16. Penn St
17. Michigan
18. USC
19. TCU
20. Clemson
21. Baylor
22. Notre Dame
23. Tulsa
24. Nebraska
25. Auburn

One final scenario: Oregon wins the Pac-12, OU wins the Big-12, LSU beats Arkansas, Auburn beats Alabama, UGA beats LSU, Clemson beats VT, MSU beats Wisconsin/Penn St. All of the BCS conference champions would have at least 2 losses. Would Houston or Boise St get a shot here, would LSU get in with just 1-loss, would UGA have a shot?

There is total chaos now, but it has a chance to get even more crazy...


William Satterwhite said...

"That year was also the last time a non-conference champion played for the title (Nebraska)."

Oklahoma technically* wasn't a conference champion when they played for the title in 2004.

I think Saturday's results ensure that no matter what, the SEC champion- even a two-loss UGA- will play for the championship. Alabama might still get in, but it wouldn't be at UGA's expense.

*The Big 12 in 2003 is the ultimate example of why I hate the idea of conference championship games- even with the loss against Kansas St, Oklahoma still had a better conference record than all other Big 12 teams by at least a full game.

Jeff said...

Good point William, I forgot about that OU team. I don't however, think UGA will play for the Title if they win out unless many other things happen. Too many teams to pass...